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088

Case 088Stock pitchCore

Pitch a hotel company in three minutes, using revenue per available room as the spine: room rate up 5%, occupancy from 70% to 74%, and 60% of costs fixed.

WMWellington ManagementHong Kong · 2022

1The situation

Tessarine Hotels owns 5,000 rooms across business and leisure hotels in Indian metros. This year its average room rate is Rs 8,500 and occupancy 70%, which gives room revenue of Rs 1,086 crore; food, banquets and other income add Rs 414 crore, for total revenue of Rs 1,500 crore. Costs are Rs 1,050 crore: 60%, Rs 630 crore, is fixed (staff, property upkeep, leases), and Rs 420 crore moves with the number of rooms sold.

For next year you expect room rates up 5% and occupancy up to 74%, as little new hotel supply opens in its cities. The stock trades at 18x this year's EBITDA.

2Your task

Build the next-year EBITDA from the RevPAR spine and pitch the stock in three minutes: thesis, numbers, valuation, risk.

Quick check

Revenue grows about 10%. Roughly how much does EBITDA grow?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

RevPAR rises 11%, and because 60% of costs are fixed, EBITDA rises about 26%, from Rs 450 crore to Rs 569 crore. A 5% rate rise adds Rs 54 crore with no extra cost, and four points of occupancy add Rs 65 crore after variable costs. At 18x this year the stock is 14.2x next year. The same leverage cuts the other way: occupancy back at 66% takes EBITDA down 14%.

Step 1Why is RevPAR the right spine for a hotel pitch?

Because it combines the two things a hotel sells, price and fullness, into one number. RevPARRevenue per available room: average room rate times occupancy, or room revenue divided by every room the hotel has, sold or not. is rate times occupancy: Rs 8,500 at 70% is Rs 5,950 per room per night. Rate and occupancy multiply, so 5% on rate and 5.7% on occupancy compound to an 11.0% rise in RevPAR. A hotel room is a train seat: once the train leaves, an empty seat earns nothing, so filling one more seat or charging a little more for each goes almost straight to the operator.

RevPAR is the spine: rate times occupancy, then fixed costs do the restAverage room rateRs 8,500 to Rs 8,925+5.0%Occupancy70% to 74%+4 points, +5.7%xRevPARRs 5,950 to Rs 6,604+11.0%Room revenueRs 1,086 to 1,205 cr5,000 rooms x 365EBITDARs 450 to 569 cr+26.5%fixed costs flatat Rs 630 crRevenue grows 9.5%; EBITDA grows 26.5%, because 60% of costs do not move with it
Tessarine's room rate rising 5% and occupancy rising from 70% to 74% lift RevPAR 11.0%, room revenue from Rs 1,086 crore to Rs 1,205 crore, and EBITDA from Rs 450 crore to Rs 569 crore because fixed costs stay at Rs 630 crore.
Step 2Why do rate and occupancy not add the same profit?

A higher rate costs nothing to deliver; a fuller hotel needs more housekeeping, laundry and breakfasts. In hotels, rate gains fall entirely to profit and occupancy gains fall almost straight to it: about 73% of the extra occupancy revenue survives variable costs. The rate rise adds Rs 54 crore of room revenue and the same Rs 54 crore of EBITDA. Occupancy adds Rs 89 crore of revenue, rooms plus food, and Rs 24 crore of variable cost, so Rs 65 crore reaches EBITDA.

Where the extra EBITDA comes from, Rs crore450This year+54Rate +5%no extra cost+65Occupancy +4 ptsafter variable cost569Next year
Tessarine's EBITDA rises from Rs 450 crore to Rs 569 crore: the 5% rate increase adds Rs 54 crore at no extra cost and the four points of occupancy add Rs 65 crore after variable costs.
Step 3How do you say it in three minutes?

Thesis in one line: little new supply is opening in Tessarine's cities, so rate and occupancy both rise, and fixed costs turn an 11% RevPAR gain into a 26% EBITDA gain. Numbers: RevPAR Rs 5,950 to Rs 6,604; EBITDA Rs 450 crore to Rs 569 crore. Valuation: 18x this year's EBITDA is 14.2x next year's, so the stock is cheaper than it looks if the RevPAR call is right. Risk: the same leverage works downward. If occupancy slipped to 66% at flat rates, EBITDA would fall to Rs 388 crore, down 14%. What would change your mind: new room supply announced in its top three cities, or corporate travel budgets cut.

Rs croreThis yearNext yearDownside: 66% occupancy
Room revenue1,0861,2051,024
Food and other414438390
Variable costs(420)(444)(396)
Fixed costs(630)(630)(630)
EBITDA450569388
Change+26.5%-13.7%
With Rs 630 crore of fixed costs, Tessarine's EBITDA rises 26.5% if RevPAR rises 11%, and falls 13.7% if occupancy slips to 66% at flat rates.

Say the limit before the interviewer does. Fixed costs rarely stay perfectly flat: wage inflation of 6% on the fixed base would take about Rs 38 crore off next year's gain. The pitch survives that, which is exactly why you should say it.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates add the growth rates, 5% plus 4 points, and call RevPAR up 9%, or they grow EBITDA with revenue and miss the operating leverage that is the whole pitch. The interviewer gave you the fixed-cost share so you would use it.

The other loss is a pitch with no downside. Operating leverage cuts both ways; name the occupancy level that breaks the thesis before you are asked.

What the interviewer asks next

  • What occupancy would Tessarine need at flat rates for EBITDA to stay at this year's level if fixed costs rise 6%?
  • Why do investors often value hotel owners on EV/EBITDA rather than P/E?
  • How would an asset-light hotel manager's numbers differ from Tessarine's?

Asked at Wellington Management, Generalist, Hong Kong, 2022 (Wall Street Oasis): with head of HR department. CV based question and stock pitch question.

← Case 087A retailer that is a 3% position falls 18% in a day on one quarter's same-store sales miss, 2% against 7% expected. Do you add, hold or cut, and what evidence decides it?Case 089 →A pharma company cuts growth guidance from 12% to 7%. Your EPS estimate falls from Rs 48 to Rs 43 and the stock drops 15% from Rs 960 to Rs 816. How much of the cut is already priced in?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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