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040

Case 040Greeks and managing an options bookHard

Pranhita Capital is short a one-month at-the-money call on a Rs 1,000 stock at 25% volatility. Compare the hedging error from rehedging daily and weekly, and the cost at 0.05% of the traded value per rehedge. Which frequency would you choose?

1The situation

Pranhita Capital has sold a one-month at-the-money call on 50,000 shares of Kodachadri Foods, which trades at Rs 1,000. The option was priced at 25% volatility, and the desk believes that is a fair estimate of how much the stock will move. The plan is to delta hedge with the stock until expiry and earn the premium as the hedge replicates the option.

Hedging is not continuous. The desk can rebalance daily, 21 times over the month, or weekly, 4 times. Each rebalance costs about 0.05% of the value of stock traded, in spread and brokerage. For simplicity, ignore interest rates over the month.

2Your task

Size the hedging error under each frequency, size the transaction cost, and decide which frequency to use and why the answer depends on the cost.

Quick check

Moving from weekly to daily rehedging cuts the standard deviation of the hedging error by a factor of about:

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Hedge daily: the error standard deviation falls from about Rs 12.7 a share weekly to Rs 5.6 daily, while the extra cost is about Rs 0.41 a share. On 50,000 shares that is Rs 6.4 lakh against Rs 2.8 lakh of uncertainty, for Rs 0.21 lakh of extra cost. Error falls and cost rises with the square root of the number of rehedges, so the balance sits where they are equal, which here is well above daily; at ten times the cost it moves down to roughly every day and a half.

Step 1Why does hedging less often create an error at all?

Think of steering a car by looking at the road once a second against once every five seconds. Either way you stay roughly on the road, but the second driver wanders further between corrections. A delta hedge set at the start of a day is right only at that instant; as the stock moves, the option's delta changes by its gammaThe rate at which an option delta changes as the stock moves. Here about 0.0055 per rupee per share, so a Rs 16 move shifts delta by about 0.09. and the hedge drifts out of line until the next rebalance, so each interval leaves a small gain or loss that depends on how far the stock moved. These errors average to about zero when the option is fairly priced, but they do not cancel exactly, and their spread is the hedging error. The option here is worth about Rs 28.8 a share, with a delta of 0.51 and a vega of Rs 1.15 per volatility point.

Step 2How big is the error at each frequency?

There is a clean approximation, due to Derman and Kamal: the standard deviation of the hedging error is about the square root of pi over 4, times volatility, times the option's vega, divided by the square root of the number of rehedges. With vega of Rs 115.1 per unit of volatility and volatility of 25%, the numerator is Rs 25.5; divided by the square root of 21 it is Rs 5.56 a share for daily hedging, and divided by the square root of 4 it is Rs 12.75 for weekly. On 50,000 shares, one standard deviation is Rs 2.78 lakh daily against Rs 6.37 lakh weekly, on a premium of Rs 14.4 lakh. Weekly hedging means a one-in-six month can wipe out almost half the premium for reasons that have nothing to do with whether 25% was the right volatility.

The relationship
σerror≈π4  σ Vn\sigma_{\text{error}} \approx \sqrt{\frac{\pi}{4}}\;\frac{\sigma\,\mathcal{V}}{\sqrt{n}}
\sigmavolatility, 25%
\mathcal{V}option vega per 1.00 of volatility, about Rs 115.1 a share
nnumber of rehedges over the option's life
What it says in wordsHedging error shrinks only with the square root of how often you rehedge, so four times the rehedging halves the error.
Hedged P&L per share at expiry: daily against weekly rehedging-40-30-20-100+10+20+30+40Hedged P&L per share at expiry, Rsdaily, 21 rehedges: sd Rs 5.56weekly, 4 rehedges: sd Rs 12.75Width ratio: sqrt(21/4) = 2.29Both centred on zero: rehedging lessoften adds noise, not a bias.
Both hedged P&L distributions are centred on zero, but the weekly one has a standard deviation of Rs 12.75 a share against Rs 5.56 for daily, about 2.3 times wider, so hedging less often adds risk without changing the expected result.
Step 3What does each frequency cost?

Each rebalance trades the change in delta. Over one day the stock moves on average about Rs 12.6, and gamma of 0.0055 turns that into about 0.069 shares traded per share of option, worth about Rs 69; at 0.05% that is about Rs 0.035. Over the month daily rehedging costs about Rs 0.73 a share and weekly about Rs 0.32, because a weekly move is bigger but there are fewer of them, so cost grows with the square root of the number of rehedges, not in proportion. Both frequencies also pay about Rs 0.26 to put the first hedge on, which does not affect the choice. On 50,000 shares the gap between daily and weekly is about Rs 0.21 lakh, less than a tenth of the reduction in one standard deviation of error.

Step 4So which frequency, and when would the answer change?

Put a price on risk: if one rupee of standard deviation is treated as costing one rupee, the total is cost times the square root of n plus error divided by the square root of n, and that is smallest where the two are equal. At 0.05% the balance is near 160 rehedges in the month, several a day, so daily hedging is the conservative choice and weekly is plainly too few; at 0.5%, a thin stock with wide spreads, the balance falls to about 16, roughly every day and a half. The answer is therefore daily for Kodachadri, and the reason is the cost, not a rule of thumb. In practice desks use a band rather than a clock: rebalance when the hedge has drifted more than a set number of shares, which spends transaction cost only when the stock has actually moved, and widen the band as expiry approaches and gamma rises.

Error falls and cost rises with rehedges; the crossing is the balance5101520024102150100250Rehedges in the month (log scale); Rs per share on the lefthedging error, sdcost at 0.05%cost at 0.5%balance near 160balance near 16weeklydaily
The hedging error falls and the rebalancing cost rises with the square root of the number of rehedges, so the two lines cross near 160 rehedges a month at a 0.05% cost and near 16 at 0.5%, which places daily hedging on the safe side for a liquid stock and weekly well short of the balance.

State the limits. The error formula assumes the volatility the stock actually delivers equals the 25% used to price and hedge, and treats gamma as roughly constant; near expiry an at-the-money option's gamma rises sharply, so the last few days carry more of the error than the formula shows, and a simulation of this option lands within about a tenth of these figures. The trade-off also depends on how much the desk is willing to pay to reduce variance, which is a choice about risk appetite rather than arithmetic.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is saying that weekly hedging loses money on average. It does not: the expected result is about the same, and what changes is the spread. A candidate who says hedging less often costs gamma has confused a wider distribution with a lower mean.

The second is assuming the error falls in proportion to the number of rehedges. It falls with the square root, so going from weekly to daily cuts it by about 2.3, not 5, and the same square root on the cost side is why the best frequency depends on the transaction cost rather than on a habit.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Realised volatility turns out to be 30%, not 25%. Does hedging more often help the short option holder, and why not?
  • How would a hedging band work in practice, and how would you set its width?
  • Why does the hedging error near expiry depend so much on whether the stock is close to the strike?
  • The desk is long the option instead of short. Does anything in the frequency decision change?
← Case 039Purna Finance bought a 3x6 FRA at 7.00% on Rs 50 crore. At fixing the three-month rate is 7.60%. How much is settled, when, and who pays whom?Case 041 →Kalyangad Capital runs a delta-neutral short Satpura 50 options book with gamma of minus 2 units per point and vega of minus Rs 5 lakh per vol point, index at 22,000. Stress it for a 10% gap down with volatility up 10 points. Why does the Greek estimate understate the loss?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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