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039

Case 039Sector valuationCore

Two software companies: one grows fast and burns cash, the other grows slowly and throws off cash. Compare them on the rule of 40 and growth-adjusted multiples, and say which looks cheaper.

LazardSan Francisco · 2026

1The situation

Stackvara Software has annual recurring revenue of Rs 500 crore growing 45% a year, a free cash flow margin of minus 10%, and net revenue retention of 125%. It trades at 12x ARR.

Nimbet Software has ARR of Rs 800 crore growing 15%, a free cash flow margin of 30%, and net revenue retention of 105%. It trades at 8x ARR. Both sell subscription software to mid-sized businesses.

2Your task

How do they compare on the rule of 40 and on growth-adjusted multiples, and which looks cheaper?

Quick check

Which company scores higher on the rule of 40?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Nimbet looks cheaper on what is proven today; Stackvara looks cheaper only per point of growth. Nimbet scores 45 on the rule of 40 against Stackvara's 35, and costs 0.18x ARR per point against 0.34x. Per point of growth alone, Stackvara is cheaper, 0.27x against 0.53x. Stackvara's 125% retention is the best evidence its growth lasts, so the question is how long it stays above 30%.

Step 1What does the rule of 40 measure, and why do software investors use it?

A young shop that spends heavily to open new branches and a mature shop that banks most of its takings can both be good businesses; the question is whether the spending is buying enough growth. The rule of 40 adds revenue growth to free cash flow margin, so a company can earn its score through growth, through cash, or through a mix, and 40 is the line investors treat as healthy. Stackvara scores 45 minus 10, 35. Nimbet scores 15 plus 30, 45. On this measure Nimbet is the stronger business today, even though it grows a third as fast.

Growth against cash margin: the rule of 40 line, bubbles sized by EV/ARR-20%-10%+10%+20%+30%0%10%20%30%40%50%revenue growthvertical: free cash flow marginrule of 40: growth + margin = 4012xStackvara: score 35NRR 125%, EV Rs 6,000 cr8xNimbet: score 45NRR 105%, EV Rs 6,400 cr
Stackvara sits below the rule of 40 line at 45% growth and minus 10% margin, a score of 35, yet trades at 12x ARR; Nimbet sits above it at 15% growth and 30% margin, a score of 45, at 8x ARR.
Step 2Which looks cheaper once you adjust the multiple?

Divide the multiple by what you are paying for. Per point of growth Stackvara is cheaper, 0.27x ARR against 0.53x; per point of rule of 40 score Nimbet is cheaper, 0.18x against 0.34x. The two adjustments disagree because one ignores cash. Nimbet produces Rs 240 crore of free cash flow a year, so its Rs 6,400 crore enterprise value is about 27x cash flow; Stackvara burns Rs 50 crore a year and has no cash multiple at all.

MetricStackvaraNimbet
Enterprise value, Rs crore6,0006,400
EV / ARR12.0x8.0x
EV / next year ARR8.3x7.0x
Rule of 40 score3545
EV / ARR per point of growth0.27x0.53x
EV / ARR per point of rule of 400.34x0.18x
Free cash flow, Rs crore(50)240
Growth from existing customers25 of 45 points5 of 15 points
Stackvara is cheaper per point of growth and on next year's ARR; Nimbet is cheaper per point of rule of 40 score and is the only one producing cash, Rs 240 crore a year.
Step 3What does retention tell you about how long the growth lasts?

Retention is the durability test. Net revenue retentionRevenue this year from customers who were customers a year ago, divided by what they paid last year; above 100% means existing customers spend more over time. of 125% means Stackvara's existing customers alone grow revenue 25% a year, so more than half its 45% growth needs no new sales. Nimbet's 105% gives it only 5 points from its base. Run a simple test: if Stackvara's growth slows to 35% and then 25%, its ARR in three years is about Rs 1,223 crore, roughly the same as Nimbet's Rs 1,217 crore at a steady 15%. On that three-year ARR, Stackvara costs 4.9x and Nimbet 5.3x, but only Nimbet is certain to be producing cash by then.

Close with a view and its condition. Nimbet is cheaper on today's evidence: a higher score, real cash flow and a lower multiple. Stackvara is cheaper only if its growth decays slowly and its margin turns positive, and 125% retention makes that more plausible than for most fast growers. The limit of both rules is that they are cross-sectional shortcuts; neither replaces a view on how long growth lasts and what margins look like at maturity.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is calling the faster grower cheaper because its multiple per point of growth is lower, without noticing that it burns cash. Growth-adjusted multiples ignore profitability, which is the whole reason the rule of 40 exists.

The second is treating retention as a detail. It tells you how much of the growth is already contracted from existing customers, and an interviewer in a technology group expects you to use it to judge durability.

What the interviewer asks next

  • What growth rate must Stackvara sustain for three years to justify 12x if peers settle at 6x mature ARR?
  • How would you adjust ARR for a customer base paying monthly rather than annually?
  • Why might gross retention matter more than net retention in a downturn?

Asked at Lazard, Investment Banking, San Francisco, 2026 (Wall Street Oasis): including SaaS valuation metrics (ARR, NDR, Rule of 40), how to think about revenue quality

← Case 038A cash-burning airline has cash, an undrawn revolver with a springing covenant, and leases it may be able to defer. How many months of runway does it really have, and what should management do first?Case 040 →A chemicals company needs Rs 2,000 crore for an acquisition. Compare all debt, all equity and a 50/50 mix on EPS and on leverage against the rating threshold, and recommend one.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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