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053

Case 053Option pricing and arbitrage checksCore

A five-year convertible with Rs 1,000 face converts into 8 shares. The stock is Rs 110, the straight bond is worth Rs 880 and a five-year call struck at Rs 125 is worth Rs 25. Value the convertible and its conversion premium.

1The situation

Kalsubai Engineering issues a five-year convertible bondA bond the holder can exchange for a fixed number of the issuer's shares. It pays a coupon until converted or redeemed. with a face value of Rs 1,000. Each bond converts, at the holder's choice, into 8 shares at any time up to maturity. Kalsubai's stock trades at Rs 110.

A plain Kalsubai bond with the same coupon and maturity, with no conversion right, would trade at Rs 880. A five-year call option on one Kalsubai share struck at Rs 125 is worth Rs 25.

2Your task

What is the convertible worth, what is its conversion premium, and what does the holder pay that premium for?

Quick check

Before working it: what is the convertible worth, roughly?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The convertible is worth about Rs 1,080, a conversion premium of 22.7%. Each bond converts into 8 shares, so the conversion price is Rs 125 and the conversion right is 8 five-year calls struck there, worth Rs 200. Add the Rs 880 straight bond: Rs 1,080. Converting today would give 8 shares worth Rs 880, so the holder pays Rs 200 over conversion value, and that premium buys the bond floor if the stock falls.

Step 1Why is a convertible a bond plus an option, and which option?

Think of a flat bought with a clause that lets you swap it for a plot of land at a fixed ratio any time in five years. You own the flat whatever happens, and you own the right to switch if land gets dearer. A convertible is the same: a straight bond the holder keeps, plus the right to exchange it for a fixed number of shares. The conversion ratio is 8, so the share price at which switching breaks even is Rs 1,000 divided by 8, Rs 125. The right to swap a Rs 1,000 claim for 8 shares is economically 8 call options struck at Rs 125, and the question hands you their price: Rs 25 each.

The relationship
V=B+n×C(K)=880+8×25=1,080K=1,0008=125V = B + n \times C(K) = 880 + 8 \times 25 = 1{,}080 \qquad K = \frac{1{,}000}{8} = 125
Bvalue of the identical bond without the conversion right, Rs 880
nconversion ratio, 8 shares per bond
C(K)value of a five-year call on one share struck at the conversion price
What it says in wordsThe convertible's value is the straight bond plus the conversion ratio times the value of one call struck at the conversion price.
A convertible is a bond plus an option: value it as the two parts880Straight bondbond floor+2008 calls at 1258 x 251,080Convertible880Conversion value8 x 110+20022.7%premium
The Rs 880 straight bond plus 8 calls worth Rs 25 each gives a convertible worth Rs 1,080, Rs 200 above the Rs 880 that 8 shares are worth today, a conversion premium of 22.7%.
Step 2What is the conversion premium, and what does it buy?

Conversion value is what the bond turns into if exchanged today: 8 shares at Rs 110, Rs 880. The convertible trades Rs 200 above that, a conversion premium of 22.7%, and the premium is the price of not having to convert. If Kalsubai's shares fall to Rs 60, the 8 shares are worth Rs 480 but the holder still owns a bond that pays Rs 1,000 at maturity, worth Rs 880 today if the credit holds. The premium is the gap between owning shares and owning a floor under them, which is exactly what 8 calls plus a bond provide and 8 shares alone do not.

Two coincidences in this question are worth naming so they do not confuse you. The bond floor and the conversion value are both Rs 880, so the premium over the bond and the premium over conversion are both 22.7%; in general they differ. And the conversion price of Rs 125 is 13.6% above the Rs 110 share price, which is the premium an issuer quotes at launch. The 22.7% market premium and the 13.6% issue premium are different numbers answering different questions, and interviewers like candidates who keep them apart.

At maturity the holder takes the larger of the face value and 8 shares8001,0001,2001,40080110125150175Share price at maturity, Rsconversion price 125bond floor: face Rs 1,0008 shares8 x share price todaytoday: 880
At maturity the holder takes the larger of the Rs 1,000 face and 8 shares, so the payoff is flat below Rs 125 a share and rises with the stock above it; today, at Rs 110, the 8 shares are worth Rs 880 and the convertible Rs 1,080.
Step 3Where does the simple sum go wrong?

The decomposition treats the option and the bond as independent, and they are not. If the company's credit weakens, the bond floor drops, and usually the share price falls with it, so the call loses value too; the floor is softest exactly when it is needed. The call price of Rs 25 was given to you, but a real desk would mark it with the stock's volatility and the dilution from the new shares. Issuers often keep a right to redeem early, which caps the option. Say it plainly: the sum of the parts is the right first answer and the wrong last one, because the parts move together through the credit.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is striking the call at the share price, Rs 110, instead of the conversion price, Rs 125. The option in a convertible is the right to pay Rs 1,000 for 8 shares, which is Rs 125 a share; the question gives you a Rs 125 call for that reason.

The second is quoting the premium over the straight bond when asked for the conversion premium. Here they coincide, but say which one you are computing.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The stock rallies to Rs 160. What happens to the convertible's premium over conversion value, and why?
  • Kalsubai can call the bond at Rs 1,050 after year three. How does that change the valuation?
  • How would a hedge fund trade this bond against the stock, and what is it trying to isolate?
← Case 052You are short Rs 5 lakh of one-month vega and can only hedge with three-month options. Size the hedge, then show what happens when one-month vol rises 4 points and three-month vol rises 2.Case 054 →A fund receives Rs 200 crore at 3 pm that it cannot invest in stocks before the close. How does it equitise with index futures at 22,000, lot 50, and what does it save if the index rises 1.5% overnight?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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