Case 055Risk profiling and IPSWarm up
A client says he can stand losing Rs 50 lakh of his Rs 4 crore in a bad year. If equity can fall 35% and debt 3% in a one-in-twenty year, what is the most equity he can hold?
1The situation
Dhruv Malhotra-Sen, 52, has Rs 4 crore invested, currently 55% in equity and 45% in debt. In the risk-profiling meeting he says plainly that he could live with losing Rs 50 lakh in a bad year, and that anything more would have him selling.
Your firm's planning assumptions for a one-in-twenty bad year are a 35% fall in equity and a 3% fall in debt. There is no other asset and no withdrawal in the year.
2Your task
What is the most equity he can hold and stay inside his own limit, and what does that say about his current portfolio?
Quick check
Pick the maximum equity weight before calculating.
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
About 30% equity, 29.7% to be exact. His Rs 50 lakh limit is 12.5% of Rs 4 crore. Debt costs 3% in a bad year regardless, and each point of equity adds 0.32 points of loss, so equity can be (12.5 minus 3) divided by 32, or 29.7%. His current 55% would lose about Rs 82 lakh, well past what he says he can stand.
Step 1How do you turn a rupee limit into a weight?
Picture a car that uses a litre of fuel just idling and a further litre for every ten kilometres. If you have four litres, the distance is not 40 km; the first litre is spent before you move. The portfolio's bad-year loss works the same way: debt's 3% is spent regardless, and only the rest of the loss budget is available for equity. The budget is Rs 50 lakh on Rs 4 crore, 12.5%. Take off the 3% floor, and 9.5 points remain to be spent at 32 points of extra loss per unit of equity.
| w | the share of the portfolio in equity |
| 35%, 3% | bad-year falls for equity and debt |
| 12.5% | Rs 50 lakh as a share of Rs 4 crore |
Step 2What does this say about his current portfolio?
At 55% equity the bad-year loss is 55% of 35% plus 45% of 3%, which is 20.6% or Rs 82.4 lakh. His portfolio already carries about 1.65 times the loss he told you he can stand, so either the portfolio or the stated limit has to change. This is where the meeting becomes a conversation, not a calculation. Show him the Rs 82 lakh figure and ask whether he meant the limit; people often understate their risk toleranceHow much loss a client is willing to sit through without selling, which is a matter of temperament and can differ from what they can afford. when talking in percentages and state it more honestly in rupees.
Step 3What are the limits of this method?
Say them briefly. A one-in-twenty year is not the worst year; a deeper fall, say 50%, would breach the limit even at 30% equity. The 35% is a planning assumption, not a law of markets. And the method ignores time: a client who never sells can sit through a fall that a client needing the money cannot. The answer is a ceiling to start from, reviewed as his circumstances change.
| Equity weight | Bad-year loss | Rs lakh | Inside Rs 50 lakh? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 9.4% | 37.6 | Yes |
| 29.7% | 12.5% | 50.0 | Exactly at the limit |
| 40% | 15.8% | 63.2 | No |
| 55%, today | 20.60% | 82.4 | No, by Rs 32.4 lakh |
Where candidates lose it
The instinctive answer is 12.5%: the limit divided by the portfolio, treated as if it were the equity weight. That ignores both that equity does not lose 100% and that debt loses something too.
The second miss is getting 29.7% and not noticing the client is at 55% today. The interviewer wants the number, then the conversation it forces: the portfolio is nearly twice as risky as the client says he can bear.
What the interviewer asks next
- He adds 10% in gold, which rises 5% in the bad year. How much equity can he now hold?
- How would you present the Rs 82 lakh figure to him without sounding alarmist?
- His limit is stated as 12.5% rather than Rs 50 lakh. After a 20% rally, does his equity ceiling change?
Company names and figures are illustrative.
