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028

Case 028Capital markets and financingWarm up

A software company sits on Rs 3,000 crore of idle cash. Compute the EPS effect of buying back shares at a premium and set out the case for a buyback, a special dividend and holding the cash.

1The situation

Mridang Technologies, a listed IT services company, has Rs 3,000 crore of net cash in bank deposits earning 6% before tax. It earns net income of Rs 600 crore, including the deposit interest, on 50 crore shares, so EPS is Rs 12.00. The shares trade at Rs 150, a P/E of 12.5, and tax is 25%.

The board is weighing three uses for the cash: a tender offer to buy back shares at a 10% premium, Rs 165; a special dividend of the whole amount; or keeping it for acquisitions that the management team says are 'in the pipeline'.

2Your task

What happens to EPS if all the cash goes into the buyback, what happens under the dividend, and what is the case for each of the three options? Which would you put to the board?

Quick check

The buyback is at a 10% premium to the market price. Does it raise or lower EPS?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

A buyback of all the cash at Rs 165 lifts EPS from Rs 12.00 to about Rs 14.61, 22%; a special dividend cuts it to Rs 9.30 but hands each holder Rs 60 in cash; holding leaves it at Rs 12.00. The buyback works because the shares earn 7.27% at Rs 165 and the deposits earn 4.5% after tax. EPS accretion does not settle the question: the dividend returns the same cash without a premium, and holding is right only if the acquisitions are real and earn more than the cost of capital.

Step 1Why does idle cash drag on EPS in the first place?

Because the cash earns less than the business it sits inside. Rs 3,000 crore at 6% earns Rs 180 crore before tax, Rs 135 crore after, so Rs 465 crore of Mridang's Rs 600 crore comes from operations and the rest from a bank account. The market pays 12.5x for the whole, but strip the cash out and it is paying only about 9.7x for the operating business, because nobody pays a multiple for a deposit. It is like a household with Rs 30 lakh in a savings account at 6% and a home loan at 9%: the money is safe, but every month it sits there it costs the family the difference.

Step 2What does the buyback do to EPS, and why?

Rs 3,000 crore at Rs 165 buys 18.18 crore shares, 36% of the company, leaving 31.82 crore. Net income falls to Rs 465 crore because the interest is gone. EPS is Rs 465 crore over 31.82 crore shares, Rs 14.61, up 22%. The reason is a yield comparison, not the share count: at Rs 165 each share bought carries Rs 12.00 of earnings, a 7.27% earnings yieldEarnings per share divided by the price paid for the share, the inverse of the P/E., while each rupee of cash gives up only 4.5% after tax. The buyback keeps lifting EPS at any price below Rs 266.67, where the earnings yield falls to 4.5%, which is a P/E of 22.2.

The same Rs 3,000 crore, four ways: what happens to earnings per share12.00Today14.61Buyback atRs 165+22%9.30Specialdividend-22%, plus Rs 60 cash12.00Hold thecash0%Rs per share. Net income 600 today, 465 without the deposit interest.Why the buyback lifts EPSShares bought at Rs 165 earn12.00 / 165 = 7.27%Cash in deposits earns6% x (1 - 25%) = 4.50%Swap the lower yield forthe higher one: EPS rises.It stops rising at a price of12.00 / 4.5% = Rs 266.67a P/E of 22.2
Of the three uses for Mridang's Rs 3,000 crore, only the buyback lifts EPS, to Rs 14.61, because shares at Rs 165 earn 7.27% against 4.5% on the deposits; the dividend drops EPS to Rs 9.30 while paying Rs 60 a share in cash, and holding changes nothing.
TodayBuyback at Rs 165Special dividendHold
Net income, Rs crore600.0465.0465.0600.0
Shares, crore50.0031.8250.0050.00
EPS, Rs12.0014.619.3012.00
Cash paid to holders, Rs crore3,000 to those who tender3,000 to all, Rs 60 a share
Net cash left, Rs crore3,000003,000
The buyback and the dividend both remove the Rs 135 crore of after-tax interest, but only the buyback cuts the share count, so EPS rises to Rs 14.61 under one and falls to Rs 9.30 under the other.
Step 3If the buyback lifts EPS by a fifth, why is the answer not obvious?

Because EPS accretion is arithmetic, and the board is asking about value. Under the dividend, each holder gets Rs 60 in cash and a share that now earns Rs 9.30; the total is the same Rs 3,000 crore, returned without paying anyone a premium. The buyback pays Rs 15 a share over the market price to those who sell, Rs 273 crore in all, and that comes out of the pockets of those who stay. It is a good trade for the remaining holders only if the shares are worth more than Rs 165, which is a view on the business, not a sum. There is also a practical point: 36% of the company cannot be bought in the market; it needs a tender offer, and holders decide whether to tender. The tax treatment of a dividend against a buyback in the holder's hands also differs, and changes with the budget, so tell the board to confirm the current rules before choosing.

Holding the cash is right in exactly one case: the acquisitions are real, priced, and earn more than Mridang's cost of capital, which is far above 4.5%. 'In the pipeline' is not that. A board that has sat on Rs 3,000 crore for years has already told the market it has nothing to buy, and the ex-cash multiple of about 9.7x is the market's reply.

Step 4What would you put to the board?

A split, with a reason for each part. Return most of the cash, keeping perhaps a year of operating cash for a named deal with a deadline; if the deal is not signed within the year, return that too. Use a buyback only if the board believes the shares are cheap at Rs 165, and run it through a tender so every holder can choose; otherwise pay a special dividend, which treats every holder alike and pays no premium. Say plainly that the 22% EPS lift is the result of giving up a 4.5% deposit, something any company with cash can do, and that the market will not pay 12.5x for it twice.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates say the premium makes the buyback dilutive. The premium lowers the earnings yield from 8.0% at the market price to 7.3% at Rs 165, but both are well above the 4.5% the cash earns, so EPS rises either way.

The second miss is stopping at the EPS number and recommending the buyback. The dividend returns the same cash with no premium, and the honest answer says that EPS accretion from spending idle cash is mechanical, not a sign the shares are cheap.

What the interviewer asks next

  • At what buyback price would EPS be unchanged, and what P/E is that?
  • The company borrows Rs 1,000 crore at 9% to make the buyback bigger. Is that part accretive?
  • How does the market usually react to a special dividend compared with a buyback, and why?
  • What questions would you ask about the acquisition pipeline before letting the board keep the cash?
← Case 027An oil and gas producer has proved reserves of oil and gas sold at a discount to the benchmark. Build its net asset value and show what a wider oil differential costs.Case 029 →A shipping company in restructuring is worth Rs 600 crore against Rs 820 crore of claims in five classes. Run the waterfall, find each recovery and name the fulcrum security.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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