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016

Case 016Indian debt market executionCore

Mitravanshi Finance funds Rs 1,000 crore with three-month commercial paper at 7.3% instead of a one-year bond at 8.1%. What does it save in a year, what happens if the paper market shuts for a quarter, and what is a 0.25% backup line worth?

1The situation

Mitravanshi Finance, a lender to small businesses, has Rs 1,000 crore of loans running for two to three years. It funds them with three-month commercial paper at 7.3%, rolled four times a year, instead of a one-year bond at 8.1%.

The risk team estimates a 15% chance in any year that the paper market shuts for a quarter, as it has in past credit scares. A bank offers a committed backup line: a 0.25% yearly fee on Rs 1,000 crore, and 9.5% interest on any amount drawn. Without a line, the only way to repay maturing paper in a freeze would be to sell loans at about a 5% discount.

2Your task

Work out the yearly saving, the cost of a frozen quarter with and without the line, and whether the line is worth buying.

Quick check

In a year with a frozen quarter, how much of the saving is left if Mitravanshi has the line?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Commercial paper saves Rs 8 crore a year against the bond, and with the backup line it still saves about Rs 4.7 crore in an average year. The line costs Rs 2.5 crore a year, and in a frozen quarter drawing it at 9.5% costs Rs 5.5 crore more, wiping out that year's saving but nothing else. Without the line, a freeze forces a Rs 50 crore fire sale, so the line is worth buying.

Step 1Where does the saving come from, and what is its hidden cost?

Short money is usually cheaper than long money. 0.8 points on Rs 1,000 crore is Rs 8 crore a year. But the paper has to be repaid every three months while the loans it funds run for years, so Mitravanshi must find new buyers four times a year, and the saving is payment for carrying that rollover riskThe risk that maturing short-term debt cannot be replaced with new debt when it falls due, forcing the borrower to find cash elsewhere.. Think of a shop that pays its rent with a new loan from a friend every month: cheap, until the month the friend says no.

Step 2What does a frozen quarter cost?

Without a line, Mitravanshi must repay Rs 1,000 crore of maturing paper with no new buyers. The only source is selling loans in a hurry, and at a 5% discount that is a Rs 50 crore loss, more than six years of the saving in one quarter. With the line, it draws Rs 1,000 crore at 9.5% for the frozen quarter. The extra cost over paper is 2.2 points for a quarter of a year, Rs 5.5 crore.

Cheap short funding works until one rollover failsCP rollsat 7.3%Q1CP rollsat 7.3%Q2Paper market shutno buyers to rollQ3CP rollsat 7.3%Q4Backup line drawn9.5%: +5.5 croreCommitment fee on the unused line, 0.25% all year: Rs 2.5 croreSaving against a one-year bond: Rs 8.0 crore. Normal year after the fee: Rs 5.5 crore. Freeze year: Rs 0.0 crore.
Mitravanshi rolls its paper at 7.3% in three quarters, and when the market shuts in the third it draws the backup line at 9.5% for an extra Rs 5.5 crore, on top of a Rs 2.5 crore yearly fee, so a freeze year consumes the Rs 8 crore saving without threatening the company.
Rs crore a yearNormal yearFreeze yearExpected, 15% chance of a freeze
Saving against the bond8.08.08.0
Line fee(2.5)(2.5)(2.5)
Extra cost of drawing the line(5.5)(0.83)
With the line5.50.04.67
Without the line8.0-42.00.50
With the backup line, short funding saves Rs 5.5 crore in a normal year and about zero in a freeze year, an expected Rs 4.67 crore; without it, a freeze year loses Rs 42 crore and the expected saving falls to Rs 0.50 crore.
Step 3So is the line worth 0.25%?

Compare the averages first. With the line, the expected yearly saving is about Rs 4.67 crore; without it, about Rs 0.50 crore, because a 15% chance of a Rs 50 crore fire sale eats nearly the whole saving. Then compare the worst years, which matter more for a lender: with the line the worst year is zero, without it the worst year is a large loss that could also trigger a rating downgrade and make the next rollover harder still.

Two limits to state. A committed line is only as good as the bank's willingness to fund it in a crisis, so spread lines across several banks and read the conditions that let a bank refuse to lend. And the line fixes a timing problem, not a mismatch: a lender funding three-year loans with three-month paper should keep most of its book on longer funding and use paper for a slice. Confirm current rules on paper tenors and backup requirements before relying on any structure.

Where candidates lose it

The usual miss is presenting the Rs 8 crore saving as free money. It is payment for rollover risk, and the question is whether that risk is priced and covered.

The second is judging the line by whether it gets used. Most years it does not, and the fee looks wasted. The line is bought for the one quarter that would otherwise force a fire sale, and that quarter is what the averages must include.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The chance of a freeze rises to 30%. Is short funding still worth it?
  • Would you rather have a line from one bank or three smaller lines?
  • How would you use part of the book's own loan repayments as a liquidity buffer?
← Case 015Sahajik Finance's loan tape has 2,000 borrowers in four internal grades with a year of default counts. Compute the default rate by grade and the expected loss at 55% loss given default, check whether the grades rank risk correctly, and suggest pricing by grade.Case 017 →Rushali Ceramics can be liquidated or sold as a going concern at 5x EBITDA of Rs 60 crore. Liquidation would realise 80% of Rs 120 crore of receivables, 50% of Rs 90 crore of inventory and 30% of Rs 250 crore of plant. Debt is Rs 350 crore. Which route gives creditors more?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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