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071

Case 071Industry structure and moatsWarm up

Sundora Tea sells at a 20% price premium to loose tea and holds 18% of the market. What would you check to know whether the brand is a real advantage?

1The situation

Sundora Tea sells packaged tea at Rs 480 a kg, against about Rs 400 a kg for loose tea of a similar grade, a 20% premium. It sold about 90,000 tonnes last year, 18% of the market, for revenue of Rs 4,320 crore. Its share has climbed from 15% five years ago.

The five-year record in its annual reports: the premium has stayed between 19% and 21%; advertising has stayed near 6% of revenue; and when leaf costs jumped in FY23, Sundora raised prices 10%, in line with loose tea, and its share still rose. Packaging and distribution cost about Rs 15 a kg more than loose tea.

2Your task

Say what evidence separates a real brand advantage from a brand that is simply spending or discounting, and test Sundora against it.

Quick check

Sundora's share rose from 15% to 18%. Which extra fact best shows the brand is a real advantage?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Check that the premium and the share held together over several years, that the premium survives what it costs to keep, and that a price rise did not cost share. Sundora passes all three: premium steady near 20% while share rose from 15% to 18%, advertising flat at 6%, and the FY23 price rise absorbed without losing buyers. It keeps about Rs 36 of its Rs 80 premium per kg, Rs 326 crore a year.

Step 1What does a brand advantage look like in the numbers?

Two tea stalls stand side by side. One charges Rs 15 a cup, the other Rs 12, and the queue at the dearer stall keeps getting longer. That is an advantage. If the dearer stall's queue grew only after it cut to Rs 12, or it kept Rs 15 while its queue shrank, there is no advantage, just a pricing choice. A brand is an advantage only when it holds price and share together; either one alone can be bought.

So the first check is time, not a single year. Lay the premium and the share side by side for five years. A brand that buys share shows a falling premium; a brand that milks its name shows a rising premium and a falling share. Sundora's premium has stayed between 19% and 21% while its share rose three points.

Premium and share together: only one of these is a brand advantageSundora Tea212223242519%20%15%18%Holds price and share: realA brand buying share212223242520%12%15%18%Share bought with priceA brand milking price212223242520%26%15%12%Price taken out of shareprice premium to loose teamarket shareBoth on the same 0 to 30% scale
Sundora's premium holds near 20% while its share rises from 15% to 18%; a brand buying share shows the same share gain with the premium falling to 12%, and a brand milking price shows the premium rising to 26% while share falls to 12%.
Step 2Does the premium pay for itself?

A premium that is spent entirely on advertising and packaging is a cost, not an advantage. Per kg, Sundora charges Rs 80 more than loose tea. Packaging and distribution take Rs 15, and advertising at 6% of Rs 480 takes Rs 28.8. Sundora keeps Rs 36.2 a kg, about 45% of its premium, or Rs 326 crore a year on 9 crore kg. That is the brand's real profit. Watch the advertising line too: if share gains had come with advertising rising from 6% to 9% of revenue, the brand would be renting share rather than owning it.

The premium has to pay for itself: Rs a kg of Sundora tea80PremiumRs 480 less Rs 400-15Packagingand distribution-28.8Advertising6% of price36.2Kept45% of premiumRs 36.2 x 9 crore kgRs 326 crorea year the brand earnsafter paying to keep it
Of Sundora's Rs 80 a kg premium over loose tea, packaging takes Rs 15 and advertising Rs 28.8, so the brand keeps Rs 36.2 a kg, about Rs 326 crore a year, which is the profit the advantage actually earns.
Step 3What is the hardest test, and what are its limits?

The hardest test is a price rise. In FY23 leaf costs jumped and Sundora raised prices 10%, matching loose tea, and share still went from 15.8% to 16.5%. Buyers who stay through a price rise are the clearest evidence of pricing power, because a weak brand loses share the moment it asks for more. Add a check on distribution, since a tea brand's share partly reflects how many shops stock it: if the share gain came from opening new towns rather than winning buyers in old ones, the brand is less strong than it looks.

CheckWhat a real brand showsSundora
Premium and share over five yearsBoth held or rising togetherPremium 19% to 21%, share 15% to 18%
Cost of keeping the premiumPremium well above packaging and advertisingKeeps Rs 36.2 of Rs 80 a kg
Advertising intensityFlat while share rises5.8% to 6.0% of revenue
Response to a price riseShare holds or risesUp 10% in FY23, share still rose
Where share came fromExisting towns, not just new shopsStill to check
Sundora passes the four checks that need only its annual reports; the fifth, whether share came from winning buyers or simply from wider distribution, needs channel checks before the brand advantage is confirmed.

The limit: a brand advantage in a staple is real but narrow. A 20% premium can hold for years and still be capped by how far shoppers will stretch for a daily product. State the conclusion with that limit attached.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates answer with market share alone, or with the premium alone. Each can be bought: a price cut buys share and a shrinking customer base can keep a premium for a while. Only the pair together, over several years, shows an advantage.

The second loss is treating advertising as proof of the brand. Spending is an input, not an outcome; a brand whose share needs ever-rising advertising is renting its customers.

What the interviewer asks next

  • A private-label tea from a large retailer launches at Rs 420 a kg. What would you watch in the next two quarters?
  • How would you estimate how much of Sundora's share gain came from wider distribution?
  • Sundora wants to lift its premium to 25%. What evidence would make you comfortable it can?
← Case 070Tanmora Textiles' promoter owns 60% and has pledged 70% of that stake. The lender makes a margin call if the share falls 30%. What is the risk to minority shareholders?Case 072 →A fund wants a Rs 150 crore position in Sahvira Microfinance, which trades Rs 8 crore a day. Buying at 20% of daily volume, how many days does it take to build, and what does that mean for sizing?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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