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027

Case 027Deal structuring and pricingCore

The seller wants Rs 800 crore and you value the business at Rs 600 crore. Design an earnout on year 2 EBITDA that bridges the gap, and show what the seller receives under three outcomes.

1The situation

Vanaushadhi Herbal makes ayurvedic personal care products sold through chemists and online. EBITDA is Rs 60 crore. The founders are selling 100% and want Rs 800 crore, which they justify as 10x the Rs 80 crore of EBITDA their plan shows in year 2, on the back of a new distribution deal. Your fund believes year 2 EBITDA will be about Rs 60 crore, flat, because the distribution deal is unsigned and two rivals are discounting, and it values the business at 10x that: Rs 600 crore.

Both sides agree on the multiple. They disagree on the forecast.

2Your task

Design an earnout that lets the deal sign, then show the total price the seller receives if year 2 EBITDA is Rs 55, 70 or 85 crore. What else goes into the term?

Quick check

What should the earnout be tied to?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Pay Rs 600 crore at close, plus Rs 10 crore for every crore of year 2 EBITDA above Rs 60 crore, capped at Rs 200 crore. That is 10x whatever EBITDA actually arrives, never less than the buyer's value or more than the seller's. At Rs 55 crore the seller gets Rs 600 crore, at Rs 70 crore Rs 700 crore, at Rs 85 crore the capped Rs 800 crore. The hard part is defining EBITDA and protecting the seller from the buyer's control.

Step 1Why does an earnout work when a price does not?

Because the two sides are not arguing about value, they are arguing about a forecast. Think of selling a flat where the buyer says the metro line will not open on time and you say it will: rather than split the difference, you agree a price now and a top-up if the line opens by a date. An earnoutPart of a purchase price paid later, only if the business hits an agreed financial target after the sale. converts a disagreement about the future into a payment that waits for the future to arrive. Each side keeps its own view, and the one who turns out right gets paid for being right.

Step 2How do you set the terms so the maths is fair to both?

Start from the shared multiple. Both sides accept 10x, so the fair total price is 10x year 2 EBITDA. Pay the buyer's value up front, Rs 600 crore, and let the earnout add Rs 10 crore for each crore of EBITDA above Rs 60 crore, so the total always equals 10x the delivered number. Cap it at Rs 200 crore, the seller's own number, because the seller cannot ask for more than their forecast; and make it straight line, not a cliff, so the founders are not paid nothing at Rs 79 crore and everything at Rs 80 crore. A cliff invites a fight over the last rupee.

Total price against year 2 EBITDA, Rs crore: each side is paid on its own forecast600700800405060708090Year 2 EBITDA, Rs crorebuyer's caseseller's caseEBITDA 55: pays 600EBITDA 70: pays 700EBITDA 85: pays 800, cappedRs 10 crore of priceper crore of EBITDA
The total price is flat at Rs 600 crore up to year 2 EBITDA of Rs 60 crore, rises Rs 10 crore per crore of EBITDA to Rs 800 crore at Rs 80 crore and is capped there, so EBITDA of 55, 70 and 85 pays Rs 600, 700 and 800 crore.
Year 2 EBITDA, Rs croreWhat it meansUpfrontEarnoutTotal priceMultiple on actual EBITDA
55Below the buyer's own case600060010.9x
70Halfway between the two60010070010.0x
85Above the seller's forecast6002008009.4x
The seller receives Rs 600 crore if EBITDA disappoints at Rs 55 crore, Rs 700 crore at Rs 70 crore and Rs 800 crore at Rs 85 crore, where the cap binds and the buyer pays 9.4x, below the agreed multiple.
Step 3What else has to be in the term, or the earnout becomes a lawsuit?

Four things, and interviewers listen for them more than for the slope. First, define EBITDA line by line: the accounting policies frozen at signing, no charge for the buyer's management fees or financing, no credit for synergies the buyer brings. Second, the buyer controls the business for two years and could starve it of marketing to shrink the payment, so the seller needs covenants: a minimum budget, no change to the distribution model without consent, and the earnout accelerating if the buyer sells or merges the company. Third, an audit right and a quick dispute mechanism. Fourth, a say on how the earnout is paid: cash, escrowed at close if the seller is nervous, or shares if the buyer is short of cash.

Say the limit too. An earnout keeps the founders focused on one number for two years, and that number can be gamed: pushing stock into distributors in month 23 lifts EBITDA and leaves the buyer with returns in month 25. Where the founders stay to run the business, this is manageable. Where they leave at close, an earnout on a number they do not control is a promise to argue later, and a lower fixed price is better for both sides.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates propose splitting the difference at Rs 700 crore. That is a negotiation, not a structure, and it ignores that the sides are not haggling but forecasting differently. The interviewer wants a mechanism that pays on the outcome.

The second miss is a cliff at Rs 80 crore. All or nothing makes the last crore of EBITDA worth Rs 200 crore and guarantees a dispute about accounting at year end.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The founders are leaving at close. Does your earnout still work?
  • How would you fund the Rs 200 crore earnout if it is paid, and does the lender count it as debt?
  • Would you measure on EBITDA less capex instead, and what does that change?
← Case 026Paper LBO on your own sector: a diagnostics chain of 40 labs bought at 12x, with a plan to open 15 more. Work the return and name the lab-level assumption that matters most.Case 028 →A warehousing borrower has Rs 60 crore of cash available for debt service and pays Rs 45 crore a year. The lender's floor is 1.25x DSCR. How much more can it borrow on a 7 year amortising loan at 10%?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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