Case 004LBO modelling testsHard
In a telecom and media LBO, tax depreciation runs ahead of book depreciation. Build book tax against cash tax, the deferred tax liability over three years, and show what it does to free cash flow and returns.
1The situation
A sponsor buys Nakshatra Broadband, a regional fibre operator, at 8x EBITDA of Rs 250 crore, Rs 2,000 crore, with Rs 1,000 crore of debt at 8% and Rs 1,000 crore of equity. EBITDA grows to Rs 270 crore and Rs 290 crore over the next two years. Capex is Rs 120 crore a year.
In the accounts, depreciation is Rs 100 crore a year. For tax, the network qualifies for faster write-offs and depreciation is Rs 160 crore a year. Tax is 25%. Interest is on the opening debt, all free cash flow repays debt, and the sponsor exits after three years at 8x. Take the tax rules as stated in the case; real rules on depreciation rates should be checked for the asset and year.
2Your task
Show book tax against cash tax and the deferred tax liability each year. What does modelling the right tax do to free cash flow and returns, and what might a buyer do about the liability at exit?
Quick check
Which tax figure belongs in the free cash flow line of the LBO?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
Cash tax runs Rs 15 crore a year below book tax, so free cash flow is Rs 15 crore higher and a deferred tax liability of Rs 45 crore builds over three years. Modelled on cash tax, exit equity is Rs 1,517 crore, 1.52x and 14.9% IRR, against 13.7% on book tax. If the buyer treats the liability as debt, most of that gain goes back.
Step 1Why are there two tax numbers at all?
Because the accounts and the tax return depreciate the same network at different speeds. Think of a phone you expect to use for five years: you might mentally spread its cost evenly, but a scheme that let you claim most of it in year one would put cash in your pocket now. Tax depreciation of Rs 160 crore against book depreciation of Rs 100 crore lowers taxable profit by Rs 60 crore, and at 25% that is Rs 15 crore of tax paid later rather than now. The accounts still show the full book tax, and record the unpaid part as a deferred tax liabilityTax that the accounts say has been incurred but that the tax return has not yet required, because tax deductions ran ahead of accounting expenses. It reverses when they fall behind..
| Year | EBITDA | Interest | Book tax | Cash tax | Free cash flow | Debt at year end | DTL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 250 | 80.0 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 47.5 | 952.5 | 15 |
| 2 | 270 | 76.2 | 23.4 | 8.4 | 65.4 | 887.1 | 30 |
| 3 | 290 | 71.0 | 29.8 | 14.8 | 84.3 | 802.9 | 45 |
Step 2What does it do to free cash flow and returns?
Year 1 shows it most simply. Interest is 8% of Rs 1,000 crore, Rs 80 crore. Book profit before tax is 250 less 100 less 80, Rs 70 crore, so book tax is Rs 17.5 crore; taxable profit is 250 less 160 less 80, Rs 10 crore, so cash tax is Rs 2.5 crore. Free cash flow is 250 less 2.5 less 80 less 120, Rs 47.5 crore, not the Rs 32.5 crore a book-tax model shows. Every year the extra Rs 15 crore repays debt, which then saves interest, so the gap in debt widens slightly to Rs 47.8 crore by exit.
| 8 x 290 | exit enterprise value, Rs 2,320 crore |
| 802.9 | debt left after three years of cash-tax free cash flow |
| 1,000 | equity invested at entry |
Step 3Is the deferred tax liability debt?
It depends on whether it will reverse. Faster tax depreciation does not reduce total tax; it moves it. When the network's tax depreciation runs out and book depreciation continues, cash tax rises above book tax and the liability is paid. A buyer who expects that soon will argue the Rs 45 crore is debt-like and cut the price. But Nakshatra spends Rs 120 crore a year, more than its book depreciation; while the network keeps growing, new assets keep generating fresh accelerated deductions and the liability may never fall. That is the argument the seller makes.
So the close for an interviewer: model cash tax, show the liability, and state your exit assumption. Here the timing is worth about one point of IRR, 14.9% against 13.7%, and whether you keep it depends on the next owner's capex plan.
Where candidates lose it
The usual loss is pulling book tax from the income statement into the cash flow line. In a capital-heavy business with accelerated tax depreciation that understates cash every year, and the error compounds through the debt schedule.
The second miss is calling the deferred tax liability free money. It is a timing difference: it reverses when tax depreciation falls behind book, and a buyer can price it as debt at exit.
What the interviewer asks next
- Capex falls to Rs 60 crore from year 4. What happens to cash tax and to the liability?
- How would a deferred tax asset from past losses enter the model?
- Should interest deductibility limits change this LBO, and how would you check the current rule?
Asked at TPG, Investments, Beijing, 2018 (Wall Street Oasis): One asked me how to deal with the deferred tax assets/liabilities. The other asked me to go through the LBO Model for the TMT industry.
Company names and figures are illustrative.
