Helmor Infra doubled revenue from Rs 2,000 crore to Rs 4,000 crore in three years while receivable days rose from 60 to 140 and operating cash flow fell to about 20% of EBITDA. Build the short case from the working capital.

Most of Helmor's reported growth has not turned into cash: receivables have grown from about Rs 329 crore to Rs 1,534 crore, about Rs 877 crore more than the old 60 day pattern would carry. Operating cash flow was flat at about Rs 160 to 180 crore a year while EBITDA rose to Rs 800 crore. The short case is that revenue is being booked faster than customers will pay, and that either write-offs or an equity raise will follow.

A tailor who doubles his orders by letting every customer pay in five months instead of two has more sales and less money in the drawer. Revenue is a claim to cash, and receivable days measure how long that claim takes to become cash; at 140 days, a third of a year's sales sits unpaid on Helmor's balance sheet. Run the numbers year by year. Receivables go from about Rs 329 crore to Rs 1,534 crore while revenue only doubles. At the old 60 days, Rs 4,000 crore of revenue would need only about Rs 658 crore of receivables.

Follow year three's rupees. Of Rs 800 crore of EBITDA, the rise in receivables absorbed Rs 548 crore and tax and interest another Rs 92 crore, leaving Rs 160 crore of operating cash, 20% of EBITDA. Over three years Helmor reported Rs 1,939 crore of EBITDA and collected Rs 510 crore of operating cash, 26%. A contractor growing this fast also needs cash for equipment, so the gap is almost certainly being funded by debt or will need new equity.

Government agencies do pay late, and contractors book unbilled revenueWork done and recognised as revenue but not yet invoiced to the customer, usually because a milestone has not been certified. on long projects before a milestone is certified. The test is whether the receivables are ageing: split them by customer and by age, compare billed with unbilled, and check whether the same large balances appear year after year. Read the auditor's notes on expected credit losses and any related party customers. If a few customers owe most of the balance and those balances keep rolling, the growth is being manufactured at the revenue line.

Then give the portfolio manager the trade, not just the thesis. The catalyst is whatever forces the cash question: an equity raise, a rating agency review of the debt, a write-off, or an auditor qualification. The risks are real. Shorts in a stock that has tripled get squeezed, borrow can be scarce, and a large collection from a state agency can reset the numbers in one quarter. Size it small, set the stop in advance, and add only when the cash flow statement confirms the view rather than when the price moves.