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046

Case 046Risk management and limit breachesHard

A small cap fund has Rs 3,000 crore in 60 stocks averaging Rs 6 crore of daily volume. If a quarter of the fund is redeemed in a month and it trades 20% of daily volume, how many days does a pro rata sale take, and who bears the cost if it sells the liquid names first?

1The situation

Uddhav Small Cap Fund manages Rs 3,000 crore in 60 stocks. Its holdings fall into six groups of ten stocks: from the most liquid, where it holds Rs 70 crore of each stock and the stock trades Rs 15 crore a day, to the least liquid, where it holds Rs 35 crore of each and the stock trades Rs 1 crore a day. Across all 60 stocks, average daily volume is Rs 6 crore.

After a sharp fall in small caps the risk team models redemptions of a quarter of the fund, Rs 750 crore, within a month of 21 trading days. To limit market impact the desk will trade no more than 20% of any stock's daily volume. Trading costs, spread plus impact, are assumed at 0.3% for the most liquid group rising to 2.5% for the least liquid.

2Your task

How many days does a pro rata sale take, what does the average hide, and who bears the cost if the fund meets the redemptions by selling its liquid names first? Confirm the current regulatory stress-test framework.

Quick check

Selling 25% of every holding pro rata, how long does the slowest group take?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

On averages a pro rata sale takes about 10 days, but the least liquid tenth of the portfolio needs about 44 days, so the redemption cannot be met pro rata within a month. Selling the liquid names first meets it in about 19 days and cuts today's trading cost from Rs 7.8 crore to Rs 2.9 crore, but the investors who stay inherit a fund that is 33% thin stocks instead of 25%. They bear the deferred cost.

Step 1What does the average-based answer say?

Start where the interviewer expects. The average holding is Rs 3,000 / 60 = Rs 50 crore, a quarter of it is Rs 12.5 crore, and 20% of Rs 6 crore of volume is Rs 1.2 crore a day. Rs 12.5 crore at Rs 1.2 crore a day is about 10.4 days, and the whole Rs 750 crore over the fund's total selling capacity of Rs 72 crore a day gives the same 10.4. That is the number a slide would show, and it is wrong in the way that matters.

The relationship
daysi=0.25×holdingi0.20×ADVileast liquid: 0.25×350.20×1.0=43.75\text{days}_i = \frac{0.25 \times \text{holding}_i}{0.20 \times \text{ADV}_i} \qquad \text{least liquid: } \frac{0.25 \times 35}{0.20 \times 1.0} = 43.75
holdingthe fund's position in stock i, Rs crore
ADVaverage daily traded value of stock i, Rs crore
0.20the most of each day's volume the desk will trade
What it says in wordsDays to sell are worked stock by stock, and a pro rata sale finishes only when the slowest stock is done.
Step 2What does the average hide?

A queue at a bank moves at the speed of the slowest counter if every customer must visit every counter. A pro rata sale is that queue: it is finished only when each stock has sold its quarter, so the slowest stock sets the time, not the average. Liquidity is skewed in small caps: here the most liquid group needs 5.8 days, but the thin group needs 16, the very thin 33 and the least liquid 44. 20 of the 60 stocks cannot be sold pro rata within the month without trading far more than 20% of their volume, which would move their prices against the fund.

The average says 10 days; the thinnest stocks need six weeks or more1020304005.8Most liquidADV Rs 15 cr8.3LiquidADV Rs 9 cr10.4MiddleADV Rs 6 cr16.1ThinADV Rs 3.5 cr33.3Very thinADV Rs 1.5 cr43.8Least liquidADV Rs 1 craverage answer 10.4 daysone month: 21 trading daysdaysEach group is ten stocks; selling 25% of every holding at 20% of its daily volume
Selling a quarter of each holding at 20% of daily volume takes 5.8 days in the most liquid group but 33 and 44 days in the two thinnest groups, far beyond both the 10.4-day average answer and the 21 trading days of a month.
Step 3Who pays if the fund sells its liquid names first?

The tempting fix is to meet the redemptions from the two liquid groups, selling 58% of each of those holdings. That finishes in about 19 days and costs about Rs 2.9 crore instead of Rs 7.8 crore, but the saving is borrowed from the investors who stay. The thin stocks, untouched, rise from 25% of the fund to 33% of the Rs 2,250 crore that remains, and the average cost of selling the remaining portfolio rises from 1.04% to 1.26% of its value. If redemptions continue, the next investors out face a fund that is harder and dearer to sell, and those who never leave carry the thin stocks into the next fall. Knowing that early leavers get the better deal is exactly what encourages a run.

Selling liquid names first leaves the hard part to those who stayliquid two groupsmiddle two groupsthin two groupsToday43%32%25%Rs 3,000 crAfter a pro rata sale43%32%25%Rs 2,250 crAfter selling liquid first24%42%33%Rs 2,250 crThin share of what remains: 25% after a pro rata sale, 33% after selling liquid names first
A pro rata sale leaves the Rs 2,250 crore that remains with the same mix as today, 25% thin stocks, while meeting the redemption from liquid names first leaves 33% of the remaining fund in the two thinnest groups.
ApproachDays to raise Rs 750 croreTrading cost now, Rs croreThin share leftCost to sell the rest
Pro rata43.87.8125%1.04%
Liquid names first19.22.9433%1.26%
Selling liquid names first raises the money about 25 days sooner and saves about Rs 4.9 crore today, while raising the share of thin stocks left to remaining investors from 25% to 33%.
Step 4What should the fund actually do?

Act before the redemptions, not during them. Size positions so that every holding can be sold pro rata within the redemption window the fund is prepared to face, which here means holding the thinnest names at well under half their current size or not at all. Keep a cash and large-cap buffer for the first wave, use any tools the rules allow for slowing large outflows, and report a pro rata days-to-liquidate figure, not an average. In India, small and mid cap funds now publish stress-test results showing how long it would take to sell a quarter and a half of the portfolio pro rata; confirm the current method, volume assumptions and disclosure rules before quoting them. Say the limitation too: volumes dry up in exactly the falls that trigger redemptions, so 20% of normal volume may be optimistic.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is dividing total assets by total volume and answering ten days. Liquidity does not average: a pro rata sale waits for the slowest stock, and in a small cap fund the slowest stock is very slow.

The second is calling liquid-first selling efficient because today's trading bill is lower. It moves cost from the investors leaving to the investors staying, which is a fairness problem a fund manager must name, not an optimisation.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How would your answer change if volumes halve during the sell-off?
  • What position size limit would let every stock be sold pro rata within 21 days?
  • How does swing pricing shift the cost of redemptions onto the investors leaving?
← Case 045A client holds Rs 15 crore of her Rs 18 crore net worth in her employer's shares, a stock with 45% volatility. Compare her portfolio volatility and the chance of a 50% wealth loss before and after diversifying, and lay out a staged three-year selling plan.Case 047 →A star manager has beaten the benchmark by 4% a year for seven years with 6.7% tracking error. After adjusting for size and momentum, alpha is 1.3% with 6.5% residual risk. Is it skill, and do you keep, cut or replace the fund?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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