Case 076Screening and ranking businessesCore
You have one hour and five numbers on each of three businesses. Which one would you study further, and what would you ask for first?
1The situation
A partner hands you one sheet and leaves for an hour. Three businesses, five numbers each, and a note: pick one to take to the next stage.
Ilavan Foods, packaged snacks: revenue Rs 600 crore, growing 9% a year, EBITDA margin 11%, net debt Rs 150 crore, sold through 40,000 retail outlets. Sthir Pipes, ductile iron pipes for water projects: revenue Rs 900 crore, growing 4%, EBITDA margin 14%, net debt Rs 420 crore, 12 live contracts. Nabhas Travel, an online bus ticketing platform: revenue Rs 300 crore, growing 25%, EBITDA margin 6%, net cash Rs 20 crore, 2 million users.
2Your task
Which business do you take forward, what is the one number you would ask for first, and why does that question matter more than the ranking?
Quick check
Which row on the sheet separates the three businesses most sharply?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
Take Ilavan Foods forward, and ask first for the split of its 9% growth into volume and price. It earns Rs 66 crore of EBITDA, carries 2.3x of net debt and sells through 40,000 outlets, so no customer can hurt it. Sthir Pipes earns more but hangs on 12 contracts at 3.3x leverage. Nabhas grows fastest, but a 6% margin on Rs 300 crore of revenue says the revenue line may not be the company's own money.
Step 1What can five numbers actually tell you?
Less than you want and more than you fear. Imagine choosing between three stalls to buy at a market with only the takings, the rent and the number of regulars: you cannot value any of them, but you can say which one would survive losing a customer. Revenue times margin gives you the earnings, net debt over earnings gives you the leverage, and the customer count tells you what kind of business you are looking at. Ilavan earns Rs 66 crore, Sthir Rs 126 crore, Nabhas Rs 18 crore. Sthir is the largest earner and the most levered at 3.3x; Ilavan is 2.3x; Nabhas has cash.
Step 2Why does the customer row carry the decision?
Because it names each company's single point of failure. A household on one salary is in a different position from one with three earners, even at the same income. Sthir's 12 contracts mean one lost tender removes about 8% of revenue, and at 3.3x leverage that is a covenant conversation, not a bad quarter. Ilavan's 40,000 outlets mean its risk is a slow shift in taste, which shows up over years, not in a week. Nabhas's 2 million users are not customers in the same sense; they are transactions, and the real customers may be the bus operators who set the commission.
| Rs crore | Ilavan Foods | Sthir Pipes | Nabhas Travel |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 66 | 126 | 18 |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 2.3x | 3.3x | net cash |
| Revenue per customer | Rs 1.5 lakh per outlet | Rs 75 crore per contract | Rs 1,500 per user |
| What one lost customer costs | nothing visible | about 8% of revenue | nothing visible |
Step 3What is the first thing you ask for, and why is it part of the answer?
With little information, the question you ask shows the interviewer how you would spend the next hour. For Ilavan, ask for the growth split into volume and price: 9% growth that is all price in an inflationary year is a different business from 9% that is new outlets and new packs. For Sthir you would ask for the contract-by-contract margin and the tender pipeline; for Nabhas, whether Rs 300 crore is gross booking valueThe full ticket price that passes through a platform, as opposed to the commission the platform keeps as its own revenue. or commission, because a 6% margin on commission revenue is healthy and a 6% margin on pass-through revenue is nothing at all.
Then say what would change your pick. If Sthir's 12 contracts are with twelve different state water boards and its margin per contract is stable, concentration is less frightening and its lower growth is priced in. If Nabhas's revenue is commission, it may be the best business on the sheet and the one with the least need for a sponsor's debt. A ranking with the test that would reverse it is the answer; a ranking alone is a guess with confidence.
Where candidates lose it
The usual loss is ranking on growth and margin alone, picking Nabhas for its 25% and never asking what the revenue line is. Platform revenue can be the ticket price or the commission, and the sheet does not say which.
The second miss is treating the hour as time to compute rather than to decide. The partner wants a choice, the number that would confirm it, and the number that would overturn it, in that order.
What the interviewer asks next
- Sthir's largest contract is 30% of revenue and runs out next year. Does that change the leverage you would put on it?
- Nabhas's revenue turns out to be commission at a 12% take rate. What is the booking value, and what does that do to your view?
- Ilavan's 9% growth is 8% price and 1% volume. What do you ask for next?
Asked at Viking Global Investors, Private Equity, New York, 2025 (Wall Street Oasis): Case study was difficult, little information given about each company and time crunch (1 hour)
Company names and figures are illustrative.
