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054

Case 054Credit analysis and ratingsCore

Superday case: a packaged foods company asks for a revolving credit facility to fund its festive season. Estimate the peak borrowing need, size the facility and propose two covenants.

1The situation

Ambrila Foods sells Rs 1,500 crore a year of packaged snacks and sweets. 40% of sales, Rs 600 crore, fall in the festive quarter of October to December, so those months sell Rs 200 crore each and the other nine months Rs 100 crore each. Cost of goods is 70% of sales.

Ambrila holds stock equal to the next two months' cost of goods, gives trade customers 45 days to pay and pays suppliers in 30 days. Its long-term funds, equity and a term loan, already cover the lowest working capital need of the year. It asks for a Rs 250 crore revolving credit facility for the rest.

2Your task

What is the seasonal peak need, is Rs 250 crore the right size, and which two covenants would you ask for?

Quick check

The average working capital need over the year is Rs 275 crore and the lowest is Rs 220 crore. How big must the revolver be at least?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The need peaks at about Rs 440 crore in November, Rs 220 crore above the trough that long-term money covers, so a Rs 250 crore revolver is about right. Stock builds from August for the festive quarter and receivables peak after it. Rs 250 crore leaves Rs 30 crore, about 14%, of headroom. Protect it with a borrowing base and a yearly clean-down.

Step 1Why does the need rise before the sales do?

Think of a firecracker shop before Diwali. It buys and pays for its stock weeks before the first customer arrives, and some of its bulk buyers pay only after the festival. Cash goes out first, into stock, and comes back last, from receivables, so the borrowing peak sits between the two. For Ambrila, holding the next two months' cost of goods means stock jumps in August and September as the festive months come into view. Receivables of 45 days peak in November and December, when sales are high. Payables of 30 days offset only part of it.

Month end, Rs croreAugSepOctNovDecJan
Sales in the month100100200200200100
Stock: next two months' cost of goods210280280210140140
Receivables: 45 days of sales150150250300300200
Payables: this month's purchases(140)(140)(140)(70)(70)(70)
Working capital need220290390440370270
Ambrila's need is Rs 220 crore from February to August, rises in September as the stock build outruns supplier credit, and peaks at Rs 440 crore in November when receivables from the festive months are at their highest.
A revolver is sized to the seasonal peak, not the yearly average100200300400500270Jan220Feb220Mar220Apr220May220Jun220Jul220Aug290Sep390Oct440Nov370DecLong-term funds 220 + revolver 250 = 470Average need 275: a revolver sized here covers only 55Trough 220: funded by long-term moneyRs crore at each month end. Shaded tops are drawings on the revolver; festive quarter is October to December.
Long-term funds cover Ambrila's Rs 220 crore trough, so the revolver carries the swing above it, up to Rs 220 crore in November; a Rs 250 crore facility leaves Rs 30 crore of headroom, while one sized on the yearly average would cover only Rs 55 crore.
Step 2Is Rs 250 crore the right number?

The model says the revolver must carry Rs 220 crore at the November peak. Headroom of 10% to 15% over the modelled peak is sensible, because a late festival, a slow-paying distributor or a jump in input prices moves the peak up. Rs 250 crore is 14% above Rs 220 crore, so the ask is reasonable. Stress it: if festive sales come in 10% higher, receivables and stock rise together and the revolver need at the peak becomes about Rs 264 crore, more than the facility. A good season, not a bad one, is what breaks a seasonal line. That argues for Rs 250 crore committed plus an accordion option to add Rs 25 to 50 crore on request, which is the conversation to have with the client before signing.

Step 3Which two covenants protect a seasonal revolver?

First, a borrowing baseA cap on drawings set as a percentage of eligible receivables and stock, so the loan can never exceed the assets that repay it.: drawings limited to 75% of eligible receivables plus 50% of stock. At the November peak that allows about Rs 330 crore, comfortably above Rs 220 crore, but it shrinks automatically if receivables go bad. Second, a yearly clean-down: drawings reduced to zero, or close to it, for 30 consecutive days, which proves the facility is funding a season and not a permanent hole. In this model the need is back to the trough from February to August, so Ambrila can meet it easily. If it cannot, the working capital has become long-term debt in disguise, and the bank should know.

Where candidates lose it

The common mistake is sizing the revolver from annual averages: Rs 1,500 crore of sales, 45 days of receivables, and so on. That gives a number close to the yearly average need and misses the festive peak by Rs 165 crore.

The second is counting the whole Rs 440 crore peak as revolver need, forgetting that long-term money already funds the Rs 220 crore trough. Say what funds the base and what funds the swing.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Festive sales arrive two weeks late. What happens to the peak and to the borrowing base?
  • Would you secure the revolver, and on what?
  • How would you price the undrawn part of the facility?
← Case 053A steel company with surplus cash can buy back its expensive bonds at a premium through a tender offer. Is paying 104 for 9.5% bonds worth it when the cash earns 7%?Case 055 →A metals company needs Rs 600 crore for a new plant and can issue bonds at 8.5% or shares at 20x earnings. Compare EPS in year 1 and year 3, leverage, and the rating effect, and choose.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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