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067

Case 067Risk management and limit breachesCore

A long-short fund runs 150% long and 50% short on Rs 400 crore of NAV. Its shorts are squeezed up 40% while its longs fall 5%. What does NAV lose, and what does that say about gross exposure?

1The situation

Prachand Opportunities Fund has Rs 400 crore of NAV. It holds Rs 600 crore of long positions, 150% of NAV, and Rs 200 crore of short positions, 50% of NAV, so its net exposure is 100% and its gross exposure 200%. The shorts are concentrated in a handful of heavily shorted small caps.

In one violent week, a wave of buying forces short sellers across the market to cover. Prachand's shorts rise 40% on average. Its longs, mostly higher-quality names that other funds sell to raise cash, fall 5%.

2Your task

How much NAV does the fund lose, what do its exposures look like afterwards, and what does the episode say about gross exposure as a risk measure?

Quick check

Net exposure is 100%, like a long-only fund. What does Prachand lose in the squeeze?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

NAV falls by Rs 110 crore, 27.5%, although net exposure was only 100%. The longs lose Rs 30 crore and the shorts Rs 80 crore. A long-only fund would have lost 5% on the same day. When longs and shorts both move against the fund, gross exposure, not net, sets the damage; afterwards the book is 293% gross on a smaller NAV, and trimming the shorts means buying at squeezed prices.

Step 1What does NAV lose, line by line?

Take each side separately. Longs: Rs 600 crore falls 5%, a loss of Rs 30 crore. Shorts: the fund sold Rs 200 crore of stock it does not own, and that stock is now worth Rs 280 crore, so buying it back costs Rs 80 crore more than the fund received. Together the fund loses Rs 110 crore, 27.5% of NAV, more than five times what a long-only fund with the same net exposure would lose. Notice that the short side, only a third of the gross book, did almost three quarters of the damage, because a short loses more the further a price rises, with no ceiling.

Both sides lose at once: a squeeze hits a 200% gross book twice400NAV before-30Longs, Rs 600crore, fall 5%-80Shorts, Rs 200crore, rise 40%290NAV afterSame day, other booksLong-only 100%-5.0%130/30-18.5%150/50-27.5%All three have netexposure of 100%.Rs crore
Prachand's NAV falls from Rs 400 crore to Rs 290 crore: Rs 30 crore from longs falling 5% and Rs 80 crore from shorts rising 40%, a 27.5% loss against 5.0% for a long-only fund and 18.5% for a 130/30 fund.
Step 2Why did net exposure fail as a risk measure here?

Net exposure assumes the longs and shorts offset each other: when the market falls, the longs lose and the shorts gain. Think of a trader who owns an umbrella shop and bets against a raincoat shop across the road: if it rains, one gains and the other loses. A squeeze breaks that assumption: the fund's longs fall and its shorts rise in the same week, so both sides lose, and gross exposure, the sum of the two, measures the money at risk. CrowdingWhen many funds hold the same positions, so they are forced to buy or sell together and move prices against themselves. makes it worse: the shorts were popular with other funds, so everyone covered at once, and the longs were the liquid names everyone sold to raise cash.

Step 3What does the book look like afterwards?

Worse than before. Longs are now Rs 570 crore and shorts Rs 280 crore, on NAV of Rs 290 crore. That is 197% long and 97% short, 293% gross, so the fund is now far more levered than it chose to be, with the shorts almost doubled as a share of NAV. The prime broker is likely to demand more margin. Getting back to 50% short means buying back about Rs 135 crore of stock that has just risen 40%, which can push those prices higher still.

After the squeeze, the book is bigger relative to a smaller NAVBeforeNAV Rs 400 crorelong 150%short 50%gross 200%, net 100%AfterNAV Rs 290 crorelong 197%short 97%gross 293%, net 100%To get back to 50% short, the fund must buy back about Rs 135 crore of shorts, at squeezed prices.
The squeeze leaves Prachand 197% long and 97% short on a Rs 290 crore NAV, 293% gross against 200% before, so the fund must buy back about Rs 135 crore of shorts at squeezed prices to restore its target.
Step 4What limits would have helped?

Four, each aimed at the mechanism. A gross exposure limit, not just a net one. A cap on any single short, because losses on a short are unbounded. A crowding check: short interest in each name and the number of days the market would need to cover it. And a stress test that moves longs and shorts against the fund together, not in the usual offsetting way. The lesson for the interview: net exposure tells you your market bet; gross exposure tells you how much you can lose when your hedges stop hedging. The limitation is that a 40% move across a whole short book is extreme; it happens when shorts are concentrated and crowded, which is exactly what the limits are there to prevent.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is answering 5% because net exposure is 100%, the same as a long-only fund. That treats the short book as a hedge in a scenario where it is the main source of loss.

The second is forgetting the second-round effect: after the loss, the same positions are a bigger share of a smaller NAV, and restoring the target means buying back shorts at the worst prices.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How would you size individual shorts so that no single squeeze costs more than 1% of NAV?
  • What data would warn you that a short is crowded?
  • Would you rather hedge the long book with index futures than single-stock shorts? What do you give up?
← Case 066Market weights of 70% large caps and 30% mid caps imply mid caps beat large caps by 1% a year. An analyst's view says 3%, held with the same confidence as the market prior. What blended spread results, and which way do the weights move?Case 068 →A couple's Rs 4 crore portfolio has drifted to 75/25 against a 60/40 target after a rally. Compare selling equity now, with tax as a framework to confirm, against sending Rs 2 lakh a month of new savings to debt. How long does the second route take?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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