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053

Case 053Growth equity and softwareCore

Pitch me a company: an intercity bus ticketing platform. Size its revenue from the buses on it, say why now, and defend a valuation against a sceptical interviewer.

Silver LakeSan Francisco · 2022

1The situation

Yatrik Bus Lines runs a booking platform for private intercity buses. It owns no buses. Operators list their departures; passengers book on the app; Yatrik keeps a 10% commission on the fare and passes the rest to the operator. There are 2,000 buses on the platform, each selling one departure a day with 40 seats, and 70% of listed seats are sold through Yatrik at an average fare of Rs 800. Count 360 operating days.

Payment charges, customer support and refunds take 60% of commission revenue, so contribution margin is 40%. Fixed cost for the technology team, operator sales force and head office is Rs 45 crore a year. The founders say revenue has grown 30% a year and will keep doing so for three years.

2Your task

Size revenue and EBITDA from the operating numbers, give the three-sentence thesis, and defend an entry at 5x revenue when the interviewer says a 10% take rate will not survive.

Quick check

What is Yatrik's annual revenue, built from the buses?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Yatrik books about Rs 161 crore of revenue on Rs 1,613 crore of ticket value and earns about Rs 20 crore of EBITDA today. The thesis is a marketplace with fixed costs already covered, where every extra bus adds revenue at a 40% contribution margin. At 5x revenue, Rs 806 crore, the price rests on three years of 30% growth taking EBITDA to about Rs 97 crore; the defence against take-rate compression is that a fall to 7% still leaves the platform profitable.

Step 1How do you size the business out loud, and why does the interviewer want to watch you do it?

Build from the physical units. Think of a wedding caterer who quotes by counting guests, plates per guest and the price of a plate; nobody trusts a number that starts with the total. 2,000 buses x 40 seats x 70% occupancy is 56,000 seats a day; at Rs 800 a seat and 360 days that is Rs 1,613 crore of tickets, of which Yatrik keeps 10%, Rs 161 crore. The take rateThe share of transaction value a marketplace keeps as its own revenue. A 10% take rate on Rs 100 of tickets is Rs 10 of revenue. is the hinge of the whole pitch, so say it as a separate step rather than burying it.

Size the business in front of the interviewer: buses to seats to commissionBuses onthe platform2,000Seatsper busx 40Occupancy70% of seatsx 0.70Seats solda day56,000FareRs per seatx 800Daysa yearx 360Ticket value through the platform (GMV)Rs 1,613 crorex 10% commissionRevenue to YatrikRs 161 crorex 40% contribution, less Rs 45 crore fixedEBITDA todayRs 19.5 crore
Two thousand buses with 40 seats at 70% occupancy sell 56,000 seats a day, Rs 1,613 crore of tickets a year, on which Yatrik's 10% commission is Rs 161 crore of revenue and, after a 40% contribution margin and Rs 45 crore of fixed cost, Rs 19.5 crore of EBITDA.
Step 2What is the thesis, and why now?

Three sentences. Intercity bus travel is a large, fragmented market where operators cannot build their own booking technology, so a platform that aggregates demand earns a toll on every seat. Fixed costs of Rs 45 crore are already covered, so growth from here drops to EBITDA at the 40% contribution margin. Why now: operators who used to sell through agents and counters now accept that a listing fee is cheaper than empty seats, and the switch from cash to digital payment makes the commission collectable. Keep the why-now about behaviour you can diligence by calling operators, not about a macro statistic you half remember.

Step 3How do you defend 5x revenue when the interviewer attacks the take rate?

Agree that take rate is the risk, then show the business survives it. At 30% growth for three years revenue reaches Rs 354 crore and EBITDA about Rs 97 crore, so Rs 806 crore today is 8.3x year 3 EBITDA, and at 15x that EBITDA the exit value is Rs 1,451 crore. Then run the attack: at a 7% take rate on today's tickets, revenue is Rs 113 crore and EBITDA Rs 0.2 crore, still positive. The pitch does not need 10% to hold; it needs operators to keep listing, which is a question about their alternatives, not about Yatrik's pricing.

Take rateRevenue, Rs croreEBITDA, Rs croreEBITDA margin
7.0%112.90.20%
8.5%137.19.87%
10.0%161.319.512%
On today's Rs 1,613 crore of tickets, a take rate falling from 10% to 7% cuts revenue from Rs 161 crore to Rs 113 crore and EBITDA from Rs 19.5 crore to Rs 0.2 crore, so the platform stays profitable but the growth story does most of the work in the price.
Step 4What do you concede, so the pitch sounds like judgement rather than sales?

Name the two things that would make you walk away. If the top twenty operators carry most of the seats, they can build or share their own booking and bypass the platform, and if occupancy sold through Yatrik is 70% only because it discounts, the take rate is already lower than it looks. Both are checkable in a week of diligence: operator concentration from the listing data, and the net fare after coupons from the payments ledger. A pitch that ends with its own kill criteria is the one the room remembers.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is pitching gross ticket value as revenue. Rs 1,613 crore flows through the platform; Rs 161 crore belongs to Yatrik. A multiple applied to the wrong base is off by ten times.

The second is a why-now built on remembered statistics. Interviewers at a growth fund will ask where the number came from; a why-now built on operator behaviour you could verify by phone is safer and sharper.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Occupancy sold through the platform falls to 55% in a slow year. What happens to EBITDA?
  • A large operator with 300 buses leaves to sell direct. How much revenue goes with it?
  • Would you rather Yatrik raised its take rate to 12% or added 500 buses at 10%?
  • What one data request would you make before a second meeting?

Asked at Silver Lake, Technology, Media and Telecom (TMT), San Francisco, 2022 (Wall Street Oasis): Pitch me a company (Round 2)

← Case 052Build an LBO from scratch in two hours: revenue, margin, two debt tranches with different repayment, tax, capex and a 8.5x exit. What are the returns, and what is the thesis you defend afterwards?Case 054 →A fund builds a logistics park on land it buys. What is the yield on cost once it is leased, and what is the development profit if it sells at a 7.5% cap rate?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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