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022

Case 022Liquidity, redemptions and stressHard

A Rs 2,400 crore credit risk fund faces Rs 600 crore of redemptions in a week with 9% in cash and treasury bills. Selling its most liquid bonds first would cut AAA holdings from 42% to about 23% of what remains. Sell the liquid assets, sell a vertical slice, or borrow? Who bears the cost in each?

1The situation

Hiranya Mutual Fund's credit risk fund, an invented scheme of Rs 2,400 crore, holds 9% in cash and treasury bills, 42% in AAA bonds, 30% in AA and 19% in A-rated and lower paper. After a rival's fund suffered a default, Rs 600 crore of redemption requests arrive in a week, a quarter of the fund.

The dealing desk estimates that selling in a hurry costs about 0.1% on AAA bonds, 0.6% on AA and 2% on A and below, against the prices at which the fund values them. The fund can borrow for short periods against its holdings at about 8% a year, within the limits the regulations set. The risk committee meets this evening.

2Your task

Which way of raising the Rs 600 crore do you recommend, who pays under each, and what do you say to investors who stay?

Quick check

If the fund meets the Rs 600 crore by selling its AAA bonds, who is worse off afterwards?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Sell a vertical slice, so the fund that remains is the fund investors bought, and the cost of leaving is shared by those leaving. It realises about Rs 3.6 crore of haircuts, 15 basis points across everyone. Selling liquid assets first costs nothing today but leaves stayers with AAA at about 23% and liquid assets at 35% instead of 51%, and the next wave would cost them about 9 basis points. Borrowing only defers the sale at the stayers' expense.

Step 1What is the fund actually deciding?

Six flatmates split a fridge. Two move out and take all the fresh food because it is easiest to carry, leaving the other four with tins. Nobody paid anything, and the four are worse off. A fund meeting redemptions is choosing which investors bear the cost of turning bonds into cash, and the easiest choice, selling what sells, quietly hands that cost to whoever stays. The question is not which sale is cheapest today; it is which sale leaves the remaining investors with the fund they were sold and makes the leavers pay for their own exit.

Step 2What does selling the liquid assets first do?

It is painless on the day. Rs 600 crore of AAA bonds go at almost full price, about Rs 0.6 crore of haircut, and the cash buffer is kept because the fund's liquidity rules need it. But the fund that remains has AAA at about 23% instead of 42%, A and below at 25% instead of 19%, and assets it can sell quickly at 35% instead of 51%. On the credit team's own loss assumptions, expected losses rise from about 21 to about 27 basis points a year, which is modest; the real damage is the next week. If another Rs 600 crore leaves, the fund has only Rs 408 crore of AAA left and must sell AA at a 0.6% haircut, costing stayers about 9 basis points, and the fund after that is mostly A-rated paper that nobody is bidding for. Runs feed on exactly this: the investors who understand it leave first.

What the fund looks like after Rs 600 crore leaves, by how the sale is done19%30%42%9%BeforeRs 2,400 cr25%40%23%12%Sell liquid firstRs 1,800 cr19%30%42%9%Vertical sliceRs 1,800 cr19%30%42%9%Borrow, then sliceRs 1,800 cr0%50%100%Cash and T-billsAAAAAA and belowliquid assets 51% to 35%
Selling the liquid assets first leaves the remaining Rs 1,800 crore with AAA at about 23% instead of 42% and liquid assets at 35% instead of 51%, while a vertical slice or a bridge loan followed by a slice leaves the fund's quality exactly as it was.
Step 3What does a vertical slice cost, and who pays?

Sell a quarter of every holding. The haircuts on the AA and lower-rated paper are real: about Rs 3.6 crore in all, 15 basis points of the fund. Because the sales are made before the day's NAV is struck, that cost is in the NAV everyone receives, so the leavers bear their share of it and the stayers keep the fund they bought. The portfolio afterwards is 42% AAA and 9% cash, the same as before, and the next wave costs the same 20 basis points, not more. The limit is practical: a quarter of the A-rated paper may not find a buyer in a week at any sensible price, so a real slice is tilted towards what trades, with the tilt disclosed to the committee.

ApproachCost today, Rs croreWho pays todayAAA afterNext Rs 600 crore costs stayers
Sell liquid first0.6Nobody, visibly23%about 9 bp and a mostly A-rated fund
Vertical slice3.6Everyone, leavers included42%about 20 bp
Borrow one month, then slice4 interest + 3.6Stayers pay the interest42%about 20 bp
The vertical slice costs about Rs 3.6 crore today and shares it with the leavers; selling liquid assets first costs nothing today and about 9 basis points on the next wave, all on the stayers; borrowing adds about Rs 4 crore of interest a month to the stayers' bill.
Step 4When is borrowing the right answer?

Only when the redemptions are a passing panic and the money is likely to come back. A month's borrowing of Rs 600 crore at 8% costs about Rs 4 crore, 22 basis points of the remaining fund, paid entirely by the stayers, while the leavers get full NAV today. If the redemptions continue, the fund has paid interest and still has to sell, so borrowing is a bridge, not a plan, and it is used to avoid dumping bonds into a one-week panic, not to avoid selling at all. The regulations cap how much a scheme can borrow and for how long; the committee should confirm the current limits before relying on it.

Who pays for the Rs 600 crore leaving, under each approachSell liquid first2 bpTodayeveryone9 bpNext wavestayers onlyplus a weaker portfoliofor stayersVertical slice15 bpTodayeveryone20 bpNext wavestayers onlyquality unchanged; leaversshare the costBorrow for a month22 bpIntereststayers only20 bpThen the saleas aboveonly worth it ifmoney comes back
Under a vertical slice about 15 basis points of haircut is paid by everyone in the fund including the leavers; selling liquid assets first pushes about 9 basis points onto the stayers at the next wave; borrowing charges the stayers about 22 basis points a month and still leaves the sale to be made.
Step 5What do you tell the investors who stay?

The truth, in numbers: a quarter of the fund left, the fund sold a quarter of everything, the haircut was shared, and the portfolio they own is the one they owned last week. The tools that make leavers pay their own way, such as exit loads, swing pricing that adjusts the NAV on days of large flows, and a standing liquid buffer, work only if they exist before the run, so the second recommendation to the committee is to check which of them this scheme has. The regulator has set rules on liquidity buffers and on swing pricing for some debt funds; confirm the current framework. The limit of this analysis is the desk's haircut estimates: in a real panic the A-rated paper may have no bid at all, and then the honest choice is between a tilted slice and, in the extreme, restricting redemptions, which the rules allow only in defined circumstances.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is choosing to sell the AAA bonds because it is cheapest today and calling that prudent. The interviewer wants you to see that the cost did not disappear; it was transferred to the investors who stayed, who did not agree to it.

The second is recommending borrowing as a clever way to avoid selling at all. Interest is paid by the stayers, the leavers are gone at full NAV, and if the outflows continue the fund has paid for nothing.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The fund has swing pricing. How does that change the choice between the three approaches?
  • A second Rs 600 crore of redemptions arrives the following week. Walk through what the fund can and cannot do.
  • How would you set the size of the liquid buffer for a credit risk fund in normal times?
  • What would make you recommend restricting redemptions, and what does that do to the AMC's other funds?
← Case 021During a sharp gold rally, an AMC's gold ETF trades 2.1% above its indicative NAV. A client wants to buy Rs 5 lakh through the exchange today. What is the price doing, what does he lose if the premium closes, and what are the alternatives?Case 023 →An AMC has average AUM of Rs 60,000 crore earning a blended 0.55% after distribution costs, and operating costs of Rs 190 crore. What is its operating profit, and what happens to it if markets fall 20%?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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