Case 067Greeks and managing an options bookHard
An index options book has delta of plus 800 index units, gamma of minus 1.3 units per point and vega of minus Rs 3 lakh per vol point, with the index at 22,000. Build the P&L grid for index moves of minus 2%, 0 and plus 2% and volatility moves of minus 2, 0 and plus 2 points.
1The situation
Nagavali Bank's equity derivatives desk runs a book of Satpura 50 options for corporate and institutional clients. At the close, with the index at 22,000, the risk system reports a net delta of plus 800 index units, a gamma of minus 1.3 index units per index point, and a vega of minus Rs 3 lakh per volatility point.
The market risk manager wants a quick scenario grid for the morning meeting: index moves of minus 2%, zero and plus 2%, each with implied volatility down 2 points, unchanged and up 2 points, so nine cells in all.
2Your task
Estimate the profit or loss in each of the nine cells from the three Greeks, find the worst cell, and say whether that cell is a remote combination or a likely one.
Quick check
Before working it: which cell is the worst for this book?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
The worst cell is the index down 2% with volatility up 2 points, a loss of about Rs 10.78 lakh; the best is up 2% with volatility down 2, a gain of about Rs 8.26 lakh. A 2% move is 440 points: delta is worth Rs 3.52 lakh, gamma costs Rs 1.26 lakh either way, and each 2 points of volatility is Rs 6 lakh. The worst cell is also the likely one, because index sell-offs usually lift implied volatility.
Step 1How do three Greeks turn into one number per cell?
A household budget hit by a price rise, a pay cut and a rent increase adds the three effects to find the month's shortfall. A book's profit for small moves is the same kind of sum: delta times the index move, plus half of gamma times the move squared, plus vega times the change in volatility. A 2% move on 22,000 is 440 points. Delta of 800 units makes Rs 3.52 lakh on a rise and loses it on a fall. Gamma of minus 1.3 costs half of 1.3 times 440 squared, Rs 1.26 lakh, on a move in either direction. Vega of minus Rs 3 lakh makes Rs 6 lakh if volatility falls 2 points and loses Rs 6 lakh if it rises 2.
| Delta, Gamma | plus 800 index units, and minus 1.3 units per index point |
| nu | vega, minus Rs 3 lakh per volatility point |
| delta S, delta sigma | the index move in points and the volatility change in points |
Step 2Why is the worst cell also the most likely bad day?
The grid treats the nine cells as equals, but markets do not. When an equity index falls sharply, implied volatility usually rises, so the down-2%, volatility-up cell is the ordinary shape of a bad day, not a coincidence of two separate shocks. The up-2%, volatility-down cell, the book's best, is the ordinary shape of a calm rally. A manager who reads the grid as nine equally likely outcomes would underweight the bottom-left corner, which is exactly where this book is hurt most: Rs 10.78 lakh against Rs 4.78 lakh if volatility had held still.
Step 3What does the shape of the curve say about the book?
Long delta tilts the curve up to the right; short gamma bends it down at both ends. The two balance at about 615 points, a 2.8% rise, where the book makes its most, about Rs 2.5 lakh. On the downside the two Greeks point the same way, so there is no fall the book profits from, while on the upside it only gains until the bend overtakes the tilt at about a 5.6% rise. This is the profile of a desk that has sold options to clients and is carrying some net long delta, perhaps by design, perhaps by drift.
Step 4What would you do with this grid in the morning meeting?
Separate what can be hedged cheaply from what cannot. Selling 800 units of index futures removes delta at almost no cost; the worst cell then becomes Rs 7.26 lakh, gamma plus vega, and the up-2% cells lose that protection too. The rest of the worst cell is short vega and short gamma, which only buying options can reduce, and that costs premium and time decay. Then say the limits plainly. The grid is a second-order Taylor estimate: it ignores how vega itself changes when the index moves, the cross effect between price and volatility, and a day's theta, which for a short-gamma book is a gain. For 2% moves it is a fair first read; for a 5% gap the full revaluation would be needed, because the gamma figure itself will have changed by then.
Where candidates lose it
Candidates compute the gamma term as minus 1.3 times 440, forgetting both the half and the square, and get a number fifty times too small to matter. Write the formula before the numbers.
The second miss is treating the nine cells as equally likely. In equity indices a fall and a volatility spike arrive together, so the worst corner of this grid is the one the desk should plan for first.
What the interviewer asks next
- How large would the index fall have to be for the gamma term alone to equal the vega loss in the worst cell?
- The desk sells 800 units of futures. Redraw the curve and say what has changed on the upside.
- Why does a short-gamma book earn theta, and roughly how many days of theta would pay for the worst cell?
Company names and figures are illustrative.
