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047

Case 047Fund selection and due diligenceWarm up

A client holds four equity funds of Rs 5 lakh each; pairwise overlap by weight runs from 41% to 62%, and together they hold 212 stocks but the top 40 make up 71% of his money. How many funds is he really holding, and what would you consolidate?

1The situation

Arnav Deshmane, 35, holds Rs 5 lakh in each of four equity funds, bought on different recommendations over six years: a large cap fund (A), a flexi cap fund (B), a large and mid cap fund (C) and a value fund (D). He believes four funds from four AMCs make him well diversified.

A portfolio overlap tool shows pairwise overlap by weight: A and B 62%, A and C 55%, A and D 41%, B and C 58%, B and D 47%, C and D 44%. Across the four funds he owns 212 different stocks, but the 40 largest make up 71% of his money.

2Your task

How many funds is he effectively holding, and what would you consolidate to, and how?

Quick check

With average overlap of about 51%, roughly how many independent funds do four funds amount to?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

He is effectively holding about 1.6 funds, not four: average overlap is about 51%, and 40 stocks carry 71% of his money. Keeping only the large cap fund and the value fund, the least overlapping pair at 41%, gives about 1.4 effective funds, nearly the same diversification with half the line items. Consolidate by redirecting new SIPs first and selling the other two gradually, watching exit loads and capital gains tax.

Step 1Why do four funds not give four times the diversification?

Four friends recommending restaurants from the same street have given you one street, not four neighbourhoods. Diversification comes from owning different things, not from owning different fund names, and these four funds largely own the same large companies. Pairwise overlap averages about 51%, and the 212 stocks hide the concentration: the top 40 carry 71% of his money, so the other 172 share the remaining 29%, many of them at weights too small to matter.

Four funds with this much overlap behave like one and a halfA: Large capAB: Flexi capBC: Large and mid capCD: ValueD62%55%41%62%58%47%55%58%44%41%47%44%212 stocks across four fundsTop 40 stocks: 71% of the moneyThe other 172 share 29%Average overlap 51%Effective number of fundsFour funds: about 1.6A and D only: about 1.4n / (1 + (n - 1) x overlap)Red cells: pairs overlapping 58% or more. The diagonal is each fund with itself.
Arnav's four funds overlap between 41% and 62% by weight, about 51% on average, and 40 stocks carry 71% of his money, so the four funds behave like about 1.6 independent funds, while the large cap and value funds alone would give about 1.4.
Step 2How do you put a number on how many funds he holds?

Borrow the effective number of bets from portfolio theory: with n holdings and an average correlation rho between them, they behave like n / (1 + (n - 1) x rho) independent ones. Using overlap as a stand-in for correlation, four funds at about 51% overlap behave like 4 / (1 + 3 x 0.51), about 1.6 funds. The limit of the shortcut is that overlap by weight is not return correlation; diversified equity funds in one market are usually even more correlated than their overlap suggests, so the true figure is likely lower still.

Step 3What would you consolidate to, and how?

Keep the pair that overlaps least. Large cap fund A and value fund D overlap 41%, so together they give 2 / 1.41, about 1.4 effective funds. Two funds deliver almost all of the diversification four were giving, with fewer fees to watch and a portfolio he can actually understand. If he wants a third, add something genuinely different, a mid or small cap fund or an international fund, rather than another diversified fund drawing from the same top 100 stocks.

HoldingFundsAverage overlapEffective funds
All four, as today451%1.58
A and D only241%1.42
A and B only (most overlapping pair)262%1.23
Four funds at about 51% average overlap give about 1.58 effective funds, the least overlapping pair gives 1.42, and the most overlapping pair only 1.23.

Do it without creating new costs. Redirect his SIPs into A and D first. Then sell B and C in stages: check each fund's exit load window, and spread redemptions so that long-term gains use the yearly tax exemption where one applies; confirm the current capital gains rules before advising on timing. The goal is a cleaner portfolio, not a tax bill to get one.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is counting 212 stocks and four AMCs as proof of diversification. The interviewer gave you the top-40 figure to see whether you notice that most of the money sits in a few names.

The second miss is recommending a sale of everything except one fund at once. Consolidation is right, but exit loads and capital gains tax can make a fast clean-up cost more than the overlap ever did.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How would you measure overlap if the tool reported only the number of common stocks, not weights?
  • He adds a small cap fund that overlaps 8% with A. What is the effective number now?
  • When might two overlapping funds still be worth holding?
← Case 046A draft mutual fund advertisement says Our fund returned 42% last year, with no benchmark, no standard periods and no risk statement. Rewrite it within the rules on performance advertising and explain each change.Case 048 →A jeweller holds 180 days of gold inventory, half of it funded by gold metal loans. If gold rises 10%, what happens to its reported margin, its cash flow and its debt, and is the earnings jump worth paying for?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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