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054

Case 054NAV operations and operational riskCore

An equity fund holds 2.8% of its NAV in Chandrakala Textiles, whose shares are suspended at a last price of Rs 420 after an audit qualification. The valuation committee can hold at Rs 420, mark down 50%, or use a peer multiple implying Rs 260. What does each do to NAV, and to investors who enter or leave this week?

1The situation

A Rs 2,000 crore equity fund holds Chandrakala Textiles at 2.8% of NAV. Trading in the shares was suspended after the auditor qualified the accounts over unexplained related-party receivables. The last traded price was Rs 420, and nobody knows when trading will resume.

The valuation committee has three proposals: carry the stock at Rs 420 until trading resumes; apply a flat 50% markdown to Rs 210; or value it on the median earnings multiple of listed textile peers, which implies Rs 260, using the last audited earnings. This week the fund expects Rs 40 crore of purchases and Rs 60 crore of redemptions.

2Your task

What does each choice do to NAV, who gains and who loses on this week's flows, and which would you support?

Quick check

If the stock is really worth about Rs 260 and the fund keeps it at Rs 420, who gains?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Holding at Rs 420 overstates NAV by about 1.08% if Rs 260 is fair, paying leavers too much and charging entrants too much. The 50% markdown cuts NAV by 1.40%, understating it and doing the reverse. The peer multiple, -1.07%, is the best documented estimate. Support it, with a further discount for the audit risk if the committee can justify one, reviewed every day.

Step 1Why does a stale price move money between investors?

Imagine a housing society that values each member's share of a common hall at last year's price after the roof has caved in. Anyone who sells their flat this week is paid for a hall that no longer exists; the buyer and the members who stay pay for it. A NAV is the price at which money enters and leaves the fund, so a wrong price is a transfer between investors, not just an accounting error. A suspended stockA share in which the exchange has halted trading, so there is no current market price to value it at. has no market price, which forces a judgement.

Step 2What does each option do to NAV?

The holding is 2.8% of NAV at Rs 420. Holding at Rs 420 changes nothing. A 50% markdown takes the position to 1.4% and NAV down 1.40%. The peer multiple at Rs 260 is a 38.1% cut, so NAV falls 1.07%. The choice looks small at the fund level and is large for anyone transacting this week.

What each valuation does to NAV, and who it moves money betweenChange in NAVHold at last price, Rs 4200.00%Leavers overpaid Rs 64 lakh; entrants lose Rs 43 lakhMark down 50%, Rs 210-1.40%Leavers underpaid Rs 20 lakh; entrants gain Rs 14 lakhPeer multiple, Rs 260-1.07%Best estimate: flows priced fairlyThis week: Rs 40 crore of purchases and Rs 60 crore of redemptions on a Rs 2,000 crore fund.Transfers are measured against Rs 260 as the fair value.
Against a fair value of Rs 260, holding Chandrakala at Rs 420 pays this week's leavers about Rs 64 lakh too much and overcharges entrants about Rs 43 lakh, while the 50% markdown underpays leavers by Rs 20 lakh.

Put rupees on it. If Rs 260 is right, keeping Rs 420 overstates NAV by 1.08%. The Rs 60 crore of redemptions are paid about Rs 64 lakh more than their share, and the Rs 40 crore of purchases get units worth about Rs 43 lakh less than they paid. The 50% markdown understates NAV by 0.34%, and the transfers run the other way: leavers are short-changed by about Rs 20 lakh.

Step 3Which would you support, and how would you defend it?

The peer multiple, because it is the only option built from evidence. SEBI's valuation principles require the AMC to value a non-traded security at fair value in good faith, with a documented method; confirm the current wording, but a last traded price after a suspension for an audit qualification is hard to call fair. A flat 50% is a guess dressed as prudence, and prudence that underpays leavers is still unfair. Holding at Rs 420 invites the fastest-moving investors to redeem at a stale price, the same first-mover advantageThe gain available to investors who leave a fund before a known loss is reflected in its price, paid for by those who stay. that turns a small problem into a run.

Two cautions keep the answer honest. The peer multiple uses earnings the auditor has just questioned, so the committee may justify a further discount for that risk and must record why. And the value must be reviewed every day, with the reasoning minuted, because new facts, such as a forensic audit or a resumption date, should move the price immediately.

Where candidates lose it

The common answer is that a markdown is always the conservative choice. Conservative for whom? An understated NAV underpays every investor who redeems while it lasts, which is as unfair as overpaying them.

The second miss is treating the Rs 420 as a price. After a suspension for an audit qualification it is a record of the past, and holding it is itself a valuation decision the committee must defend.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Trading resumes after a month and the stock opens at Rs 180. What should the committee review?
  • Should the fund consider segregating the holding into a separate portfolio? What conditions would that need?
  • How would you value the stock if there were no listed textile peers?
← Case 053A corporate bond fund holds Rs 90 crore of Hemavrat Cables bonds (3% of NAV) with an interest cover covenant of 2.0x; the latest results show 1.7x. The bondholders can accelerate, waive for a fee, or reprice. What do you recommend, and what does each path do to the fund?Case 055 →Rohini Bhagwat, 55, has Rs 1.1 crore, 85% in equity, and retires at 60. Draw her de-risking schedule and show what a 35% equity fall at 59 does to her corpus with and without the glide path.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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