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004

Case 004LBO modelling testsHard

In a telecom and media LBO, tax depreciation runs ahead of book depreciation. Build book tax against cash tax, the deferred tax liability over three years, and show what it does to free cash flow and returns.

TPTPGBeijing · 2018

1The situation

A sponsor buys Nakshatra Broadband, a regional fibre operator, at 8x EBITDA of Rs 250 crore, Rs 2,000 crore, with Rs 1,000 crore of debt at 8% and Rs 1,000 crore of equity. EBITDA grows to Rs 270 crore and Rs 290 crore over the next two years. Capex is Rs 120 crore a year.

In the accounts, depreciation is Rs 100 crore a year. For tax, the network qualifies for faster write-offs and depreciation is Rs 160 crore a year. Tax is 25%. Interest is on the opening debt, all free cash flow repays debt, and the sponsor exits after three years at 8x. Take the tax rules as stated in the case; real rules on depreciation rates should be checked for the asset and year.

2Your task

Show book tax against cash tax and the deferred tax liability each year. What does modelling the right tax do to free cash flow and returns, and what might a buyer do about the liability at exit?

Quick check

Which tax figure belongs in the free cash flow line of the LBO?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Cash tax runs Rs 15 crore a year below book tax, so free cash flow is Rs 15 crore higher and a deferred tax liability of Rs 45 crore builds over three years. Modelled on cash tax, exit equity is Rs 1,517 crore, 1.52x and 14.9% IRR, against 13.7% on book tax. If the buyer treats the liability as debt, most of that gain goes back.

Step 1Why are there two tax numbers at all?

Because the accounts and the tax return depreciate the same network at different speeds. Think of a phone you expect to use for five years: you might mentally spread its cost evenly, but a scheme that let you claim most of it in year one would put cash in your pocket now. Tax depreciation of Rs 160 crore against book depreciation of Rs 100 crore lowers taxable profit by Rs 60 crore, and at 25% that is Rs 15 crore of tax paid later rather than now. The accounts still show the full book tax, and record the unpaid part as a deferred tax liabilityTax that the accounts say has been incurred but that the tax return has not yet required, because tax deductions ran ahead of accounting expenses. It reverses when they fall behind..

YearEBITDAInterestBook taxCash taxFree cash flowDebt at year endDTL
125080.017.52.547.5952.515
227076.223.48.465.4887.130
329071.029.814.884.3802.945
Rs crore. Book tax is 25% of EBITDA less Rs 100 crore of book depreciation less interest; cash tax uses Rs 160 crore of tax depreciation instead. Free cash flow is EBITDA less cash tax, interest and Rs 120 crore of capex, and all of it repays debt, which falls from Rs 1,000 crore to Rs 802.9 crore.
Book tax, cash tax and the deferred tax liability, Rs crore10203040017.52.5Year 123.48.4Year 229.814.8Year 3DTL 15DTL 30DTL 45Book taxCash taxDeferred taxliabilityGap each year:25% x (160 - 100)= Rs 15 crore
Book tax rises from Rs 17.5 crore to Rs 29.8 crore and cash tax from Rs 2.5 crore to Rs 14.8 crore, a constant Rs 15 crore gap that builds a deferred tax liability of Rs 15, 30 and then 45 crore.
Step 2What does it do to free cash flow and returns?

Year 1 shows it most simply. Interest is 8% of Rs 1,000 crore, Rs 80 crore. Book profit before tax is 250 less 100 less 80, Rs 70 crore, so book tax is Rs 17.5 crore; taxable profit is 250 less 160 less 80, Rs 10 crore, so cash tax is Rs 2.5 crore. Free cash flow is 250 less 2.5 less 80 less 120, Rs 47.5 crore, not the Rs 32.5 crore a book-tax model shows. Every year the extra Rs 15 crore repays debt, which then saves interest, so the gap in debt widens slightly to Rs 47.8 crore by exit.

The relationship
MOIC=8×290−802.91,000=1.517×IRR=1.5171/3−1=14.9%\text{MOIC} = \frac{8 \times 290 - 802.9}{1{,}000} = 1.517\times \qquad \text{IRR} = 1.517^{1/3} - 1 = 14.9\%
8 x 290exit enterprise value, Rs 2,320 crore
802.9debt left after three years of cash-tax free cash flow
1,000equity invested at entry
What it says in wordsExit equity of Rs 1,517 crore on Rs 1,000 crore invested is 1.52x over three years, about 14.9% a year.
Exit equity three ways, Rs crore, on Rs 1,000 crore inModel uses book tax (wrong)1,4691.47x, IRR 13.7%Model uses cash tax1,5171.52x, IRR 14.9%Cash tax, buyer deducts DTL1,4721.47x, IRR 13.8%The tax timing is worth about 1 point of IRR, and a buyer may claw it back.
Modelling cash tax lifts exit equity from Rs 1,469 crore to Rs 1,517 crore and the IRR from 13.7% to 14.9%, but a buyer who deducts the Rs 45 crore deferred tax liability as debt takes equity back to Rs 1,472 crore.
Step 3Is the deferred tax liability debt?

It depends on whether it will reverse. Faster tax depreciation does not reduce total tax; it moves it. When the network's tax depreciation runs out and book depreciation continues, cash tax rises above book tax and the liability is paid. A buyer who expects that soon will argue the Rs 45 crore is debt-like and cut the price. But Nakshatra spends Rs 120 crore a year, more than its book depreciation; while the network keeps growing, new assets keep generating fresh accelerated deductions and the liability may never fall. That is the argument the seller makes.

So the close for an interviewer: model cash tax, show the liability, and state your exit assumption. Here the timing is worth about one point of IRR, 14.9% against 13.7%, and whether you keep it depends on the next owner's capex plan.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is pulling book tax from the income statement into the cash flow line. In a capital-heavy business with accelerated tax depreciation that understates cash every year, and the error compounds through the debt schedule.

The second miss is calling the deferred tax liability free money. It is a timing difference: it reverses when tax depreciation falls behind book, and a buyer can price it as debt at exit.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Capex falls to Rs 60 crore from year 4. What happens to cash tax and to the liability?
  • How would a deferred tax asset from past losses enter the model?
  • Should interest deductibility limits change this LBO, and how would you check the current rule?

Asked at TPG, Investments, Beijing, 2018 (Wall Street Oasis): One asked me how to deal with the deferred tax assets/liabilities. The other asked me to go through the LBO Model for the TMT industry.

← Case 003Pitch an early-stage agritech marketplace you like: why this company and this industry, and what would the fund need to believe to invest at a Rs 600 crore valuation?Case 005 →Consulting-style case: should the fund invest in a pest control business? Structure your answer across market, company, returns and risks.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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