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095

Case 095Credit and leveraged financeHard

A solar park costs Rs 500 crore and will generate Rs 60 crore a year of cash available for debt service for 25 years. Lenders need 1.3x cover over an 18-year tenor at 9%. What is the maximum debt, the gearing, and why does the tenor matter?

1The situation

Suryavel Solar Park, an invented 250 MW project, costs Rs 500 crore to build. Under its 25-year power purchase agreement it is expected to produce cash available for debt service of Rs 60 crore a year, after operating costs and tax, flat for 25 years.

A consortium of lenders will lend on project finance terms: a minimum debt service cover ratio of 1.30x in every year, an 18-year tenor, and a fixed 9% rate, with equal annual payments of principal and interest. The sponsor asks how much debt the project can raise, how much equity that leaves, and why the lenders will not go to 25 years.

2Your task

Size the debt from the cash flow and the cover, compute the gearing and the equity cheque, and explain what the tenor and the tail do for lenders and for the sponsor.

Quick check

How much of the Rs 60 crore a year can go to debt service at 1.30x cover?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Maximum debt is about Rs 404 crore, 81% of cost, leaving an equity cheque of about Rs 96 crore. Debt service can be at most 60 / 1.3 = Rs 46.2 crore a year, and that annuity for 18 years at 9% is worth Rs 404 crore. The tenor matters because the same payment supports Rs 372 crore over 15 years and Rs 453 crore over 25; lenders stop at 18 to keep a seven-year tail of cash flow as their reserve.

Step 1Where does the debt number come from, if not from the cost?

From what the project can pay, which is the whole idea of project financeLending to a single asset where the only source of repayment is the cash flow of that asset, with no recourse to the other businesses of the sponsor.. A bank deciding how large a home loan to give does not start from the house price; it starts from the salary and asks what monthly payment the borrower can carry, then works back to a loan. Here the salary is Rs 60 crore a year. Lenders want it to be 1.3 times the payment, so the payment is at most Rs 46.2 crore. An annuity of Rs 46.2 crore for 18 years at 9% has a present value of 46.2 x 8.756 = Rs 404 crore, and that is the loan. Equity is whatever the cost leaves: 500 less 404, about Rs 96 crore, so gearing is 81/19.

The relationship
D=CFADSDSCR×1−(1+r)−nr=601.3×1−1.09−180.09=46.15×8.756=404D = \frac{\text{CFADS}}{\text{DSCR}} \times \frac{1 - (1+r)^{-n}}{r} = \frac{60}{1.3} \times \frac{1 - 1.09^{-18}}{0.09} = 46.15 \times 8.756 = 404
CFADScash available for debt service, Rs 60 crore a year
DSCRthe minimum cover lenders require, 1.30x
r, nthe rate, 9%, and the tenor, 18 years
Dthe maximum debt, about Rs 404 crore
What it says in wordsDebt is the cash flow the lenders can claim each year, capitalised over the years they are willing to wait, and nothing in the formula is the cost of the asset.
Twenty five years of cash, eighteen of debt service, seven of tail151015182025Rs 60 crore a year available for debt serviceto lenders: 46.2 a year, cover 1.30xto equity: 13.8 a yeartail7 yearsno debtYear of operationDebt = 46.2 x annuity factor (9%, 18 years) 8.756 = Rs 404 crore, 81% of the Rs 500 crore cost
Rs 60 crore a year for 25 years supports Rs 46.2 crore of annual debt service for 18 years, which at 9% is Rs 404 crore of debt, 81% of the Rs 500 crore cost, with seven years of undrawn cash flow, Rs 420 crore, left as a tail.
Step 2Why does the tenor change the answer so much?

Because the payment is fixed and the loan is the sum of the payments, discounted. Rs 46.2 crore a year supports Rs 372 crore over 15 years, Rs 404 crore over 18 and Rs 453 crore over 25, so three extra years of patience are worth about Rs 32 crore of debt. The curve flattens: years 19 to 25 add only Rs 49 crore, because a rupee due in year 25 is worth 0.12 rupees today at 9%. The rate works the same way: at 10% the 18-year loan is Rs 379 crore, and at a 1.20x cover it is Rs 438 crore. Each lender term is a lever on the debt size, and the sponsor negotiates all three.

The same Rs 46 crore a year supports more debt the longer lenders will wait30035040045050010121518202225Debt tenor, yearsRs croreproject cost 500: debt never reaches it15 yrs: 372 (74%)18 yrs: 404 (81%)25 yrs: 453 (91%)
At 9% and 1.30x cover the same Rs 46.2 crore of annual debt service supports Rs 372 crore over 15 years, Rs 404 crore over 18 and Rs 453 crore over 25, a curve that rises with tenor but never reaches the Rs 500 crore cost.
Step 3What is the tail for, and what does the sponsor get?

Lenders stop at 18 years on a 25-year contract so that seven years of cash flow, Rs 420 crore undiscounted, sit behind the loan as a reserve nobody has borrowed against. If output disappoints and the project cannot pay in year 12, the loan can be stretched into the tail instead of defaulting. Lenders also doubt year 25 more than year 5: panels degrade, the offtaker may weaken, and a contract renewal is not a certainty. For the sponsor, the equity of Rs 96 crore receives Rs 13.8 crore a year during the loan and the full Rs 60 crore in the tail, an equity IRR of about 16.2% against the 9% the lenders earn. Gearing is what turns a project earning a modest return on cost into a double-digit return on equity, and the tenor is what sets the gearing.

Lender termMaximum debt, Rs croreGearing
15 years, 9%, 1.30x37274%
18 years, 9%, 1.30x (the offer)40481%
18 years, 10%, 1.30x37976%
18 years, 9%, 1.20x43888%
25 years, 9%, 1.30x45391%
The offer supports Rs 404 crore; three fewer years cut it to Rs 372 crore, one point of rate to Rs 379 crore, and a looser 1.20x cover lifts it to Rs 438 crore, so every lender term is a debt-sizing lever.

Close with the limit. The Rs 60 crore is flat and certain in the case; in a real model it varies with irradiation, tariff escalation and degradation, and lenders size on a downside case, often a P90 output estimate, so the real loan is smaller than this. In the first year Rs 36.4 crore of the payment is interest and only Rs 9.8 crore is principal; sculpting the repayments to a flat cover ratio rather than a flat payment is the usual refinement, and it gives the same loan size when cash flow is flat.

Where candidates lose it

The common miss is sizing from the asset: 70% or 80% of Rs 500 crore because that is what project debt usually looks like. The answer happens to land near 80%, but for the wrong reason, and the interviewer will change the cash flow to Rs 45 crore and watch the candidate who cannot move with it.

The second is capitalising the full Rs 60 crore, which gives about Rs 525 crore and more debt than the project costs. The cover ratio is a haircut on cash flow before capitalising, not a check applied afterwards.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Cash flow is Rs 70 crore a year for the first ten years and Rs 50 crore after. How would you sculpt the debt?
  • The lenders offer 20 years at 9.5%. Is that better or worse for the sponsor?
  • Why do lenders size on a P90 output case when the sponsor's model uses P50?
  • What does a debt service reserve account do, and how does it interact with the cover ratio?
← Case 094A distributor of maintenance and repair products has Rs 900 crore of revenue at an 8% EBITDA margin in a Rs 30,000 crore market growing 9% a year where the top five hold 12%. Assess the market and the company's position, then value it at 12x to 14x EBITDA and say what earns the top of the range.Case 096 →Creditors owed Rs 2,000 crore by an insolvent steel company must choose between Rs 900 crore upfront and a plan paying Rs 400 crore upfront, Rs 800 crore over four years and 10% of the reorganised equity valued at Rs 1,500 crore. Discount at 12%. Which plan, and what are they really voting on?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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