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050

Case 050Long pitches and valuationHard

Rank four businesses from best to worst investment in one hour with quick maths: Palvin Pipes (ROIC 15%, growth 10%, P/E 18), Serik Software (ROIC 40%, growth 20%, P/E 45), Morvanti Hotels (ROIC 7%, growth 8%, P/E 30), Juvara Dairy (ROIC 18%, growth 6%, P/E 14). Use earnings yield plus growth adjusted for reinvestment.

Viking Global InvestorsNew York · 2025

1The situation

You have one hour and one line on each of four businesses. Palvin Pipes earns a 15% return on invested capital, grows 10% a year and trades at 18x earnings. Serik Software earns 40%, grows 20% and trades at 45x. Morvanti Hotels earns 7%, grows 8% and trades at 30x. Juvara Dairy earns 18%, grows 6% and trades at 14x.

The portfolio manager wants a ranking from best to worst investment with the reasoning, using a simple owner's-return estimate: the part of the earnings yield that is paid out after the reinvestment growth requires, plus growth.

2Your task

Rank the four, show the arithmetic, explain why the ranking differs from a ranking by P/E, and say what could overturn it.

Quick check

Which business comes out on top on implied owner's return?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Ranked by implied owner's return: Serik about 21%, Palvin 11.9%, Juvara 10.8%, Morvanti 7.5%. Growth costs reinvestment equal to growth divided by ROIC, so high-return businesses keep more of their earnings yield. That turns the P/E ranking upside down for Serik. Its lead depends on its 45x multiple holding: if the multiple falls to 25x over five years, its return drops to about 8%. Morvanti must raise money to grow at a 7% return, which destroys value.

Step 1What does growth cost?

A farmer who wants a bigger harvest next year keeps back more seed this year; how much he must keep back depends on how many grains each seed yields. To grow earnings by g, a business must reinvest the share g / ROIC of its earnings, so a high return on capital makes growth cheap and a low one makes it expensive. Serik grows 20% by reinvesting 20 / 40, half its earnings. Palvin reinvests 10 / 15, two thirds. Juvara reinvests 6 / 18, a third. Morvanti would need 8 / 7, 114% of its earnings, more than it makes, so it must raise outside money to grow.

The relationship
r≈EP(1−gROIC)+grSerik=145(1−0.200.40)+0.20≈21.1%r \approx \frac{E}{P}\left(1 - \frac{g}{\text{ROIC}}\right) + g \qquad r_{\text{Serik}} = \frac{1}{45}\left(1 - \frac{0.20}{0.40}\right) + 0.20 \approx 21.1\%
E/Pthe earnings yield, one over the P/E
g / ROICthe share of earnings that must be reinvested to grow at g
rthe implied yearly return to an owner, if the P/E stays the same
What it says in wordsAn owner earns the part of the earnings yield that is not needed for reinvestment, plus the growth that reinvestment buys, as long as the multiple does not change.
BusinessEarnings yieldReinvestedYield paid outGrowthImplied return
Serik Software2.2%50%1.1%20%21.1%
Palvin Pipes5.6%67%1.9%10%11.9%
Juvara Dairy7.1%33%4.8%6%10.8%
Morvanti Hotels3.3%114%-0.5%8%7.5%
Ranked by implied return, Serik at 21.1% leads Palvin at 11.9%, Juvara at 10.8% and Morvanti at 7.5%, whose reinvestment need above 100% makes its paid-out yield negative.
Owner's return = earnings yield left after reinvestment + growth5%10%15%20%11.9%PalvinP/E 18, ROIC 15%growth 10%21.1%SerikP/E 45, ROIC 40%growth 20%-0.5%7.5%MorvantiP/E 30, ROIC 7%growth 8%10.8%JuvaraP/E 14, ROIC 18%growth 6%Legendyield paid outgrowthcash it must raiseRanking by P/E:Juvara, Palvin, Morvanti,SerikBy return: Serik first
Each business's implied return is its earnings yield left after reinvestment plus growth: Serik reaches 21.1% despite a 45x P/E, while Morvanti's 7% ROIC forces it to raise money to grow, leaving it last at 7.5%.
Step 2Why does this reorder a P/E ranking?

By P/E alone the order is Juvara, Palvin, Morvanti, Serik: cheapest first. A P/E prices one year of earnings but not what it costs to grow them, so it flatters businesses whose growth is expensive and punishes those whose growth is cheap. Juvara's 7.1% earnings yield looks best, but it grows only 6%. Palvin's 10% growth absorbs two thirds of its 5.6% yield. Morvanti looks like a growth stock at 30x, but at a 7% return on capital, likely below its cost of capitalThe return investors require for the risk of a business. Growth earning less than it destroys value., say 11%, every rupee it reinvests is worth less than a rupee, so its growth destroys value rather than creating it.

Step 3What could overturn the ranking?

The formula assumes each P/E stays where it is and each growth rate lasts. That is most doubtful for Serik. If Serik's growth slows and its P/E falls from 45x to 25x over five years, the lower multiple costs about 11% a year, and its return drops to about 8%, below Palvin and Juvara. So the honest ranking says Serik first, if its high returns on capital and growth last long enough to justify 45x, and names that as the question to answer next. Palvin and Juvara are close enough that the ranking between them could flip on a small change in growth, which is worth saying rather than hiding.

Serik's lead depends on its multiple holdingSerik, P/E holds at 45x21.1% a yearSerik, P/E falls to 25x over five years7.7% a yearPalvin, P/E holds at 18x11.9% a yearJuvara, P/E holds at 14x10.8% a yearImplied annual return, with the multiple change added
Serik's 21.1% implied return assumes its 45x P/E holds; if the P/E falls to 25x over five years, the return falls to about 7.7% a year, below Palvin's 11.9% and Juvara's 10.8%.

In the room, present it in this order: the ranking, the one formula, the insight that growth is cheap only when returns on capital are high, and the risk to the top pick. With one hour and one line per company, the interviewer is scoring whether you choose a sensible framework quickly and know where it breaks, not whether you reach a precise number.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is ranking by P/E and calling Juvara the best investment and Serik the worst. That treats growth as free, when for Morvanti it costs more than the business earns and for Serik it costs only half.

The second is ranking Serik first with no caveat. Its lead rests on a 45x multiple holding for years; a strong answer puts the multiple risk next to the ranking and shows how much of the lead it could erase.

What the interviewer asks next

  • What P/E would make Juvara's implied return equal to Serik's?
  • Morvanti's ROIC rises to 12%. Where does it rank now?
  • Which of the four would you short, and why?
  • How would debt on any of these balance sheets change the arithmetic?

Asked at Viking Global Investors, Private Equity, New York, 2025 (Wall Street Oasis): Case study was difficult, little information given about each company and time crunch (1 hour).

← Case 049Quillon Software, an Indian SaaS company, has revenue of Rs 800 crore growing 25% a year and an EBITDA margin of 18% that management says reaches 28% by year three. It trades at 6x EV/sales (EV Rs 4,800 crore) against peers at 5x. Pitch it: what do year-three EBITDA and a 25x exit multiple imply for the return, and what has to go right?Case 051 →Mandor Hotels' three-year bond trades at 82 with a 9% coupon and its shares at Rs 40. With a 25% chance of default, which instrument gives the better risk-adjusted return, and why might a credit investor and an equity investor disagree?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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