Case 054Credit analysis and lendingCore
Dhalai Castings wants a Rs 200 crore, 7-year term loan at 10% for a new plant, with projected DSCR of 1.15x. Would you lend, and on what conditions?
1The situation
Dhalai Castings makes iron castings for tractor and pump makers. It asks your bank for a Rs 200 crore term loan at 10%, repaid in equal instalments over 7 years, to fund a new plant. EBITDA is Rs 90 crore today and management expects Rs 120 crore once the plant runs. Tax is about Rs 10 crore a year.
Existing debt is Rs 250 crore at 9%, repaid at Rs 25 crore a year. The new plant would be valued at Rs 260 crore as security. Management's projection shows a DSCR of 1.15x in year 1, assuming full EBITDA from day one. Your bank's comfort level is 1.25x.
2Your task
Lend or not? If yes, what structure and conditions make the loan bankable?
Quick check
Management shows 1.15x in year 1. What happens if the plant takes two years to reach full output?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
Not as asked, but yes on a restructured loan. The 1.15x assumes full output from day one; on a realistic ramp DSCR is 1.02x in year 1 and 1.15x in year 2, below the 1.25x comfort line. Lending Rs 150 crore over 10 years, with promoters funding Rs 50 crore of the capex, lifts the minimum DSCR to 1.26x and security cover from 1.3x to 1.7x. Add a reserve, a first charge on the plant and a DSCR covenant.
Step 1What does a lender test first?
Whether the cash pays the instalments, year by year. The DSCRDebt service coverage ratio: cash available for debt service divided by the interest and principal due in the same period. compares cash available for debt service with interest plus principal on all the debt, old and new. A family taking a second loan is judged on whether one salary covers both EMIs, not just the new one. Here cash available is EBITDA less tax, and debt service includes the existing Rs 25 crore of principal and 9% interest as well as the new loan.
Step 2Does the 1.15x survive a realistic ramp-up?
No. Year 1 debt service is Rs 22.5 crore of old interest, Rs 25 crore of old principal, Rs 20 crore of new interest and Rs 28.6 crore of new principal: Rs 96.1 crore. Management's Rs 110 crore of cash gives 1.145x, the 1.15x in the projection. A new plant rarely runs at full output in month one; at Rs 108 crore and Rs 115 crore of EBITDA in the first two years, DSCR is 1.02x and 1.15x. The ratio crosses 1.25x only in year 3, as both loans shrink.
| Year | EBITDA | Cash after tax | Old debt service | New debt service | Total | DSCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 108 | 98 | 47.5 | 48.6 | 96.1 | 1.02 |
| 2 | 115 | 105 | 45.2 | 45.7 | 91.0 | 1.15 |
| 3 | 120 | 110 | 43.0 | 42.9 | 85.9 | 1.28 |
| 4 | 120 | 110 | 40.8 | 40.0 | 80.8 | 1.36 |
Step 3Which fix works: tenor, moratorium or equity?
Test each one, because they behave differently. A one-year moratoriumA period at the start of a loan when principal is not repaid, usually while a project is being built or ramped up; interest is still paid. on principal lifts year 1 to 1.45x but crowds the same Rs 200 crore into six instalments, so year 2 drops to 1.07x. A moratorium moves the problem a year; it does not shrink it. Stretching the tenor to 10 years alone gives a minimum of 1.12x. Rs 60 crore of promoter equity alone gives 1.20x. Combining the two levers, Rs 50 crore of equity and a 10-year loan of Rs 150 crore, gives a minimum of 1.26x, clear of the comfort line every year.
Step 4So what is the credit decision?
Lend Rs 150 crore over 10 years, conditional on Rs 50 crore of promoter equity going in first. Security cover rises from 260 over 200, 1.3x, to 260 over 150, 1.7x. Then add the conditions that protect the bank if the ramp-up is slower still: a first charge on the new plant, a debt service reserve of six months' instalments, a minimum DSCR covenant tested yearly, and drawdown against certified capex rather than upfront. Say the limit too: the case rests on the plant reaching Rs 120 crore of EBITDA, so ask for customer orders or offtake letters that back the Rs 30 crore uplift.
Where candidates lose it
The usual miss is accepting the borrower's DSCR and debating whether 1.15x is close enough to 1.25x. The ratio was built on full output from day one; the job is to rebuild it on a ramp-up and see the first two years.
The second is forgetting the existing debt. Covering only the new loan, cash of Rs 98 crore against Rs 48.6 crore of new debt service looks like 2.0x and hides the real squeeze.
What the interviewer asks next
- The plant reaches only Rs 110 crore of EBITDA. Does the recommended structure still work?
- Why might the bank prefer a cash sweep to a longer tenor?
- How does a debt service reserve change the bank's loss if year 1 disappoints?
Asked at Scotiabank, Corporate Banking, City of London, 2026 (Wall Street Oasis): Case study was decently technical and involved assessing if you should or should not lend to the company
Asked at Scotiabank, Credit Analytics Group (CAG), Toronto, 2026 (Wall Street Oasis): Technical questions about determining if a firm is credit worthy for x loan
Company names and figures are illustrative.
