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029

Case 029ValuationCore

A business school run through a trust is for sale. Why should a buyer buy it, and at what price?

WMWellington ManagementBoston · 2024

1The situation

Vidyavan Institute of Management has 2,000 students paying Rs 5 lakh a year. The college runs at a 30% EBITDA margin and spends Rs 4 crore a year on maintenance capex. Like many colleges, it is owned by a charitable trust, and the trust may not distribute its surplus to anyone.

An operating company, the one being sold, holds a long management agreement with the trust. It earns a fee of 15% of the college's revenue and bears Rs 3 crore a year of its own costs. Comparable fee businesses change hands at about 10x EBITDA.

2Your task

Make the case for buying, and say what you would pay.

Quick check

The college earns Rs 30 crore of EBITDA and peers trade at 10x. What is the operating company worth?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Buy it for the fee stream, and pay no more than about Rs 120 crore. The college makes Rs 30 crore of EBITDA, but the trust cannot pay its surplus out. What the buyer owns is a fee of 15% of revenue, Rs 15 crore, less Rs 3 crore of costs: Rs 12 crore. At 10x that is Rs 120 crore, not the Rs 300 crore the headline suggests, and less if the agreement is short.

Step 1What is the buyer actually buying?

Not the college. A family that manages a temple's accounts for a fee owns the fee, not the donations. Vidyavan's trust collects the fees and keeps the surplus; the company for sale owns only a contract that pays it 15% of revenue. Start every valuation of this kind by drawing the structure and following which cash can leave, because the ring-fencedKept inside one legal entity by law or contract, so it cannot be paid to the owners of another. surplus belongs to nobody a buyer can be.

Follow the money: only the fee stream leaves the trust2,000 studentsRs 5 lakh each100The trust: runs the collegeFees100Staff, campus, other costs(70)EBITDA, 30%30Management fee to OpCo(15)Surplus that cannot leave15Locked in the trust15, less 4 maintenance capex= 11 reinvested, never paid outfee 15 = 15% of revenueOpCo: what the buyer ownsFee in, less own costs 312EBITDA a buyer can take outValue on 10xRs 120 crore
Students pay Rs 100 crore to the trust, which keeps Rs 15 crore of surplus it cannot distribute and pays a Rs 15 crore fee to the operating company; after its own Rs 3 crore of costs the operating company keeps Rs 12 crore, the only cash a buyer can own.
Step 2So what is it worth?

Apply the 10x to the right line. Rs 12 crore of fee EBITDA at 10x is Rs 120 crore, against Rs 300 crore if you wrongly value the college's whole EBITDA. The fee stream is also lighter than it looks on capital: the Rs 4 crore of maintenance capex sits in the trust and is paid from the surplus the trust keeps, so the operating company's EBITDA is close to its cash flow before tax. After 25% tax it is about Rs 9 crore a year.

Same multiple, different cash: what each reading pays for, Rs croreTrust EBITDA 30 x 10the naive reading300Fee stream 12 x 10cash the buyer can own120Fee stream 12 x 8if the agreement is short96Rs 180 crore of the naivevalue can never be paid outThe multiple was never the problem. The cash it was applied to was.
At the same 10x multiple, valuing the trust's Rs 30 crore of EBITDA gives Rs 300 crore, while valuing the Rs 12 crore fee stream the buyer can own gives Rs 120 crore, and Rs 96 crore at 8x if the agreement is short.
Step 3Why buy it at all?

Because a well-run college is a durable business. Fees are paid upfront, a 2,000 seat capacity is hard for a rival to replicate quickly, and a fee linked to revenue grows every time fees or seats rise. If fees grow 6% a year, the operating company's EBITDA grows faster, because its Rs 3 crore of costs do not scale with fees. That is the pitch: a recurring, prepaid, growing fee with little capital need.

Step 4What would push the price below Rs 120 crore?

The contract, above all. A fee is worth 10x only if it will be paid for many years. If the management agreement has five years left and the trust can decline to renew, the buyer is buying a five year annuity, not a perpetual business, and 8x or less is the right range: Rs 96 crore at 8x. The second risk is regulatory: authorities in many places look hard at fees that move surplus out of a charitable trust, so the current rules on such arrangements must be confirmed before signing, not assumed. The third is enrolment: a 10% fall in students cuts the fee by Rs 1.5 crore and the operating EBITDA by 12.5%.

Close with the judgement: a sound business to own on the fee, priced on the fee, with the length of the agreement and its regulatory standing checked before any number goes on the table.

Where candidates lose it

The loss almost everyone makes is applying the multiple to the college's EBITDA. The trust structure means that surplus can never be paid to a shareholder, so a Rs 300 crore answer pays for cash that does not exist for the buyer.

The second is forgetting that a contract has an end date. A fee that stops in five years is worth far less than one that runs indefinitely, and the agreement's term is the first document to ask for.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How would you value the fee if the agreement has exactly seven years to run with no renewal right?
  • The trust wants to raise the fee to 20% of revenue. What risks does that create for the buyer?
  • How would you test whether 2,000 students is sustainable for this college?

Asked at Wellington Management, Investment Research, Boston, 2024 (Wall Street Oasis): Why should I buy your College and how much would you sell it for?

← Case 028Vayuvega Wind needs Rs 1,500 crore for new capacity. It is close to its leverage covenant and is listed both in India and overseas at different multiples. Should it raise debt or equity, and in which market?Case 030 →A D2C skin care brand adds 10,000 new customers a month, and each cohort keeps reordering at a declining rate. What is revenue in month 6?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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