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067

Case 067Greeks and managing an options bookHard

An index options book has delta of plus 800 index units, gamma of minus 1.3 units per point and vega of minus Rs 3 lakh per vol point, with the index at 22,000. Build the P&L grid for index moves of minus 2%, 0 and plus 2% and volatility moves of minus 2, 0 and plus 2 points.

1The situation

Nagavali Bank's equity derivatives desk runs a book of Satpura 50 options for corporate and institutional clients. At the close, with the index at 22,000, the risk system reports a net delta of plus 800 index units, a gamma of minus 1.3 index units per index point, and a vega of minus Rs 3 lakh per volatility point.

The market risk manager wants a quick scenario grid for the morning meeting: index moves of minus 2%, zero and plus 2%, each with implied volatility down 2 points, unchanged and up 2 points, so nine cells in all.

2Your task

Estimate the profit or loss in each of the nine cells from the three Greeks, find the worst cell, and say whether that cell is a remote combination or a likely one.

Quick check

Before working it: which cell is the worst for this book?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The worst cell is the index down 2% with volatility up 2 points, a loss of about Rs 10.78 lakh; the best is up 2% with volatility down 2, a gain of about Rs 8.26 lakh. A 2% move is 440 points: delta is worth Rs 3.52 lakh, gamma costs Rs 1.26 lakh either way, and each 2 points of volatility is Rs 6 lakh. The worst cell is also the likely one, because index sell-offs usually lift implied volatility.

Step 1How do three Greeks turn into one number per cell?

A household budget hit by a price rise, a pay cut and a rent increase adds the three effects to find the month's shortfall. A book's profit for small moves is the same kind of sum: delta times the index move, plus half of gamma times the move squared, plus vega times the change in volatility. A 2% move on 22,000 is 440 points. Delta of 800 units makes Rs 3.52 lakh on a rise and loses it on a fall. Gamma of minus 1.3 costs half of 1.3 times 440 squared, Rs 1.26 lakh, on a move in either direction. Vega of minus Rs 3 lakh makes Rs 6 lakh if volatility falls 2 points and loses Rs 6 lakh if it rises 2.

The relationship
P&L≈Δ δS+12 Γ (δS)2+ν δσ=800(−440)+12(−1.3)(440)2−3 lakh×2\text{P\&L} \approx \Delta\,\delta S + \tfrac{1}{2}\,\Gamma\,(\delta S)^2 + \nu\,\delta\sigma = 800(-440) + \tfrac{1}{2}(-1.3)(440)^2 - 3\text{ lakh}\times 2
Delta, Gammaplus 800 index units, and minus 1.3 units per index point
nuvega, minus Rs 3 lakh per volatility point
delta S, delta sigmathe index move in points and the volatility change in points
What it says in wordsFor the worst cell, a 440-point fall with volatility up 2 points, the three pieces are minus 3.52, minus 1.26 and minus 6 lakh, about minus 10.78 lakh in all.
Nine cells from three Greeks: the worst is a fall with volatility risingImplied volatility-2 pointsunchanged+2 pointsSatpura 50-2%, to 21,560+1.22-4.78-10.78unchanged+6.000.00-6.00+2%, to 22,440+8.26+2.26-3.74One cell= delta+ gamma+ vega-2%, +2 vol:-3.52 -1.26-6.00 = -10.78Delta: 800 units x 440 points = Rs 3.52 lakh. Gamma: 0.5 x -1.3 x 440 squared = Rs -1.26 lakh.Vega: Rs 3 lakh per point, short, so a 2-point rise costs Rs 6 lakh. Rupees lakh, before theta and cross effects.
Across the nine cells the book makes up to Rs 8.26 lakh when the index rises 2% and volatility falls, and loses up to Rs 10.78 lakh when the index falls 2% and volatility rises, the one cell where delta, gamma and vega all lose together.
Step 2Why is the worst cell also the most likely bad day?

The grid treats the nine cells as equals, but markets do not. When an equity index falls sharply, implied volatility usually rises, so the down-2%, volatility-up cell is the ordinary shape of a bad day, not a coincidence of two separate shocks. The up-2%, volatility-down cell, the book's best, is the ordinary shape of a calm rally. A manager who reads the grid as nine equally likely outcomes would underweight the bottom-left corner, which is exactly where this book is hurt most: Rs 10.78 lakh against Rs 4.78 lakh if volatility had held still.

Short gamma bends the curve down; long delta tilts it; short vega drops it0-5-10-15-4%-2%0+2%+4%Satpura 50 move, % (rupees lakh on the vertical axis)-2%, vol +2: -10.78-4.78peak +2.5 at +2.8%vol unchangedvol +2 pointsEvery fall loses:long delta and shortgamma point the sameway on the downside
With volatility unchanged the book's profit peaks at about Rs 2.5 lakh near a 2.8% rise and falls away on both sides, and a 2-point rise in volatility drops the whole curve by Rs 6 lakh, so every fall in the index is a loss and the worst one comes with volatility rising.
Step 3What does the shape of the curve say about the book?

Long delta tilts the curve up to the right; short gamma bends it down at both ends. The two balance at about 615 points, a 2.8% rise, where the book makes its most, about Rs 2.5 lakh. On the downside the two Greeks point the same way, so there is no fall the book profits from, while on the upside it only gains until the bend overtakes the tilt at about a 5.6% rise. This is the profile of a desk that has sold options to clients and is carrying some net long delta, perhaps by design, perhaps by drift.

Step 4What would you do with this grid in the morning meeting?

Separate what can be hedged cheaply from what cannot. Selling 800 units of index futures removes delta at almost no cost; the worst cell then becomes Rs 7.26 lakh, gamma plus vega, and the up-2% cells lose that protection too. The rest of the worst cell is short vega and short gamma, which only buying options can reduce, and that costs premium and time decay. Then say the limits plainly. The grid is a second-order Taylor estimate: it ignores how vega itself changes when the index moves, the cross effect between price and volatility, and a day's theta, which for a short-gamma book is a gain. For 2% moves it is a fair first read; for a 5% gap the full revaluation would be needed, because the gamma figure itself will have changed by then.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates compute the gamma term as minus 1.3 times 440, forgetting both the half and the square, and get a number fifty times too small to matter. Write the formula before the numbers.

The second miss is treating the nine cells as equally likely. In equity indices a fall and a volatility spike arrive together, so the worst corner of this grid is the one the desk should plan for first.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How large would the index fall have to be for the gamma term alone to equal the vega loss in the worst cell?
  • The desk sells 800 units of futures. Redraw the curve and say what has changed on the upside.
  • Why does a short-gamma book earn theta, and roughly how many days of theta would pay for the worst cell?
← Case 066A fund holds Rs 50 crore of a stock at Rs 600. The one-month future trades at Rs 597, while carry at 7% says it should be about Rs 603.50. How does switching from the shares into cash plus futures earn extra return, and what if the discount has not closed by expiry?Case 068 →A desk holds 400 lots, lot 50, of index calls with delta 0.45, gamma 0.0002 per point and vega Rs 12 per vol point per unit, index at 22,000. Express delta in index units and rupees, gamma as the change in rupee delta for a 1% move, and vega in rupees per vol point.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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