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076

Case 076AMC and distribution economicsWarm up

Two fund houses each manage Rs 1 lakh crore. One is 70% debt, the other 70% equity. Compare their revenue, and show what a 20% fall in equity markets does to each.

1The situation

Kanakvalli Asset Management and a rival fund house each manage Rs 1,00,000 crore. Kanakvalli's book is 70% debt and 30% equity; the rival's is the mirror image, 30% debt and 70% equity. What the fund house keeps as revenue, after paying distributors out of the expense ratio, is its fee yield: assume 0.25% a year on debt assets and 0.85% on equity assets for both.

For the second half of the question, assume equity markets fall 20% and debt assets are unchanged, with no flows in or out. Assume operating costs of Rs 200 crore a year for Kanakvalli and Rs 300 crore for the rival, which runs a larger equity research team; both are fixed in the short run.

2Your task

What revenue does each fund house earn, what does a 20% equity fall do to revenue and profit, and what does that tell you about the two businesses?

Quick check

After a 20% equity fall, whose revenue falls more in percentage terms?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The rival earns Rs 670 crore against Kanakvalli's Rs 430 crore, and loses more when equity falls. Equity pays over three times the fee of debt, so the equity-heavy book earns 56% more on the same assets. A 20% equity fall cuts the rival's revenue by 17.8% and Kanakvalli's by 11.9%, and with fixed costs the profit falls are larger still: 32% against 22%. Equity-heavy fund houses earn more and swing more.

Step 1Why does the same Rs 1 lakh crore earn such different revenue?

Because assets under management are not the product; the fee on them is. Think of two shops with the same floor space, one selling rice and one selling electronics: the footfall can be identical and the takings very different. An equity rupee pays the fund house 0.85% a year and a debt rupee 0.25%, so an equity rupee is worth 3.4 debt rupees of revenue. Kanakvalli's fee yieldRevenue the fund house keeps divided by its average assets under management, after paying distributors their share of the expense ratio. works out to 0.43% and the rival's to 0.67%. Debt funds charge less because debt investors, many of them corporate treasuries, compare every basis point, and because a bond portfolio needs less research per rupee than a stock portfolio.

Rs crore a yearKanakvalliRival
Debt assets70,00030,000
Equity assets30,00070,000
Debt revenue at 0.25%17575
Equity revenue at 0.85%255595
Revenue430670
Fee yield on all assets0.43%0.67%
On identical assets of Rs 1,00,000 crore, Kanakvalli earns Rs 430 crore, a fee yield of 0.43%, and the equity-heavy rival earns Rs 670 crore, a fee yield of 0.67%.
Step 2What does a 20% equity fall do to each?

Only the equity line moves, so each fund house loses 20% of its equity revenue. Kanakvalli loses Rs 51 crore, 11.9% of revenue; the rival loses Rs 119 crore, 17.8%. The quick check: revenue falls by the market fall times equity's share of revenue. Equity is 89% of the rival's revenue, so 20% of 89% is about 17.8%. For Kanakvalli, equity is 59% of revenue, not 30%, because equity earns more per rupee than debt, so the hit is 11.9%, not 6%.

Same Rs 1 lakh crore of assets, very different revenue, and a different fallKanakvalli, before70% debt, 30% equity175255430Kanakvalli, afterequity down 20%175204-51379Rival, before30% debt, 70% equity75595670Rival, afterequity down 20%75476-119551debt fees at 0.25%equity fees at 0.85%revenue lost in the fall
A 20% equity fall cuts Kanakvalli's revenue from Rs 430 crore to Rs 379 crore, down 11.9%, and the rival's from Rs 670 crore to Rs 551 crore, down 17.8%, because equity fees make up most of the rival's revenue.
Step 3Why is the profit fall bigger than the revenue fall?

Salaries, offices and technology do not shrink because the market did. With fixed costs, the rival's profit falls from Rs 370 crore to Rs 251 crore, 32%, and Kanakvalli's from Rs 230 crore to Rs 179 crore, 22%. This is operating leverageWhen a large share of costs is fixed, a given change in revenue produces a larger percentage change in profit., and it runs both ways: in a rising market the rival's profit rises fastest too.

Fixed costs turn a revenue dip into a bigger profit dipKanakvalli profit, before230after the fall179 (-22%)Rival profit, before370after the fall251 (-32%)Rs crore. Costs assumed fixed in the short run: Kanakvalli 200, rival 300.
With costs held at Rs 200 crore and Rs 300 crore, Kanakvalli's profit falls 22% and the rival's 32% after the same 20% equity fall, so the equity-heavy house carries more earnings risk.

Say the limit of the arithmetic before you close. It assumes no flows. In a real fall, equity investors pause SIPs and redeem, so equity assets usually fall by more than the market, and the rival's hit grows. Debt books have their own flow risk: treasury money leaves liquid funds at quarter ends and in credit scares. Close with the view the interviewer wants: the rival is the higher-quality revenue stream in a good market and the more cyclical one in a bad market, and anyone valuing a fund house should look at the asset mix before the asset total.

Where candidates lose it

The common slip is ranking the two fund houses by assets under management and calling them equal. Size is the same; the business is not, because revenue depends on the mix and the fee on each part of it.

The second is saying Kanakvalli's revenue falls 6%, 20% of its 30% equity share of assets. Equity is 59% of Kanakvalli's revenue, not 30%, so the fall is 11.9%. Always weight by revenue, not by assets.

What the interviewer asks next

  • If equity fees were cut from 0.85% to 0.75% across the industry, which fund house loses more revenue, in rupees and in percentage terms?
  • How would net outflows of 5% of equity assets during the fall change each answer?
  • Why might a buyer of fund house shares still pay a higher multiple of earnings for the rival?
← Case 075Pitch Bhandarika Logistics, a warehousing company with 18 million sq ft, 91% occupancy, 5% annual rent escalation and a 12% yield on new capex. Is its growth funded by debt or by cash flow, and what is the pitch?Case 077 →A value fund has lagged its benchmark by 4% a year for three years, but its downside capture is 70% and upside capture 85%. A platform wants to drop it. When would it be expected to win, and would you keep it?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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