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039

Case 039Index funds, ETFs and passiveHard

A Rs 6,000 crore index fund must buy a new index entrant at a 2.4% weight on the rebalance date, Rs 144 crore of a stock that trades Rs 90 crore a day, and traders have bought ahead. What does front-running cost investors, and could the fund do anything differently?

1The situation

Agrasar Mutual Fund runs a Rs 6,000 crore index fund. Fifteen trading days ago the index provider announced that a company would join the index at the next rebalance, with a weight of 2.4%. The fund must hold it from the close of rebalance day, so it needs to buy Rs 144 crore. The stock normally trades about Rs 90 crore a day, and all funds and ETFs tracking the same index together need about Rs 1,080 crore.

Since the announcement the stock has risen from 100 to 108 (indexed). From past inclusions, the desk expects about 4% of that rise to reverse within ten days of the rebalance, leaving the stock near 103.68. The fund's expense ratio is 0.20%.

2Your task

What does the run-up cost the fund's investors, why does it not show up in tracking error, and what could the fund do differently?

Quick check

If the fund buys everything at the rebalance close, what is its tracking error from this trade?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Buying at the close costs investors about Rs 5.76 crore, 4% of the purchase or about 10 basis points of the fund, roughly half a year's expense ratio, and it never shows as tracking error because the index pays the same price. Only the part of the run-up that reverses is a cost. The fund can buy earlier or later more cheaply, but each route is a tracking bet. The realistic fixes are a small pre-agreed tracking budget and pressure on index design.

Step 1Why does the price run up before the rebalance?

If everyone knows a large caterer must buy all the mangoes in a market on a fixed date, traders will buy mangoes first and sell them to the caterer at a higher price. Index changes are public and the buying is compulsory, so traders buy the stock after the announcement and sell it to index funds at the rebalance close. Here the fund alone must buy 1.6 days of normal volume, and all trackers together about 12 days. This is legal anticipation of public information, not illegal front-running, which uses knowledge of a client's order before it is placed; keep the two apart in the interview.

Predictable buying invites others to buy first and sell to the fund100104108Announcement to rebalance: traders buy aheadFund buys all Rs 144 crore at 108Settles at 103.684% paid awayAnnounced: 100-15-10-50+5+10Trading days relative to the rebalanceThe run-up that stays (100 to 103.68) is the inclusion effect; only the 4% that reverses is the fund's cost
The entrant rose from 100 at the announcement to 108 at the rebalance close, where the fund bought all Rs 144 crore, and settled near 103.68 ten days later, so about 4% of the purchase price was paid to traders who bought first.
Step 2What does it actually cost, and why is it hidden?

Not all of the run-up is a cost. Inclusion brings permanent buyers and better liquidity, so some of the rise stays; only the part that reverses was paid away. Buying Rs 144 crore at 108 and valuing it at 103.68 ten days later is a loss of about Rs 5.76 crore, which is about 9.6 basis points of the fund. Against a 0.20% expense ratio, one inclusion costs investors about 48% of a year's fees, and none of it appears in tracking error because the index buys at the same price. The cost shows up instead as an index return slightly worse than the stocks' underlying value.

Step 3Could the fund buy more cleverly?

It could change when it buys, but every alternative is a bet. Spreading the purchase over the three days before, at about 106.5, would have overpaid only about Rs 3.81 crore and beaten the index by about Rs 2.03 crore. Waiting and buying over five days after, at about 104.5, would have overpaid only about Rs 1.13 crore. Those savings are hindsight: ex ante the fund is choosing to differ from its index, and if the stock had kept rising it would have lagged by the same mechanism. An index fund is hired to track, not to forecast.

Cheaper execution is paid for in tracking error riskAll at the rebalance closetracking error: noneRs 5.76 crSpread over 3 days beforeholds the stock before the index doesRs 3.81 crSpread over 5 days afterunderweight 2.4% while waitingRs 1.13 crOverpayment against the price ten days after, Rs crore, if the stock follows the same path.Ex ante the price path is unknown: the two cheaper routes are bets the index fund is not paid to take.
Against the price ten days after, buying at the close overpays about Rs 5.76 crore, buying over the three days before about Rs 3.81 crore and buying over five days after about Rs 1.13 crore, but the cheaper routes depend on the price path and expose the fund to tracking error.
Step 4So what would you actually change?

Three things, in order of how much they help. Agree a small, written tracking error budget for index changes, so the dealer can pre-position part of the trade and take liquidity offered by stock-exiting sellers, accepting a measured difference from the index. Use the closing auction and crossing with other funds' sell orders where possible, which cuts market impact even if it cannot remove the run-up. And press the index provider, alongside other passive managers, for designs that blunt the game: longer and less predictable implementation windows, or staged entry over several rebalances. The last helps every tracker and is the only fix that removes the edge rather than sharing it.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is saying the fund has zero tracking error, so there is no problem. Tracking error measures the fund against an index that suffers the same overpayment; the cost is real and lands on every investor in every index fund.

The second miss is counting the whole run-up from 100 to 108 as a cost. Part of the rise is the lasting effect of inclusion; only the part that reverses after the rebalance was paid away.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How does the same problem show up for a stock leaving the index?
  • Would an ETF that creates units in kind suffer this cost differently?
  • How would you design an index rule that makes inclusions less predictable without hurting transparency?
← Case 038A Rs 400 crore fixed maturity plan matures next month, but a Rs 45 crore bond in it has missed a payment and is valued at 25% of face. What do investors receive at maturity, what happens to the unpaid bond, and what should the AMC tell investors now?Case 040 →An AMC runs 38 schemes; 11 have under Rs 200 crore of AUM and 6 of those overlap heavily with a larger sibling. Recommend which to merge, close or promote, and what each choice costs investors and the AMC.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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