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039

Case 039Earnings and resultsWarm up

Twenty-minute investing case with rapid-fire questions: Sarvaka Consumer's revenue grew 9% against 12% expected, the EBITDA margin beat, EPS beat by 3% on other income, and the stock fell 4%. Answer six quick questions crisply.

Fidelity InvestmentsToronto · 2024

1The situation

Sarvaka Consumer sells packaged foods and personal care products. In the same quarter last year it had revenue of Rs 2,000 crore. Analysts expected 12% growth, Rs 2,240 crore, at a 17.5% EBITDA margin, and EPS of Rs 10.71.

Reported: revenue up 9% to Rs 2,180 crore, EBITDA margin 18.0%, and EPS of Rs 11.02, a 3% beat. Advertising fell from 9.0% to 8.5% of sales. Other income was Rs 30 crore against Rs 20 crore expected, including gains on the bonds in its treasury portfolio. The stock fell 4% on the day.

2Your task

Six rapid-fire questions follow. Answer each in one or two sentences.

Quick check

First question, ten seconds: was this a beat or a miss?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

It was a miss dressed as a beat: revenue came in 2.7% short, EBITDA was only in line, and the entire 3% EPS beat came from Rs 10 crore of treasury gains. The margin beat came from cutting advertising by half a point, which may cost growth later. The stock fell because investors price consumer companies on revenue growth and its quality. Expect estimates for the year to come down by about 2% on revenue.

Step 1How do you read a quarter in thirty seconds?

Picture a shop that says profit was up this month, but you learn footfall fell, it stopped paying for its signboard and it made money selling some old furniture. You would not call it a good month. Read a result top-down, revenue first, then margin, then everything below EBITDA, and ask at each line whether the gap will repeat. A beat that appears only below EBITDA, in other income or tax, tells you nothing about the business.

Line by line: the only real beat is other incomeLineExpectedActualGapReadRevenue, Rs crore2,2402,180-2.7%MISSEBITDA margin17.5%18.0%+0.5 ptad cutEBITDA, Rs crore392392+0.1%IN LINEOther income, Rs crore2030+10one-offEPS, Rs10.7111.02+2.9%LOW QUALITYEPS without the treasury gain10.7110.72+0.1%IN LINEThe EPS beat is Rs 10 crore of treasury gains; take it out and the quarter is a revenue miss with flat profit.
Sarvaka missed revenue by 2.7%, delivered EBITDA in line only because advertising was cut, and beat EPS by 2.9% purely on Rs 10 crore of treasury gains; without them EPS would have been in line at Rs 10.72.
Step 2What are the six questions, and the crisp answers?
Rapid-fire questionAnswer in one or two sentences
1. Beat or miss?Miss. Revenue, the line that shows demand, was 2.7% short; the EPS beat is not from the business.
2. Where did the margin beat come from?Advertising fell half a point of sales, which explains the whole 0.5 point beat. It is a choice, not efficiency, and may cost volume later.
3. Is the EPS beat good quality?No. Other income was Rs 10 crore above plan from bond gains; without it EPS is Rs 10.72, in line.
4. Why did the stock fall 4% on an EPS beat?Investors price consumer staples on revenue growth. Growth slowed to 9% and the company cut the spending that drives it.
5. What do you ask on the call?How much of the 9% was volume and how much price; whether distributors cut stock; and when advertising returns to 9% of sales.
6. What happens to your estimates?Cut full-year revenue growth from 12% to about 10%, roughly 2% lower revenue; keep the margin; ignore the treasury gain.
Six rapid-fire answers on Sarvaka's quarter, each a verdict followed by the one number that supports it, which is the shape interviewers expect under time pressure.
Step 3Why does the margin beat not rescue the quarter?

Because it is arithmetic, not strength. An 18.0% margin on Rs 2,180 crore of revenue gives Rs 392 crore of EBITDA, the same as 17.5% on the Rs 2,240 crore analysts expected, so the margin beat only filled the hole the revenue miss left. And the half point came from A&PAdvertising and promotion spend, usually shown as a percentage of sales; consumer companies often trim it in a weak quarter to protect margins. cuts. A company that protects this quarter's margin by spending less on its brands is borrowing from future growth, which is exactly what investors punish.

In a rapid-fire round the interviewer is grading two things: whether the first word is a verdict, and whether one number follows it. Resist explaining every line. Say miss, say why in one number, and stop; they will ask for more if they want it.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is saying beat because the headline EPS beat. The question exists to see whether you look beneath EPS; saying beat and then qualifying it for a minute scores worse than saying miss in one word.

The second is running out of time on question one. Rapid-fire means a sentence each; a candidate who gives a full analysis of the margin never reaches the call questions or the estimate change.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Next quarter revenue grows 12% but advertising returns to 9%. What happens to the margin?
  • How would your answer change if the other income were recurring interest on a larger cash pile?
  • Sarvaka's price rise was 6% of the 9%. What does that say about volumes?

Asked at Fidelity Investments, Equity Research Intern Interview, Toronto, 2024 (Wall Street Oasis): The rapid fire questions in the investing case can be difficult to answer with the time pressure

← Case 038TMT stock pitch: Orvanta Cloud, an Indian software-as-a-service company with ARR of Rs 800 crore growing 30% and net revenue retention of 115%, trades at 9x EV/ARR against peers at 7x. Pitch it and name the two metrics that justify or break the premium.Case 040 →Use app and social media data to forecast Sanvora Beauty's quarterly sales. Downloads are up 25% and brand mentions up 40%; your estimate is Rs 410 crore against a street estimate of Rs 450 crore. How confident are you?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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