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011

Case 011Structured products and client solutionsHard

A client signs a one-year accumulator: buy 1,000 shares a day at Rs 900 on a Rs 1,000 stock, the deal ends if it closes above 1,050, and the client buys 2,000 a day below 900. Work three price paths.

1The situation

A private banking client signs a one-year accumulator on Pench Valley Tea, which trades at Rs 1,000. Every trading day for 250 days the client buys 1,000 shares at Rs 900, a 10% discount. If the stock closes above Rs 1,050 on any day the contract ends immediately, with no further purchases. On any day the stock closes below Rs 900, the client must buy 2,000 shares at Rs 900 instead of 1,000.

Three paths are to be worked. Path A: the stock rises 6% in the second week, to 1,060 on day 8, after seven days of purchases. Path B: the stock drifts to 950 and stays there all year. Path C: the stock slides, falling through 900 after 40 trading days and reaching 700 by the end of month three, where it stays.

2Your task

For each path, how many shares does the client end up with, what has the client paid, and what is the position worth against the market? Then say what the product really is.

Quick check

Before working the paths: which outcome is the client most exposed to?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Path A ends after seven days with 7,000 shares and a gain of about Rs 11.2 lakh; path B delivers 250,000 shares for Rs 22.5 crore, worth Rs 1.25 crore more at 950; path C delivers 460,000 shares for Rs 41.4 crore, a loss of Rs 9.2 crore at 700. The discount is the premium for a strip of puts the client has sold in double size, and the knock-out caps the only path on which the client wins.

Step 1What happens on each path, day by day?

A shop that offers you 10% off milk every day, but cancels the offer the moment milk gets dear and forces you to buy double when nobody wants milk, is not giving you a discount. On path A the stock closes at 1,060 on day 8, above the 1,050 barrier, so the contract ends after seven purchases: 7,000 shares at 900 against a market of 1,060, a gain of 160 a share, Rs 11.2 lakh, and the remaining 243 days of discount vanish. On path B the stock sits at 950 all year: 1,000 shares a day for 250 days is 250,000 shares for Rs 22.5 crore, worth 50 a share more at the year's end, Rs 1.25 crore. Path B is the one the brochure is written about.

Shares bought each day on three paths: gains stop early, losses doubleA: +6% in week 2B: drifts to 950C: 700 by month 3day 0day 50day 100day 150day 200day 250knock-out at 1,060 on day 8: 7,000 shares bought, deal overthe remaining 243 days of discount are gone1,000 a day for 250 days: 250,000 shares at 900below 900 from day 41: 2,000 a day for 210 days, 460,000 shares in all1,000/daydoubling zone startsBar height is shares per day; bar length is how long the buying lasts. Only path B keeps the discount all year.
On path A the buying stops after seven days at the knock-out; on path B it runs at 1,000 shares a day for 250 days, 250,000 shares; on path C it runs at 1,000 a day for 40 days and then 2,000 a day for 210 days below 900, 460,000 shares, with nothing to stop it.

Path C is where the product shows its construction. For the first 40 days the stock is above 900 and the client buys 1,000 a day, 40,000 shares. From day 41 the stock is below 900 and the doubling featureA clause in an accumulator that requires the client to buy twice the daily quantity on any day the stock closes below the strike, which is where the dealer recovers the discount. applies: 2,000 shares a day for the remaining 210 days, 4,20,000 shares. The client ends with 460,000 shares bought at 900 for Rs 41.4 crore, and at a market of 700 the position is worth Rs 9.2 crore less than it cost. There is no barrier on the way down, so the losses run until the contract expires.

PathDays buyingSharesPaid, Rs croreMarket at year endGain or loss
A: knocked out day 877,0000.631,060+Rs 11.2 lakh
B: drifts to 950250250,00022.50950+Rs 1.25 crore
C: 700 from month 3250, doubled from day 41460,00041.40700-Rs 9.2 crore
The best path makes Rs 11.2 lakh on 7,000 shares before being cancelled, the brochure path makes Rs 1.25 crore, and the falling path loses Rs 9.2 crore on 460,000 shares, more than six times the brochure gain.
Step 2What is the product, really?

Strip it into options and the discount explains itself. Each day the client is long a call struck at 900, which is why buying at 900 below 1,050 is a gain, and short two puts struck at 900, which is why the quantity doubles below 900; the knock-out makes every call disappear once the stock is 1,050 or higher. The client has sold a strip of puts in double size to fund a strip of knocked-out calls, and the 10% discount is the net premium of that package paid out as a lower purchase price. Path A shows the calls being cancelled, path C shows the puts being exercised, and the dealer is hedged on both.

Year-end result on each path: a capped gain against a doubled lossA: knocked out week 2Shares bought at 9007,000Cash paidRs 63.0 lakhMark against market at year end+Rs 11.2 lakh160 x 7,000B: drifts to 950Shares bought at 900250,000Cash paidRs 22.50 croreMark against market at year end+Rs 1.25 crore50 x 250,000C: falls to 700Shares bought at 900460,000Cash paidRs 41.40 croreMark against market at year end-Rs 9.2 crore200 x 460,000
At year end path A has 7,000 shares and a gain of Rs 11.2 lakh, path B has 250,000 shares and a gain of Rs 1.25 crore, and path C has 460,000 shares bought for Rs 41.4 crore and a loss of Rs 9.2 crore, the asymmetry that earned the product its nickname.
Step 3What would you tell the client before signing?

Three things, with numbers. The maximum commitment is 500,000 shares at 900, Rs 45 crore, if the stock is below 900 every day, so the client needs that cash or that credit line, not the Rs 22.5 crore of the brochure case. The gain is capped by the barrier at roughly 150 a share on whatever has been bought before the knock-out. And the client should want the stock at 900 or lower anyway, because the product is a commitment to buy it there in size. Say the limits of the working: the paths are stylised, dividends and the mark-to-market collateral the dealer will demand on path C are ignored, and the valuation of the strip depends on the stock's volatility and skew, which is what a desk would price before quoting the 10%.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates work path B, see Rs 1.25 crore of gain, and call the product a discount purchase plan. The interviewer is waiting for path C, where the doubling turns a Rs 22.5 crore plan into a Rs 41.4 crore commitment on a falling stock.

The second loss is treating the knock-out as a protection. It protects the dealer: it removes the client's calls on the one path where they would have paid, and leaves the client's puts untouched on the path where they cost the most.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Price the daily package roughly: what does one 900 call less two 900 puts cost on a 1,000 stock, and how does that relate to the 10% discount?
  • The client asks for a knock-out on the downside too. What happens to the discount?
  • How would the dealer hedge this on day one, and what does it do as the stock approaches 1,050?
  • Why do these products sell best after a long rally?
← Case 010A company pays fixed 7.5% semi-annually on a Rs 100 crore swap with two years left. Given the four discount factors, find today's par swap rate and the swap's value to the company.Case 012 →A book has vega of Rs 62 lakh against a Rs 50 lakh limit and gamma of minus 3.5 against minus 3.0. With a one-month and a three-month option to trade, find a combination that brings both inside and explain the trade-off.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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