Case 079Comps and relative valueCore
Pitch one stock to buy and one to sell from two invented paint makers: Keshvi at 45x growing 18% with a 30% return on capital, and Ornella at 50x growing 9% with an 18% return and stretching receivables. Build the case and say what would prove it wrong.
1The situation
Two invented listed paint makers sell into the same decorative market. Keshvi Paints trades at 45x earnings, has grown earnings 18% a year and earns a 30% return on capital. Its net profit is Rs 300 crore, so it is worth about Rs 13,500 crore.
Ornella Paints trades at 50x, has grown earnings 9% a year and earns 18% on capital. Its net profit is Rs 400 crore on revenue of Rs 3,650 crore, a value of about Rs 20,000 crore. Its receivable days rose from 40 to 55 over the last year while Keshvi's held steady.
2Your task
Give a long and a short, the numbers behind them, a catalyst, and the specific evidence that would make you close the trade.
Quick check
Which single number best shows that Ornella is the dearer stock?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
The pitch is long Keshvi, short Ornella, as a pair. Ornella costs more on earnings while growing half as fast, with a PEG of 5.6 against 2.5 and a weaker return on capital. Its receivables jumped by about Rs 150 crore, a hint that growth is being bought with dealer credit. The trade is wrong if Keshvi's growth falls below about 8% a year or Ornella's receivables prove a one-off.
Step 1Why pitch a pair rather than one stock?
A pair isolates the thing you actually know. Owning Keshvi and selling Ornella against it removes most of the paint cycle and the market, so the trade pays only if the gap between the two closes. It is like backing the better of two shops on one street: if the street empties, both suffer, but you only care which one keeps its customers. Interviewers ask for a buy and a sell precisely to see whether you can build a relative valueA view that one asset is cheap or dear compared with a close peer, rather than cheap or dear in absolute terms. case rather than two unrelated opinions.
Step 2What do the numbers say about price and quality?
Put the four lines side by side. Ornella costs more on earnings, grows half as fast and earns less on each rupee it reinvests, so it is dearer on every axis that drives value. Return on capital also tells you how growth is funded. Growth equals return on capital times the share of profit reinvested, so Keshvi reinvests 60% of profit to grow 18% while Ornella reinvests 50% to grow 9%. Ornella's 50x is paying for growth it does not have.
Make the growth gap concrete. Ten years of 18% growth multiplies earnings by 5.23; ten years of 9% by 2.37. Today's price is 8.6x Keshvi's year 10 earnings but 21.1x Ornella's. Even if Keshvi slows to 12%, you pay 14.5x. Keshvi only loses this comparison if it grows below about 7.9% a year for a decade, slower than Ornella itself.
Step 3What is the catalyst, and what would prove the pitch wrong?
The catalyst is Ornella's next two sets of results. Receivables up 15 days on Rs 3,650 crore of revenue is about Rs 150 crore of sales not yet collected, 38% of a year's profit. If dealers are being given longer credit to take stock, either growth slows when the scheme ends or cash flow lags profit, and the market notices either. Say the honest counterweight too: Ornella turns 50% of profit into free cash against Keshvi's 40%, so on today's free cash yield, 1.00% against 0.89%, Ornella is slightly cheaper.
Close with the exits. The pitch is wrong if Keshvi's volume growth slows towards single digits, if Ornella's receivable days fall back to 40 next quarter, or if a new entrant cuts prices for both. The first breaks the growth gap, the second removes the quality concern, and the third hits the long side harder because high growth is what Keshvi's multiple pays for. Naming the exit before the entry is what makes a pitch a trade rather than a hope.
Where candidates lose it
The common miss is pitching on P/E alone: Ornella is at 50x and Keshvi at 45x, so sell Ornella. A five turn gap is weak evidence. The case is in growth, return on capital and the receivables, and a candidate who never divides by growth leaves the strongest number on the table.
The second is giving no way to be wrong. An interviewer will push on what would make you close the trade; without a named signal, the pitch sounds like a view that can never fail.
What the interviewer asks next
- How would you size the two legs so the pair is neutral to a market move?
- Ornella announces a buyback. Does that change the short?
- Keshvi is about to double capacity. How does that change its return on capital for the next two years?
- Which line in Ornella's cash flow statement would confirm or kill the receivables concern?
Asked at Bank of America, Investment Banking, New York, 2023 (Wall Street Oasis): Asked basic technicals and a stock pitch to buy and sell
Company names and figures are illustrative.
