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069

Case 069Sector economicsCore

A Pindora QSR restaurant does average daily sales of Rs 1.2 lakh at an 18% four-wall margin and costs Rs 2.5 crore to fit out. What are the store economics, and how sensitive are they to daily sales?

1The situation

Pindora QSR runs quick service restaurants. A typical mature store does average daily sales, ADS, of Rs 1.2 lakh and earns a four-wall EBITDA margin of 18%, meaning store-level profit before head office costs, depreciation and tax. A new store costs Rs 2.5 crore to fit out.

Food and packaging, delivery commissions and other costs that move with sales are 42% of sales. Rent, staff and utilities are fixed for a store whatever it sells.

2Your task

Work out annual sales, store EBITDA, the pre-tax return on fit-out and the payback, then show how those change as daily sales move.

Quick check

If daily sales fall about 17%, from Rs 1.2 lakh to Rs 1.0 lakh, what happens to store EBITDA?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

A store sells Rs 4.38 crore a year and earns Rs 78.8 lakh of four-wall EBITDA, a 31.5% pre-tax return on its Rs 2.5 crore fit-out and a payback of about 3.2 years. Because rent and staff are fixed, each rupee of lost sales costs 58 paise of profit. Breakeven is about Rs 82,800 a day, so a 17% drop in daily sales cuts the return to about 15%.

Step 1What does one store earn on its fit-out?

Rs 1.2 lakh a day for 365 days is Rs 438 lakh, Rs 4.38 crore a year. At an 18% four-wall margin the store earns Rs 78.8 lakh. Against Rs 250 lakh of fit-out that is a 31.5% pre-tax return and a 3.2-year payback, which is what a QSR chain's rollout is built on. Before head office costs and tax the figure flatters the company, so say which level you are quoting.

Step 2Why do daily sales matter so much more than the margin suggests?

A tuition centre with a fixed rent and fixed teacher salaries makes its money on the last few students in each batch. Split the store's costs into what moves with sales and what does not: 42% of sales is variable, and the rest of the costs, Rs 175.2 lakh a year of rent, staff and utilities, is fixed. So each extra rupee of sales keeps 58 paise, and each lost rupee costs 58 paise. That is operating leverageProfit moving by a larger percentage than sales because a large part of costs stays fixed. at store level, and it is why same-store sales growth is the number QSR analysts watch.

Store return on fit-out cost against average daily sales-25%0%25%50%Breakeven: Rs 82,800 a day15%23%32%40%48%Base case, Rs 1.2 lakhRs 0.8 lakhRs 1.0 lakhRs 1.2 lakhRs 1.4 lakh
A Pindora store's pre-tax return on its Rs 2.5 crore fit-out swings from 15% at Rs 1.0 lakh of daily sales to 48% at Rs 1.4 lakh, and falls to zero at about Rs 82,800 a day, because rent and staff costs do not move with sales.
Average daily salesAnnual sales, Rs lakhFour-wall EBITDA, Rs lakhMarginReturn on fit-outPayback, years
Rs 1.0 lakh36536.510.0%14.6%6.8
Rs 1.1 lakh40257.714.4%23.1%4.3
Rs 1.2 lakh43878.818.0%31.5%3.2
Rs 1.3 lakh474100.021.1%40.0%2.5
Rs 1.4 lakh511121.223.7%48.5%2.1
A 17% swing in daily sales either side of Rs 1.2 lakh moves Pindora's store return from 14.6% to 48.5% and the payback from 6.8 years to 2.1 years.
Step 3What would you check before trusting the base case?

Three things. Whether Rs 1.2 lakh is a mature-store average or the new-store figure: new stores often open below it and take a year or two to ramp. Whether new stores are going to smaller towns or weaker sites where ADS is lower; the chart shows how quickly that costs return. And whether ADS is rising because of price increases or because of more orders, since only order growth protects the store if prices are cut. A rollout story that needs every new store to match the mature average is fragile at a breakeven of Rs 82,800.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is holding the 18% margin constant while flexing sales. That treats every cost as variable and makes store returns look stable when they are not.

The second is quoting the four-wall return as the company's return. Head office, brand spend and tax sit above it, and the company-level figure is lower.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Rent rises 15% at lease renewal. What daily sales keep the return at 30%?
  • How would you estimate the ramp-up of a new store's daily sales?
  • Delivery commissions rise from 20% to 25% of delivery sales, which are half of all sales. What happens to breakeven?
← Case 068The policy rate is cut 50 bp. At Dhanvela Small Finance Bank 70% of loans reprice at once while term deposits reprice over a year. What happens to net interest margin over the next four quarters?Case 070 →Tanmora Textiles' promoter owns 60% and has pledged 70% of that stake. The lender makes a margin call if the share falls 30%. What is the risk to minority shareholders?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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