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047

Case 047Indian debt market executionCore

Udayachal Highways' bond is rated BBB on its own. A bank's partial credit enhancement covering 20% of the bond lifts it to AA and cuts the coupon by 150 basis points on Rs 1,000 crore, for a fee of 1.2% a year on the amount covered. Is it worth it, and what does the investor now rely on?

1The situation

Udayachal Highways owns a completed toll road and wants to refinance its bank loans with a Rs 1,000 crore ten-year amortising bond. On a standalone basis the bond would be rated BBB and would need a coupon of about 10.0%, a level many insurers and pension funds cannot buy.

A bank offers a partial credit enhancement: an irrevocable facility that pays any shortfall in debt service up to 20% of the bond, Rs 200 crore. With it, the agency would rate the bond AA and the coupon would be about 8.5%. The bank charges 1.2% a year on the Rs 200 crore covered. Base-case toll cash covers debt service 1.25 times.

2Your task

Put a number on the saving net of the fee, explain why a 20% enhancement lifts the rating so far, and say what the investor now depends on.

Quick check

Why can covering only 20% of the bond lift it from BBB to AA?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Yes: the coupon saving of Rs 15 crore a year far exceeds the Rs 2.4 crore fee, a net Rs 12.6 crore a year, about Rs 83 crore over ten years in present value. A 20% enhancement lifts the rating because realistic stresses create shortfalls much smaller than 20% of the bond. The investor now relies on the toll road for most of the money and on the bank's standing and commitment for the part that matters in a bad year.

Step 1How can a small guarantee move a rating so far?

A student with a modest salary is offered a flat once a parent agrees to cover up to three months' rent if he ever falls short. The parent is not guaranteeing the whole lease, only the gap that a bad month would open. A partial credit enhancementA bank facility that pays shortfalls in a bond’s debt service up to a fixed share of the bond, so investors are protected against the losses most likely to occur. lifts a rating far more than its size because it absorbs the shortfalls a stress actually produces, not a total loss. Annual debt service is about Rs 152 crore. If toll cash falls 30% from its 1.25x base case, the gap is about Rs 19 crore a year.

A 20% guarantee absorbs the shortfall a stress creates, year after year191Base-case cash152Debt service133Stressed cashgap 19Enhancement20% of 1,000 = Rs 200 crFunds a 19 a year gapfor about 10 yearsRated on the bank's strengthfor the part that mattersRs crore a year. Illustrative stress: toll cash flow 30% below base case.
In a stress where toll cash flow falls 30%, Udayachal's Rs 133 crore of cash leaves a Rs 19 crore gap against Rs 152 crore of annual debt service, which the Rs 200 crore enhancement can fund for about 10 years.
Step 2Is it worth the fee?

Compare the two numbers on their own bases. The fee is 1.2% on Rs 200 crore, Rs 2.4 crore a year; the saving is 1.5% on the full Rs 1,000 crore, Rs 15 crore a year, so Udayachal keeps Rs 12.6 crore a year. Discounted at 8.5% over ten years that is about Rs 83 crore. The saving is overstated slightly, since an amortising bond's balance falls over time, but not enough to change the answer. There is also a benefit no coupon captures: an AA bond reaches insurers and pension funds that cannot hold BBB.

The fee is charged on 20% of the bond; the saving is earned on all of itCoupon saving, 150 bp on 1,00015.0Fee, 1.2% on 2002.4Net saving a year12.6 a year, PV about 83
The enhancement saves Rs 15 crore a year of coupon for a fee of Rs 2.4 crore a year, a net saving of Rs 12.6 crore a year and about Rs 83 crore over ten years in present value.
Step 3What does the investor now rely on?

Two things, and the second is easy to forget. The investor relies on the toll road for most of the money and on the bank's credit and commitment for the rest, so a downgrade of the bank can pull the bond's rating down even if traffic is fine. The investor should read how the facility is drawn, whether drawn amounts are replenished, and where the bank's reimbursement ranks against bondholders. In India, bank partial credit enhancement is governed by RBI rules on how much a bank may provide and how it is capitalised; confirm the current framework before structuring.

Where candidates lose it

The usual slip is comparing the 1.2% fee with the 1.5% saving and calling the margin thin. The fee applies to Rs 200 crore and the saving to Rs 1,000 crore, so the saving is more than six times the fee.

The second is treating the AA rating as the project's own. It is borrowed from the bank; if the bank is downgraded, the bond can follow, and an investor who ignores the bank has misread the security.

What the interviewer asks next

  • What happens to the bond if the enhancing bank is downgraded to A?
  • Would a larger enhancement, say 30%, be worth paying for?
  • How should the fee be structured as the bond amortises?
  • Why might an insurer prefer this bond to a AA corporate bond with the same coupon?
← Case 046Sarvagya Pipes has Rs 400 crore of surplus cash. It can pay a special dividend or repay a 9.5% term loan. What does each do to leverage and earnings, and which would a lender prefer?Case 048 →Brahmila Cement's Rs 500 crore 10% bond is callable at 101 with four years left. It can issue new four-year bonds at 8.2% with issue costs of 0.5%. What is the net present value of calling and refinancing?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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