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006

Case 006Bond issuance and executionCore

Anantam Energy's Rs 1,000 crore ten-year bond draws a Rs 2,600 crore book from insurers, mutual funds, banks, hedge funds and corporate treasuries. The issuer wants long-term holders. How do you allocate, and what is each type's fill rate?

1The situation

Anantam Energy, a power generator with long-term supply contracts, prices a Rs 1,000 crore ten-year bond. The book closes at Rs 2,600 crore, 2.6x covered. Orders by type: insurers Rs 700 crore, mutual funds Rs 800 crore, banks Rs 500 crore, hedge funds Rs 400 crore and corporate treasuries Rs 200 crore.

The lead managers have discretion over allocation on this deal. Anantam's treasurer has asked for a register of long-term holders, because the company plans to come back to the market every year. From past deals the desk estimates how much of an allocation each type sells in the first week: hedge funds about 80%, corporate treasuries 30%, banks and mutual funds 10%, insurers almost none.

2Your task

Allocate the Rs 1,000 crore, show the fill rate for each type, and explain what your allocation does to the bond after it is freed to trade.

Quick check

Why not simply give everyone the same 38.5% of their order?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Allocate by how long each buyer is likely to hold: insurers 55% of their order, mutual funds 40%, banks 35%, corporate treasuries 30% and hedge funds 15%. That gives Rs 385, 320, 175, 60 and 60 crore. Real-money holders take 70.5% of the bond against 57.7% under pro-rata, and the bonds likely to be sold in the first week fall from about Rs 196 crore to Rs 116 crore, which steadies the price.

Step 1Why does allocation matter once the bond is sold?

Think of a popular concert where tickets go to whoever asks for the most. Touts ask for hundreds, get dozens, and the resale market floods on the night. A bond sold to buyers who intend to sell it quickly comes straight back onto the market, and that supply pushes the price down in the first days of trading. The issuer sees its new bond trade below issue price, and investors remember that on the next deal. A steady aftermarketTrading in a newly issued bond in its first days and weeks after it is freed to trade. is part of what the syndicate desk delivers.

Step 2How do you read a 2.6x book?

Not at face value. Some orders in a hot book are inflated, placed large in the knowledge that they will be cut back, so the real demand from each type is less than the order line shows. Insurers and mutual funds tend to order what they want; fast money often orders two or three times what it wants. Straight pro-rata, 38.5% for everyone, would give hedge funds about Rs 154 crore, rewarding exactly the padding you should discount.

A 2.6x book, allocated to holders rather than flippersInsurers385of 700: 55% fillMutual funds320of 800: 40% fillBanks175of 500: 35% fillHedge funds60of 400: 15% fillCorporate treasuries60of 200: 30% fillallocatedordered, not filledcut hardestpro-rata would be 38.5% each
Of a Rs 2,600 crore book, insurers receive Rs 385 crore of their Rs 700 crore order, mutual funds Rs 320 crore of Rs 800 crore, banks Rs 175 crore of Rs 500 crore, corporate treasuries Rs 60 crore of Rs 200 crore and hedge funds Rs 60 crore of Rs 400 crore, so fill rates run from 55% down to 15%.
Step 3What does the allocation do to first-week selling?

Apply the desk's selling estimates to both allocations. Under the discretionary allocation about Rs 116 crore is likely to be sold in the first week; under pro-rata it would be about Rs 196 crore, 1.7 times as much. Insurers and mutual funds end up holding 70.5% of the bond against 57.7% under pro-rata, which is the register the treasurer asked for.

Investor typeOrderAllocationFillSold in week 1Pro-rata allocationSold in week 1, pro-rata
Insurers70038555%0.0269.20.0
Mutual funds80032040%32.0307.730.8
Banks50017535%17.5192.319.2
Hedge funds4006015%48.0153.8123.1
Corporate treasuries2006030%18.076.923.1
Total2,6001,00038.5%115.51,000.0196.2
Rs crore. Weighting the allocation towards insurers and mutual funds cuts the bonds likely to be sold in the first week from about Rs 196.2 crore under pro-rata to Rs 115.5 crore.
Step 4Should hedge funds get anything at all?

Yes, a little. Fast money provides liquidity: it gives the bond a two-way market in the first days, and an issuer that returns every year benefits when its bonds are seen to trade. Cutting a type to zero also costs goodwill on the next deal, when the book may be thinner and every order counts. The skill is proportion, not exclusion. The 2.6x cover also gives you room to tighten the final yield, and price-sensitive orders that drop out when you do are telling you who was there for a quick gain.

Say the limit before you finish. On India's electronic bidding platform, allotment follows set rules rather than the banker's discretion, so this judgement belongs to bookbuilt deals such as offshore bonds and some private placements; confirm the current rules for the deal in front of you.

Where candidates lose it

The usual miss is allocating pro-rata and calling it fair. Pro-rata treats a padded order and a real order the same, and the bond pays for it in the first week of trading.

The opposite miss is shutting out fast money entirely. The issuer wants holders, but it also wants a bond that trades, and the desk wants those accounts in the next book.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The book is only 1.1x covered. How does your allocation change?
  • You tighten the yield by 10 basis points and Rs 300 crore of hedge fund orders drop. What does that tell you?
  • How would you allocate if the issuer wanted to widen its investor base abroad?
← Case 005Brahvi Airports handles 12 million passengers, earning Rs 400 each in regulated charges and Rs 250 each from shops and parking, at a 45% EBITDA margin. It needs Rs 3,000 crore of capex. How much debt can it carry at 1.4x cover over 15 years at 9%, and what does a tariff reset do?Case 007 →You are given Pellora Pharma's financials: EBITDA Rs 420 crore, debt Rs 700 crore, receivable days up from 95 to 130. Find the business drivers and credit issues, write your management meeting questions, and work out how much more debt it can take at a 3.0x leverage ceiling.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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