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043

Case 043Company analysis and valuationCore

How would you take a university public? It has 12,000 students paying Rs 3 lakh a year at a 30% operating margin. Using a sector EV to EBITDA of 18 times, set the valuation, the split between new and existing shares, and the price per share.

WMWellington ManagementBoston · 2024

1The situation

Vidyavan University runs one campus near Pune with 12,000 students, each paying fees of Rs 3 lakh a year, and earns a 30% EBITDA margin. Its operating company has Rs 64 crore of net debt and 20 crore shares, 70% held by the founding family and 30% by a private equity fund that wants a partial exit.

The founders want to build a second campus costing Rs 240 crore. Listed education companies trade at about 18 times EV to EBITDA. The interviewer asks how you would take the university public.

2Your task

What is the business worth, at what price should shares be offered, and how should the issue be split between new shares and shares sold by existing holders?

Quick check

What enterprise value does 18 times EBITDA give?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

On 18 times EBITDA of Rs 108 crore, Vidyavan is worth about Rs 1,944 crore, or Rs 1,880 crore of equity, Rs 94 a share; offer it at about Rs 80, a 15% discount. Issue Rs 240 crore of new shares to fund the campus and let the private equity fund sell Rs 260 crore, a 27% public float. First confirm the university can legally sit inside a listed company.

Step 1Can a university be listed at all?

Start with the question most candidates skip, because it decides the structure. In many places, India included, a degree-granting institution must be run by a not-for-profit trust or society, so investors cannot simply own the university. Listed education groups usually own a company that holds the campus and provides services, such as buildings, technology and management, to the institution under a long-term contract, and earn fees for it. Confirm the current rules with counsel before anything else. Then the usual listing tests: audited accounts for several years, independent directors, and related-party dealings with the founding family cleaned up.

Step 2What is the business worth?

A family deciding what to charge for its house starts with what similar houses fetch, then adjusts for the leaking roof. Fees are 12,000 x Rs 3 lakh, Rs 360 crore; at a 30% margin EBITDA is Rs 108 crore; 18 times that is Rs 1,944 crore of enterprise value, and after Rs 64 crore of net debt, Rs 1,880 crore of equity, Rs 94 a share. Then test the multiple. That is Rs 16 lakh of value per seat, so a peer at 18 times must have similar growth. One campus has a ceiling: growth comes from fee increases, which regulators may cap, and from new campuses, which need capital. A single-campus university deserves to sit at or below the peer multiple, not above it.

From fees to a share price: value the cash flow, then discount to sellFee revenueRs 360 cr12,000 x Rs 3 lakhEBITDARs 108 cr30% marginEnterprise valueRs 1,944 cr18x EBITDAEquity valueRs 1,880 crless net debt 64Offer valueRs 1,600 cr15% IPO discountPrice a shareRs 8020 crore sharesHow the issue is built at Rs 80 a shareFresh issue Rs 240 cr3.0 crore new shares, cash to the campusOffer for sale Rs 260 cr3.25 crore shares sold by the PE fundShares after listing: 20 + 3 = 23 crore; market value at the offer Rs 1,840 crorePublic float: (3 + 3.25) / 23 = 27.2%; founders keep 60.9%, the PE fund 12.0%If the shares later trade at fair value, about Rs 92, IPO buyers gain about 15%
Vidyavan's Rs 360 crore of fees become Rs 108 crore of EBITDA, Rs 1,944 crore of enterprise value at 18 times and Rs 1,880 crore of equity; a 15% IPO discount sets the offer at Rs 80 a share, split between a Rs 240 crore fresh issue and a Rs 260 crore offer for sale.
Step 3Why offer below fair value, and at what price?

New listings are usually priced below where the bankers think they will trade, because buyers are taking a chance on a company with no trading record. A discount of about 15% takes Rs 94 to about Rs 80 a share, an offer value of Rs 1,600 crore before the new money. The discount is a cost to the sellers: if the shares later trade at fair value, about Rs 92 after the new cash arrives, buyers make about 15% and the private equity fund has sold its shares that much too cheap. The bookbuild, where large investors bid, sets the final price inside a band.

Step 4How do you split new shares and shares sold?

Match each part to a purpose. The fresh issue raises exactly what the second campus needs, Rs 240 crore, 3 crore new shares at Rs 80; the offer for sale lets the private equity fund sell Rs 260 crore, 3.25 crore of its 6 crore shares. After listing there are 23 crore shares, worth Rs 1,840 crore at the offer price, and 27.2% are in public hands. Check that float against the current minimum public shareholding rule. Investors read the split as a signal: an issue that is mostly shares sold by insiders tells them the owners are cashing out, while new money tied to a visible campus plan tells them the owners are building.

HolderShares before, croreShares after, croreStake after
Founding family14.014.060.9%
Private equity fund6.02.7512.0%
New public investors0.06.2527.2%
Total20.023.0100.0%
After the issue the founding family holds 60.9% of Vidyavan, the private equity fund 12.0% and new public investors 27.2%, of which 3 crore shares are newly issued and 3.25 crore are sold by the fund.

Close with the risks an investor would price. Enrolment and fee regulation are the two numbers that move this valuation, so the prospectus must show utilisation, fee history and any cap. A second campus that fills slowly would dilute margins for years, and a dispute with the trust that runs the university would threaten the service contract that all the value rests on.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is going straight to the multiple. The interviewer is testing whether you know that a university is often not a company at all, and that the listed vehicle and its contract with the institution are where the risk sits.

The second is applying 18 times to revenue, or stopping at enterprise value and dividing by the share count without taking off the net debt and without the IPO discount that every new issue carries.

What the interviewer asks next

  • What would justify a multiple above the peer average for this university?
  • How would you value the second campus before it has students?
  • Why might the private equity fund prefer a later, larger sale instead of this offer for sale?

Asked at Wellington Management, Equity Research, Boston, 2024 (Wall Street Oasis): How would you IPO your school?

← Case 042A multi-factor fund combines a value sleeve and a momentum sleeve, each with an information ratio of 0.4, at equal risk. What is the combined information ratio if their active returns correlate minus 0.5, and if they correlate plus 0.3?Case 044 →The rupee falls 8%. A global allocation fund has Rs 1,000 crore: 25% unhedged US equity, 20% domestic IT exporters whose earnings rise 6% for an 8% fall, 15% oil-importing sectors that fall 5%, and 40% domestic bonds. Estimate the net effect.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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