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051

Case 051Liquidity, redemptions and stressCore

In Tilottama Mutual Fund's Rs 800 crore corporate bond scheme, the top 10 investors hold 58%, and one treasury holding Rs 150 crore gives notice to exit. The scheme has 11% in liquid assets. What happens to the other investors, and what should the AMC have been monitoring?

1The situation

Tilottama Mutual Fund runs a corporate bond scheme with assets of Rs 800 crore. Most of the money is institutional: the ten largest investors hold Rs 464 crore between them, 58% of the scheme. The largest, the treasury of a listed manufacturer, holds Rs 150 crore and has told the relationship manager it will redeem the whole amount at the end of the week to fund an acquisition.

The scheme holds 11% of its assets, Rs 88 crore, in treasury bills, overnight lending and bank certificates of deposit that can be turned into cash the same day. The rest is AAA and AA corporate bonds of two to five years, some of which trade only a few times a month.

2Your task

What does this one exit do to the investors who stay, how should the fund meet it, and what should the AMC have been watching before the call came?

Quick check

After paying out the Rs 150 crore, who bears the cost of any bonds sold below fair value?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The exit uses up the whole liquid buffer and still needs Rs 62 crore of bond sales, so the investors who stay end up in a scheme with no cash cushion. The direct cost is small, about Rs 31 lakh. The damage is what is left: the next two large holders are 17% of a smaller scheme. The AMC should have sized liquidity to its largest investors and watched concentration every day.

Step 1Why is one investor's exit everybody's problem?

Think of a shared taxi where one passenger is paying most of the fare. When that passenger gets out early, the others either pay more or walk. A mutual fund pays every leaving investor at NAV, so any cost of raising the cash lands on the investors who remain. The treasury leaves with Rs 150 crore at a fair price. Whatever discount the fund takes to sell bonds afterwards comes out of the assets the other investors still own.

Here the redemption is 18.75% of the scheme against a buffer of 11%. The Rs 88 crore of liquid assets covers only 59% of it, so Rs 62 crore of bonds must be sold within the settlement window.

Ten largest investors against the liquid buffer, Rs crore050100150150#160#250#340#435#535#630#725#820#919#10Liquid buffer: Rs 88 crore, 11% of the schemeRs 62 crore of bondsmust be sold to pay #1Buffer covers 88 of the 150Investors ranked by holding; together the ten hold Rs 464 crore, 58% of the scheme
The largest of Tilottama's ten biggest investors holds Rs 150 crore, above the Rs 88 crore liquid buffer, so paying it out needs Rs 62 crore of bond sales on top of every rupee of liquid assets the scheme holds.
Step 2What does it cost the investors who stay?

There are two ways to raise the money. The easy way spends all Rs 88 crore of liquid assets and then sells Rs 62 crore of the most tradeable bonds. At an assumed discount of 0.5% to fair value, that costs about Rs 31 lakh, or 4.8 basis points on the Rs 650 crore left. The explicit cost is small; the real cost is the portfolio left behind, with no liquid assets and the hardest to sell bonds now a larger share.

That matters because the next two investors hold Rs 110 crore, now 16.9% of the scheme. If they follow, there is no buffer, and the fund must sell thinly traded bonds at perhaps 1.5% below fair value: Rs 1.65 crore, 31 basis points on the Rs 540 crore then left. The second wave costs about ten times the first. The better way is a vertical sliceSelling a proportional share of every holding, liquid and illiquid alike, so the remaining portfolio keeps the same mix as before the redemption.: sell about 19% of every holding, including some less liquid bonds, so the investors who stay keep the same mix and the same 11% cushion. It costs a little more today and protects them far better tomorrow.

Step 3What should the AMC have been watching?

Three numbers, every day. First, concentration: the share of the largest single investor and of the top ten. Second, coverage: liquid assets divided by the holding of the largest investor, here 0.59x, when anything under 1.0x means one phone call empties the buffer. Third, a redemption stress test that asks what happens if the top few leave in the same week. SEBI requires debt schemes to run liquidity stress tests and disclose risk measures; confirm the current requirements, but the logic does not depend on the rule. A scheme's liquidity must be sized to its largest investors, not its average one.

MeasureTilottama todayWhat it tells you
Largest investor, % of scheme18.75%One exit bigger than the buffer
Top ten investors, % of scheme58%Behaviour of a few decides liquidity
Liquid assets / largest holding0.59xBelow 1.0x: buffer fails on one exit
Liquid needed to cover the largest18.75%Extra 7.75 points of cash
Tilottama's liquid assets cover only 0.59 times its largest holding; lifting the buffer to 18.75% of the scheme would cover it, at an assumed yield give-up of 1% on the extra cash.

Covering the largest holder is not free. Moving the buffer from 11% to 18.75% at a 1% yield give-up costs about 7.8 basis points a year for every investor. That is the price of insurance against a single phone call, and it is cheap next to a forced sale in a bad week. The other levers are to cap how much any single investor may hold, to talk to large holders about staggering big exits, and to keep the relationship team telling the fund manager about any exit it hears of early.

Where candidates lose it

Most candidates stop at the Rs 62 crore sale and say the cost is small. It is, today. The question is what happens to the investors who stay, and the answer is that they now own a scheme with no liquid cushion and a larger share of hard to sell bonds.

The second miss is saying the AMC can refuse or delay the redemption. An open-ended scheme must pay on time; restrictions on redemption are allowed only in narrow market-wide conditions set by SEBI, not because one investor is large.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Why is selling a vertical slice fairer to the remaining investors than using the liquid assets first?
  • Should an AMC cap the share of a debt scheme any single investor can hold? What would it cost the AMC?
  • How would swing pricing, where it applies, change who bears the cost of this exit?
← Case 050Build a simple DCF: free cash flow of Rs 80 crore next year growing 12% for five years, then 5% forever, discounted at 11.5%, with Rs 150 crore of net debt. What is the equity value, and which assumption moves it most?Case 052 →Nishchint Mutual Fund wants to call a new conservative hybrid fund the Guaranteed Monthly Income Fund because it expects to pay a regular IDCW. What is wrong with the name and the promise, and how would you position the product instead?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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