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030

Case 030Company analysis and valuationWarm up

Three unlabelled companies: X has an 85% gross margin and spends 20% of revenue on research; Y has a 22% gross margin and 90 days of inventory; Z has a 55% EBITDA margin, depreciation at 20% of revenue and heavy interest. Which industries are they in?

T. Rowe PriceBaltimore · 2022

1The situation

The interviewer slides across three short income statements, each scaled to Rs 100 of revenue, with the names removed.

Company X: cost of sales 15, research and development 20, selling and administration 40, EBITDA 25. Company Y: cost of sales 78, selling and administration 13, EBITDA 9, and inventory equal to 90 days of cost of sales. Company Z: operating costs 45, so EBITDA of 55; depreciation 20, interest 22 and pre-tax profit 13.

2Your task

Name a likely industry for each company, the one or two lines that decide it, and the runner-up you would test next.

Quick check

Which line tells you most about Company Z?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

X reads as software, Y as a consumer durables maker, and Z as an infrastructure owner such as a telecom tower company. X's product costs almost nothing to deliver and its spending goes on research. Y makes or buys physical goods on thin margins and carries a season of stock. Z earns a high margin from a large, debt-funded asset base that depreciates slowly, which is how towers, toll roads and power lines look.

Step 1Which line should you read first on each statement?

Read each statement for its unusual line, the one that would look odd in most businesses. A doctor does the same with blood tests: most numbers are normal, and one out-of-range reading narrows the diagnosis. Gross margin tells you what the product costs to make, and the biggest line below it tells you where the business spends to stay alive: research, stock or fixed assets.

Where each Rs 100 of revenue goes: the lime line gives the business awayCompany X85% gross margin,20% on research15Cost of sales20Research40Selling and admin25EBITDAReads as: softwareCompany Y22% gross margin,90 days of stock78Cost of sales13Selling and admin9EBITDAReads as: durables makerCompany Z55% EBITDA margin,big depreciation, interest45Operating costs20Depreciation22Interest13Pre-tax profitReads as: infrastructure
Company X spends 20 of every 100 on research against a cost of sales of only 15, Company Y spends 78 on cost of sales and carries 90 days of stock, and Company Z pays 42 of every 100 in depreciation and interest, three different ways of running a business.
Step 2Why is X software and not a drug company?

Both fit an 85% gross margin with heavy research. The tie-breaker is selling and administration at 40% of revenue: software companies spend more on selling than on research, while drug companies spend more on research and hold inventory. You would confirm with the balance sheet: deferred revenue from customers paying upfront points to software, while stock of finished drugs and research partly capitalised points to pharmaceuticals. Commit to software, and name the test.

Step 3What does 90 days of inventory say about Y?

A 22% gross margin means Y adds little to what it buys, so it makes or assembles physical goods. Ninety days of stock is three months of cost of sales, about 19 rupees for every 100 of annual revenue sitting in warehouses. That fits a consumer durables maker building stock ahead of a season, such as air conditioners before summer. A grocer turns stock in weeks; a jeweller holds it for many months and would show far more than 90 days. The next line to ask for is receivable days: long credit to dealers confirms durables.

Step 4What makes Z look like infrastructure?

Depreciation of 20 on 100 of revenue implies a big asset base. If the assets last about 20 years, depreciation of 20 means roughly 400 of fixed assets per 100 of revenue, an asset turnover of only 0.25, and interest of 22 says most of it was borrowed. The 55% EBITDA margin is what lets the business carry that debt. Telecom towers, toll roads and power transmission all look like this. The runner-up is a hotel owner, but hotels rarely reach a 55% margin; a contract term or a tenancy ratio, if the interviewer has one, would settle it.

CompanyTell-tale lineBest guessRunner-up, and the test
XResearch 20 against cost of sales 15SoftwareDrug maker: check inventory and deferred revenue
YCost of sales 78, 90 days of stockConsumer durables makerDistributor: margin would be thinner, near 10
ZDepreciation 20 and interest 22Tower or road ownerHotel owner: margin rarely 55%
Each guess rests on one or two unusual lines and comes with a runner-up and the single number that would separate them, which is how an interviewer wants the answer framed.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates read the margin line on each statement and stop, which cannot separate software from an exchange or a tower company. The margin narrows the field; the cost line underneath it names the business.

The other loss is refusing to commit because two industries fit. Pick one, then give the test that would change your mind: that is a stronger answer than a list of possibilities.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Company Z's revenue rises 10% with no new assets. What happens to its pre-tax profit, and why?
  • What would a bank's statement look like on these same lines, and why is gross margin meaningless for it?
  • Which of the three would you expect to trade on EV to EBITDA, and which on price to earnings?

Asked at T. Rowe Price, Investments, Baltimore, 2022 (Wall Street Oasis): Guess what type of company it is based on a few lines of income statement

← Case 029A long-short fund is long Rs 100 crore of stocks with a beta of 1.3 and shorts a basket with a beta of 0.9. How large must the short be for beta neutrality, and what net money exposure results?Case 031 →A family trust holds 10% of Rs 50 crore in gold. If real yields rise 1 point and gold falls an assumed 12% per point, what does the trust lose, and what role should gold play?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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