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044

Case 044Restructuring and recoveriesHard

A second lien holder in Vrishank Motors buys the whole senior loan at 70 to control the restructuring. Senior debt is Rs 500 crore, second lien Rs 300 crore, and it values the business at Rs 550 crore. Work out the loan-to-own economics.

1The situation

Vrishank Motors, a maker of three-wheelers, has defaulted. It owes Rs 500 crore of senior secured loans and Rs 300 crore of second lien debt. The senior loans trade at 70; the second lien trades near 20. A credit fund already holds Rs 100 crore of the second lien, bought at 20, and now buys all Rs 500 crore of the senior loans at 70.

The fund values the business at Rs 550 crore. Any restructuring plan will leave the reorganised company with Rs 250 crore of new senior debt, the most it can carry, and hand out the rest of the value as equity in order of priority.

2Your task

Work out the fund's cost, its recovery and the share of equity it ends up owning, test it at other values, and explain why it bought the senior rather than more second lien.

Quick check

At the fund's value of Rs 550 crore, roughly what share of the reorganised equity does it end up owning?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The fund pays Rs 370 crore and, at a value of Rs 550 crore, receives Rs 250 crore of new debt plus 88.9% of the equity, worth about Rs 517 crore: a gain of about Rs 147 crore. It bought the senior because the senior class, paid largely in equity, decides the plan and takes the company. If value is only Rs 350 crore, as the price of 70 implies, it still gets its senior money back and owns 100%, losing only the Rs 20 crore second lien stake.

Step 1What is a loan-to-own strategy?

Picture a shop owner behind on rent, whose landlord has sold the rent arrears to a rival shopkeeper at a discount. The rival now holds the claim that decides whether the shop is evicted, and can take it over on its own terms. Loan-to-own means buying the debt that will be converted into equity, at a discount, so that you end up owning the company. The class to own is the fulcrumThe most senior class of claims that will not be repaid in full in cash or new debt, and so receives the reorganised equity.: at a price of 70 the market believes value stops inside the senior loan.

The same stack, two views of value: where value runs out decides who owns the companySenior 500buyer owns all, at 70buyer holds 100of this, bought at 20Second lien 300market: 350buyer: 550price of 70 impliesPlan at value 550New senior debt250Equity value300To old senior250 debt + 250 eqTo second lien50 eqBuyer owns88.9% of equityRs crore
At the market's implied value of Rs 350 crore value runs out inside the senior loan; at the fund's Rs 550 crore it covers the senior and reaches Rs 50 crore into the second lien, and the plan gives the fund about 88.9% of the equity.
Step 2What are the economics at Rs 550 crore?

Cost first: Rs 500 crore of senior at 70 is Rs 350 crore, plus Rs 20 crore paid earlier for the second lien, Rs 370 crore. The plan leaves Rs 250 crore of new debt and Rs 300 crore of equity. The senior's Rs 500 crore claim takes all the new debt and Rs 250 crore of equity; the second lien's Rs 300 crore claim gets Rs 50 crore of equity, a third of it the fund's. The fund holds Rs 250 crore of new debt and about Rs 267 crore of equity, 88.9% of the company: Rs 517 crore on Rs 370 crore, about 1.40x.

Step 3How does it look if the fund is wrong about value?

Test the market's view. At Rs 350 crore, equity is Rs 100 crore, all of it to the senior; the second lien gets nothing. The fund receives Rs 350 crore for its senior, exactly what it paid, and loses only the Rs 20 crore second lien stake, while owning 100% of the company. At Rs 700 crore the second lien recovers more, so the fund's share falls to 70%, but its value rises to Rs 567 crore. Buying the senior at the market's fulcrum price caps the downside and keeps the upside.

Buyer's recovery against its Rs 370 crore cost, by enterprise value, Rs crorecost 370new debt 250equity 100Value 350gets 350, -20owns 100% of equitynew debt 250equity 267Value 550gets 517, +147owns 89% of equitynew debt 250equity 317Value 700gets 567, +197owns 70% of equity
Against a cost of Rs 370 crore the fund receives Rs 350 crore at a value of Rs 350 crore, Rs 517 crore at Rs 550 crore and Rs 567 crore at Rs 700 crore, owning 100%, 89% and 70% of the equity.
Step 4Why buy the senior rather than more second lien?

Because control follows the class that votes on the plan and receives the equity. Owning all the senior class lets the fund propose and carry a plan that converts its own claim into the company, while the second lien alone, being junior, can be crammed down. In India, resolution under the insolvency code is decided by the committee of creditors voting by value, and the voting threshold and the treatment of dissenting creditors are set by the rules, so confirm the current thresholds. The risks: the fund's value may be too high, other creditors may challenge the plan, and it must run a three-wheeler maker once it owns it.

Where candidates lose it

The usual slip is valuing the senior at par because Rs 550 crore covers Rs 500 crore and stopping there. The point is that the reorganised company can carry only Rs 250 crore of debt, so the senior is paid mostly in equity, and whoever holds it owns the company.

The second is ignoring the downside. A loan-to-own case is judged on what happens if you are wrong about value; here buying at the market's price means the senior is made whole even at Rs 350 crore.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The fund buys only 60% of the senior. Can it still control the outcome?
  • What would the second lien holders do to resist the plan?
  • How would a new money injection by the fund change the equity split?
  • At what enterprise value does the fund's total position break even?
← Case 043A sponsor is buying Tarvik Education at 9x EBITDA of Rs 150 crore with 5x debt, and the cost of debt rises from 9% to 11% before signing. How does that move the sponsor's IRR, and how much less must it pay to keep a 20% IRR?Case 045 →Sriyansh Cement can issue three years at 7.9%, five years at 8.2% or ten years at 8.6%, and already has Rs 1,200 crore maturing in year 3. Which tenor would you recommend, and why is the cheapest coupon not the answer?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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