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061

Case 061Debt capacity and loan structuringCore

Direct lending model: project a unitranche loan to a hotel group for five years with 1% amortisation and a 50% excess cash sweep, then work out the lender's yield if it buys the loan at 98.

1The situation

A direct lender is asked to provide Quilona Hotels with a Rs 600 crore unitranche loan at 11.5% fixed, interest paid yearly on the opening balance. The loan repays 1% of the original amount, Rs 6 crore, each year, and 50% of excess cash flow is swept to prepay it at par. The lender funds the loan at 98, keeping a 2% discount.

Quilona's EBITDA is Rs 150 crore, expected to grow 12% a year as new rooms open. Maintenance capex and depreciation are both Rs 25 crore a year, tax is 25% of profit after interest, and working capital is flat. Excess cash flow is EBITDA less capex, interest, tax and the scheduled amortisation. Assume the loan is refinanced at par at the end of year 5.

2Your task

What do the debt balance and leverage look like over five years, and what yield does the lender earn?

Quick check

Bought at 98 with an 11.5% coupon and repaid over about five years, roughly what does the lender earn?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Leverage falls from 4.0x to about 1.65x by year 5 and the debt from Rs 600 crore to about Rs 390 crore; bought at 98, the lender earns about 12.11%. The sweep repays about Rs 180 crore early as EBITDA grows. The discount does most of the work on yield; the sweep does most of the work on risk, leaving Rs 180 crore less debt at refinancing.

Step 1How does a cash sweep work, year by year?

Imagine a landlord who agrees that, whenever a tenant's business has a good year, half of the spare cash goes to paying off the tenant's arrears. A bad year costs the tenant nothing extra; a good year pays the debt down faster. A cash sweepA loan term requiring the borrower to use a set share of its excess cash flow each year to prepay the loan. ties repayment to performance: the better Quilona does, the faster the loan shrinks. Each year, start from EBITDA, take off capex, interest on the opening balance and tax, then the Rs 6 crore of scheduled amortisation. Half of what is left prepays the loan; the other half stays with the owners.

Rs croreYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
EBITDA150.0168.0188.2210.7236.0
Opening debt600.0576.0544.2503.5452.6
Interest at 11.5%(69.0)(66.2)(62.6)(57.9)(52.0)
Tax at 25%(14.0)(19.2)(25.1)(32.0)(39.7)
Excess cash flow after capex and Rs 6 crore amortisation36.051.669.489.9113.2
Sweep, 50%(18.0)(25.8)(34.7)(44.9)(56.6)
Closing debt576.0544.2503.5452.6389.9
Debt / EBITDA3.84x3.24x2.68x2.15x1.65x
The sweep takes Rs 18 crore in year 1 rising to Rs 57 crore in year 5 as EBITDA grows and interest falls, cutting the debt to Rs 390 crore and leverage to 1.65x by year 5.
The sweep pulls the debt down while EBITDA grows2004006003.84xYear 13.24xYear 22.68xYear 32.15xYear 41.65xYear 5Close1% only: 570with sweep: 390Shaded: 180 repaid early by the 50% sweepDebt,Rs croreBought at 98: yield 12.11% with the sweep, 12.07% without, against an 11.50% coupon
With only 1% amortisation Quilona would still owe Rs 570 crore in year 5, 2.41x EBITDA; the 50% sweep repays about Rs 180 crore more, taking the loan to Rs 390 crore and 1.65x, and the lender buying at 98 earns about 12.11%.
Step 2What yield does the lender earn, and where does it come from?

Lay out the lender's cash flows: Rs 588 crore paid out at the start, then each year's interest, amortisation and sweep, and the remaining balance at par at the end of year 5. The rate that sets their present value equal to Rs 588 crore is 12.11%. Bought at par, the same loan would yield exactly the 11.50% coupon, so the 2 point original issue discountA loan or bond sold below par; the gap is earned back as the principal is repaid at 100. adds about 0.6% a year. Without the sweep the yield would be 12.07%: the sweep returns principal sooner, so the discount is earned back a little faster, but here the difference is only a few hundredths of a percent because the loan is refinanced in year 5 either way.

Step 3So what is the sweep really worth to the lender?

Its value is in risk, not yield. With the sweep, Quilona reaches year 5 at 1.65x instead of 2.41x, so the refinancing the lender depends on is far easier and a bad year hurts far less. Hotels are cyclical: a slow tourist season or a delay in opening the new rooms would stall the 12% growth. The limit of the model is that it assumes growth arrives on time. Run the downside before signing: if EBITDA stays flat at Rs 150 crore, excess cash flow is only about Rs 36 to 45 crore a year, the sweep repays only about Rs 18 to 22 crore a year, and leverage would still be about 3.1x in year 5, roughly double the base case. A lender comfortable with that case can lend; one that needs the growth to be safe should not.

Where candidates lose it

The usual modelling error is charging interest on the closing balance or an average without saying so. Interest on the opening balance is simple and avoids a circular reference; state the convention before you build.

The second is treating the discount as a loss, or adding the whole 2 points to one year's return. It is a gain earned over the life of the loan, so the yield rises by about 0.6% a year, not 2%.

What the interviewer asks next

  • If the loan were refinanced at the end of year 3, what would the yield be?
  • What happens to the lender's yield if the sweep falls to 25% once leverage is below 3.0x?
  • How would you add a leverage covenant to this model, and at what level would you set it?
← Case 060A plastics company is sold for Rs 300 crore. It has secured debt, unsecured debt and preference shares. What does each class recover?Case 062 →A company issues Rs 300 crore of three-year bonds at 8.40% and pays an arranger fee plus rating, trustee and listing costs. What is its all-in cost of funds?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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