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041

Case 041Credit analysis and ratingsHard

Mervaka Retail, a footwear and apparel chain, reports EBITDA of Rs 500 crore and debt of Rs 600 crore, but pays Rs 200 crore a year of rent on long store leases. Which credit metrics would you look at, and what is leverage on a lease-adjusted basis?

TSTruist SecuritiesAtlanta · 2024

1The situation

Mervaka Retail sells branded footwear and apparel through 420 leased stores. Sales are Rs 4,000 crore, and its management accounts show EBITDA of Rs 500 crore after Rs 200 crore of store rent. Debt is Rs 600 crore at about 9%. Most leases run nine years with lock-in periods, and the contribution margin on lost sales is about 40%.

The company is seeking a new term loan and presents itself as a 1.2x levered credit. You are asked to review it for your bank's leveraged finance desk.

2Your task

List the credit metrics that matter for a store-based retailer, recompute leverage and cover with the leases treated as debt, and test a 10% fall in sales.

Quick check

Treating rent as debt at 8x, roughly what is lease-adjusted leverage?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Lease-adjusted leverage is about 3.1x, not 1.2x, and rent plus interest is covered only 2.8x. Capitalising Rs 200 crore of rent at 8x adds Rs 1,600 crore of debt-like obligations, and EBITDAR of Rs 700 crore is the matching earnings figure. For a store-based retailer the metrics that matter are lease-adjusted leverage, fixed charge cover, free cash flow after capex, inventory turns and same-store sales, because rent does not fall when sales do.

Step 1Why are leases debt for a retailer?

A family that owns its house with a small mortgage and a family that rents with a nine-year lock-in both owe a fixed sum every month; only one of them shows it as a loan. For a store-based retailer, long leases are debt in all but name: fixed, contractual, and senior in practice, because a store cannot trade without its lease. Mervaka's Rs 200 crore of rent is four times its interest bill. Ignoring it compares Mervaka with a retailer that owns its stores, which it is not.

Step 2What does leverage look like once the leases are counted?

Adjust both halves of the ratio. Capitalise rent at a multiple, 8x being a long-standing convention, adding Rs 1,600 crore to debt, and add rent back to EBITDA to get EBITDAREarnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and rent: the earnings available to pay both lenders and landlords.. Rs 2,200 crore over Rs 700 crore is 3.14x, and fixed charge cover, EBITDAR over interest plus rent, is 2.76x against a reported interest cover of 9.3x. Under Ind AS 116 and IFRS 16 most leases already sit on the balance sheet as lease liabilities; agencies now generally use that figure rather than a multiple, so confirm the current methodology.

Put the rent back and a 1.2x retailer becomes a 3.1x oneLeverage, times1.20xReported3.14xLease-adjusteddebt / EBITDA(debt + 8x rent) / EBITDARCover, times9.26xEBITDA / interest2.76xEBITDAR / (int + rent)
Reported, Mervaka is levered 1.2x with interest covered 9.3x; with Rs 200 crore of rent capitalised at 8x, leverage is 3.14x and EBITDAR covers interest plus rent only 2.76x.
Step 3What happens when sales fall?

Rent does not fall with sales, so the leases amplify the downturn. A 10% sales fall at a 40% contribution margin takes Rs 160 crore off EBITDA, to Rs 340 crore; reported leverage rises to only 1.76x, but lease-adjusted leverage reaches 4.07x and fixed charge cover falls to 2.13x. The reported metrics would still pass most covenants while the business was under real strain. That is exactly the gap a lender to retailers is paid to see.

A 10% sales fall: reported leverage still looks safe; lease-adjusted does not1.20x1.76xReported leverage3.14x4.07xLease-adjusted leverage2.76x2.13xFixed charge covertodaysales down 10%Rent of Rs 200 crore stays fixed, so every rupee of lost contribution comes off EBITDAR
After a 10% sales fall, reported leverage rises from 1.20x to 1.76x, while lease-adjusted leverage rises from 3.14x to 4.07x and fixed charge cover falls from 2.76x to 2.13x.
Step 4Which other metrics would you ask for?

Four more, each for a reason. Same-store sales growth, because total sales can grow from new stores while existing ones decline; inventory days and markdowns, because fashion stock loses value by the season; free cash flow after capex and new store openings; and liquidity, meaning cash plus undrawn lines against seasonal peaks. Lease terms matter too: how many stores can be exited, and at what cost, decides how quickly rent can be cut. The view: underwrite Mervaka as a 3x credit and size the new loan and covenants on lease-adjusted numbers.

Where candidates lose it

The usual slip is accepting 1.2x and moving on, or remembering leases but adjusting only the numerator. Adding Rs 1,600 crore to debt while keeping EBITDA after rent gives 4.4x, which double counts the rent.

The second is listing generic metrics. For a retailer the interviewer wants rent named, and the reason it matters: it is fixed while sales are not.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Why is 8x a crude multiple, and what would you use instead?
  • How does IFRS 16 change reported EBITDA and interest cover for a retailer?
  • Mervaka plans 60 new stores next year. Which metric do you watch most closely?
  • What covenant would you set for a retailer that you would not set for a manufacturer?

Asked at Truist Securities, Leveraged Finance, Atlanta, 2024 (Wall Street Oasis): What credit metrics would you look at when analyzing a company like Nike

← Case 040Velkora Warehousing Park has gross potential rent of Rs 48 crore, 8% vacancy and operating costs of 20% of effective income. Get to value at an 8% cap rate, then size a refinancing loan at 60% loan-to-value and 1.4x debt service cover. Which test binds?Case 042 →Compute the borrowing base for Samvera Distributors: receivables of Rs 400 crore and inventory of Rs 300 crore across raw material, work in progress and finished goods, against a Rs 350 crore asset-based line. What is available?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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