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022

Case 022Products and fund selectionHard

An autocallable note on an index pays 9% a year if the index is at or above its start on an annual observation date, and then calls. If it ends below 60% of its start after three years, capital is lost one for one. Work three scenarios and say what the coupon is paying for.

1The situation

A private bank client is offered an invented Rs 1 crore note linked to an equity index. On each anniversary for three years, the index is compared with its starting level. If it is at or above the start, the note ends early and pays back the capital plus 9% for every year since issue. If it is never at or above the start on an observation date, then at the end of year 3: if the index is at 60% of its start or higher, capital comes back in full with no coupon; if it is below 60%, the client gets back the index's level, so an index at 55% returns Rs 55 lakh.

The barrier is observed only at the end of year 3. Payments depend on the issuing bank being able to pay. The index excludes dividends, which the client would forgo.

2Your task

Work the payoff in an early call, a late call, a flat market and a crash, and explain in plain words what the 9% coupon is paying the client for.

Quick check

The index ends year 3 at 55% of its start, never having recovered on an observation date. What does the client get back?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The note pays 9% a year when markets are flat to up, and hands over the index's full loss when they fall below 60%. An early call returns Rs 1.09 crore after a year; a late call Rs 1.27 crore after three; a flat market returns capital with no coupon; a 45% crash returns Rs 55 lakh. The coupon is the price the client is paid for taking the index's severe downside and giving up its upside.

Step 1How does the note decide what to pay?

Picture a landlord who offers a tenant a rent discount every year the market is calm, on one condition: if the building's value collapses by more than 40%, the tenant pays for the loss. In calm years the deal looks generous. An autocallableA structured note that ends early and pays a fixed coupon if the underlying index is at or above a set level on an observation date. pays a fixed coupon in good and flat outcomes and passes the index's loss to the client in the bad one. Each anniversary asks one question; if the answer is never yes, year 3 has three outcomes.

Each year the note asks one question; the last year has three answersYear 1 observationIndex at or above its start?yesCalled: Rs 1.09 crorecapital + 9% x 1 yearnoYear 2 observationIndex at or above its start?yesCalled: Rs 1.18 crorecapital + 9% x 2 yearsnoYear 3 observationIndex at or above its start?yesCalled: Rs 1.27 crorecapital + 9% x 3 yearsno: where did it end?60% to 100% of its startRs 1 crore back, no couponBelow 60% of its startthe index level: 55% pays Rs 55 lakhThe most itcan ever pay:Rs 1.27 croreThe loss hasno floorThe 9% a year is paid for accepting the index's fall below 60%, and for giving up any riseabove the coupon, plus the index's dividends.
The note is called with Rs 1.09, 1.18 or 1.27 crore if the index is at or above its start on the first, second or third anniversary; otherwise it returns Rs 1 crore if the index ends between 60% and 100% of its start, and the index level if it ends below 60%.
Step 2What happens in each scenario?

Run four paths. Index at 106% after one year: called, Rs 1.09 crore, 9% for the year, while the index rose 6%. Index at 94%, 97% and then 103%: called in year 3 at Rs 1.27 crore, about 8.3% a year, while the index rose 3%. Index at 85%, 90% and 80%: never called, above the barrier, Rs 1 crore back and nothing for three years. Index at 88%, 72% and 55%: below the barrier, Rs 55 lakh back. The note beats the index in flat and mildly rising markets, matches its loss in a crash, and can never pay more than Rs 1.27 crore however far the index rises.

ScenarioIndex on observation datesEndsPaid, Rs lakhNote a yearIndex move
Early call106%Year 1109+9.0%+6%
Late call94%, 97%, 103%Year 3127+8.3%+3%
Flat, no coupon85%, 90%, 80%Year 3100+0.0%-20%
Knock-in88%, 72%, 55%Year 355-18.1%-45%
On Rs 1 crore the note pays Rs 109 lakh after an early call and Rs 127 lakh after a late call, returns Rs 100 lakh in a flat market, and returns Rs 55 lakh if the index ends at 55%, a loss of 18.1% a year.
Step 3What is the coupon really paying for?

Draw the payoff at year 3 against where the index ends. Below 60% the note tracks the index exactly; from 60% to 100% it is flat at Rs 1 crore; at 100% and above it is capped at Rs 1.27 crore. The client has in effect sold the bank insurance against a severe fall in the index, a down-and-in putAn option that only comes into existence if the price falls through a barrier, after which it pays the full fall from the starting level., and given up the index's upside and dividends; the 9% is the premium for both. Selling insurance feels like income in calm years and pays out in the year the client can least afford it.

At maturity: the index's downside below 60, a capped upside above 10040608010012014040%60%80%100%120%130%Index at year 3, % of start55% pays 55Rs 1 crore back, no coupon127: cappedowning the indexBelow 60%: the note fallswith the index, from the start
At maturity the note pays the index level below 60%, a flat Rs 1 crore from 60% to just under 100%, and a capped Rs 1.27 crore at 100% or above, so the client keeps the index's severe downside while giving up its upside.
Step 4What else would you tell the client?

Two risks sit outside the index. The note is a promise from the issuing bank, so if the bank fails, even the good outcomes are at risk; that is credit risk, and a single issuer should be sized accordingly. And the note is hard to sell before it ends, often only back to the issuer at a price it sets. Say the limitation of the scenarios too: they are illustrations, not probabilities. The fair question for a client is whether she would sell insurance on a 40% crash for 9% a year, and for whom that is a suitable trade at all.

Where candidates lose it

The usual mistake is reading the 60% barrier as a floor and saying the client can lose at most 40%. Once the barrier is breached, the loss runs from the start, so an index at 55% costs 45%.

The second is calling the coupon a yield. It is an option premium: candidates who describe the note as a bond with an equity kicker miss that the client is the one writing the insurance.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How would the coupon change if the barrier were 70% instead of 60%, and why?
  • The note is issued by a bank rated two notches lower than another offering 8%. Which would you look at more closely, and why?
  • How would you explain this note to a Conservative client, and would you offer it at all?
← Case 021Add 10% of a 60/40 portfolio to a long-short fund returning 12% with beta 0.4, or to more long-only equity returning 14%. With the market at 12% volatility, which improves the portfolio's return for its risk more?Case 023 →The central bank cuts rates by 50 basis points. Mark to market a Rs 8 crore portfolio that is 40% long bonds of duration 7, 50% equity and 10% cash. What changes, and what do you tell the client?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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