Case 012Operating cases and estimationWarm up
Value one vending machine on a college campus with a DCF. Build its unlevered free cash flow from the snacks it sells, and say whether it is worth the price.
1The situation
Munchpal Vending wants to place one machine in a college hostel. The machine costs Rs 3 lakh. It should sell 120 snacks a day at Rs 30 each for 300 days a year, the days the college is open, with a 40% gross margin.
Restocking labour and the rent paid to the college come to Rs 1.5 lakh a year. The machine lasts five years and is depreciated straight-line to nothing, tax is 25%, and Munchpal uses a 12% discount rate. Snacks are bought weekly, so there is no stock build-up worth modelling.
2Your task
Build one year of unlevered free cash flow, discount five years of it, and tell the interviewer whether the machine is worth Rs 3 lakh and what the answer depends on.
Quick check
Depreciation is Rs 60,000 a year. How does it enter unlevered free cash flow?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
The machine is worth about Rs 8.2 lakh against a Rs 3 lakh cost, an NPV of about Rs 5.2 lakh. Sales of Rs 10.8 lakh give gross profit of Rs 4.32 lakh and EBITDA of Rs 2.82 lakh. After tax, with depreciation only as a tax shield, free cash flow is about Rs 2.27 lakh a year. The answer rests on 120 snacks a day: below about 67 a day the machine destroys value.
Step 1How do you get from snacks to unlevered free cash flow?
Walk down the same lines you would for a company, because a vending machine is a company with one product. Unlevered free cash flow is operating profit after tax, plus non-cash charges, less capex and less money tied up in working capital. UnleveredBefore any interest or debt repayment, so the value belongs to all providers of capital, not just the owner. means you ignore how Munchpal pays for the machine; a loan changes who gets the cash, not how much the machine makes. It is the same logic as asking what a rented-out flat earns before deciding whether to buy it with a home loan.
Sales are 120 snacks times Rs 30 times 300 days, Rs 10.8 lakh. A 40% margin leaves Rs 4.32 lakh of gross profit. Less Rs 1.5 lakh of restocking and rent, EBITDA is Rs 2.82 lakh. Depreciation is Rs 3 lakh over five years, Rs 0.6 lakh a year, so operating profit is Rs 2.22 lakh and tax is Rs 0.555 lakh. Add the Rs 0.6 lakh of depreciation back, and free cash flow is Rs 2.265 lakh a year. There is no further capex and no working capital, so that is the whole build.
| Rs lakh a year | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 10.80 | 120 x Rs 30 x 300 days |
| Gross profit | 4.32 | 40% of sales |
| Restocking and rent | (1.50) | given |
| EBITDA | 2.82 | |
| Depreciation | (0.60) | Rs 3 lakh over 5 years |
| Operating profit | 2.22 | |
| Tax at 25% | (0.555) | on operating profit |
| Add back depreciation | 0.60 | not a cash cost |
| Unlevered free cash flow | 2.265 | every year for five years |
Step 2What is it worth, and is that worth the price?
Discount five equal years at 12%. The five-year annuity factor is 3.605, so the cash is worth Rs 8.16 lakh today. Against a Rs 3 lakh cost the NPV is about Rs 5.16 lakh, an IRR of about 70%, and the machine pays for itself in about 1.3 years. There is no terminal value: the machine is scrapped at year five, and assuming any resale value would be a guess.
Step 3What does the answer depend on?
Find the one input that decides it and flex it. The machine breaks even at about 67 snacks a day, so the forecast of 120 has a cushion of about 44%, but every other input is small next to it. Ask how 120 was estimated: a hostel of 500 students buying a snack every fourth day gives 125, which is plausible but untested. Then name the risks a banker would: the college can raise the rent once it sees the sales, a second machine down the corridor halves the volume, and the year is 300 days only if exams and holidays fall as assumed.
The interviewer is not testing vending machines. They are checking you can build free cash flow from first principles, keep depreciation in its place, and say which assumption carries the value. Close with that sentence.
Where candidates lose it
The most common slip is subtracting depreciation as if it were cash, which cuts free cash flow by Rs 0.6 lakh a year and the NPV by about 40%. The second is ignoring it altogether and paying tax on EBITDA, which loses the Rs 15,000 a year tax shield.
The other miss is subtracting the Rs 3 lakh cost every year, or not at all. It is spent once, today, and appears once, against the present value of the cash.
What the interviewer asks next
- How would you value the machine if the college took 15% of sales instead of a fixed rent?
- What changes if Munchpal finances the machine with a loan at 11%?
- If the machine could be sold for Rs 50,000 at the end of year 5, what is that worth today?
Asked at Houlihan Lokey, Investment Banking, New York, 2026 (Wall Street Oasis): Question about valuing a vending machine (use a DCF and explain how to get unlevered free cash flows)
Company names and figures are illustrative.
