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055

Case 055Risk profiling and IPSWarm up

A client says he can stand losing Rs 50 lakh of his Rs 4 crore in a bad year. If equity can fall 35% and debt 3% in a one-in-twenty year, what is the most equity he can hold?

1The situation

Dhruv Malhotra-Sen, 52, has Rs 4 crore invested, currently 55% in equity and 45% in debt. In the risk-profiling meeting he says plainly that he could live with losing Rs 50 lakh in a bad year, and that anything more would have him selling.

Your firm's planning assumptions for a one-in-twenty bad year are a 35% fall in equity and a 3% fall in debt. There is no other asset and no withdrawal in the year.

2Your task

What is the most equity he can hold and stay inside his own limit, and what does that say about his current portfolio?

Quick check

Pick the maximum equity weight before calculating.

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

About 30% equity, 29.7% to be exact. His Rs 50 lakh limit is 12.5% of Rs 4 crore. Debt costs 3% in a bad year regardless, and each point of equity adds 0.32 points of loss, so equity can be (12.5 minus 3) divided by 32, or 29.7%. His current 55% would lose about Rs 82 lakh, well past what he says he can stand.

Step 1How do you turn a rupee limit into a weight?

Picture a car that uses a litre of fuel just idling and a further litre for every ten kilometres. If you have four litres, the distance is not 40 km; the first litre is spent before you move. The portfolio's bad-year loss works the same way: debt's 3% is spent regardless, and only the rest of the loss budget is available for equity. The budget is Rs 50 lakh on Rs 4 crore, 12.5%. Take off the 3% floor, and 9.5 points remain to be spent at 32 points of extra loss per unit of equity.

The relationship
w⋅35%+(1−w)⋅3%=12.5%  ⇒  w=12.5−335−3=29.7%w\cdot 35\% + (1-w)\cdot 3\% = 12.5\% \;\Rightarrow\; w = \frac{12.5 - 3}{35 - 3} = 29.7\%
wthe share of the portfolio in equity
35%, 3%bad-year falls for equity and debt
12.5%Rs 50 lakh as a share of Rs 4 crore
What it says in wordsSet the portfolio's bad-year loss equal to the client's limit and solve for the equity share.
Bad-year loss on Rs 4 crore against the equity weight (Rs lakh)501001500His limit: Rs 50 lakhMaximum equity 29.7%Today, 55% equity: loses 82.4All equity: 140All debt: 120%25%50%75%100%Share of the portfolio in equity
Dhruv's bad-year loss rises from Rs 12 lakh with no equity to Rs 140 lakh with all equity, crossing his Rs 50 lakh limit at 29.7% equity; his current 55% would lose about Rs 82.4 lakh.
Step 2What does this say about his current portfolio?

At 55% equity the bad-year loss is 55% of 35% plus 45% of 3%, which is 20.6% or Rs 82.4 lakh. His portfolio already carries about 1.65 times the loss he told you he can stand, so either the portfolio or the stated limit has to change. This is where the meeting becomes a conversation, not a calculation. Show him the Rs 82 lakh figure and ask whether he meant the limit; people often understate their risk toleranceHow much loss a client is willing to sit through without selling, which is a matter of temperament and can differ from what they can afford. when talking in percentages and state it more honestly in rupees.

Step 3What are the limits of this method?

Say them briefly. A one-in-twenty year is not the worst year; a deeper fall, say 50%, would breach the limit even at 30% equity. The 35% is a planning assumption, not a law of markets. And the method ignores time: a client who never sells can sit through a fall that a client needing the money cannot. The answer is a ceiling to start from, reviewed as his circumstances change.

Equity weightBad-year lossRs lakhInside Rs 50 lakh?
20%9.4%37.6Yes
29.7%12.5%50.0Exactly at the limit
40%15.8%63.2No
55%, today20.60%82.4No, by Rs 32.4 lakh
Every 10 points of equity adds 3.2% of bad-year loss, Rs 12.8 lakh on Rs 4 crore, so the Rs 50 lakh limit is reached at 29.7% equity and today's 55% overshoots it by Rs 32.4 lakh.

Where candidates lose it

The instinctive answer is 12.5%: the limit divided by the portfolio, treated as if it were the equity weight. That ignores both that equity does not lose 100% and that debt loses something too.

The second miss is getting 29.7% and not noticing the client is at 55% today. The interviewer wants the number, then the conversation it forces: the portfolio is nearly twice as risky as the client says he can bear.

What the interviewer asks next

  • He adds 10% in gold, which rises 5% in the bad year. How much equity can he now hold?
  • How would you present the Rs 82 lakh figure to him without sounding alarmist?
  • His limit is stated as 12.5% rather than Rs 50 lakh. After a 20% rally, does his equity ceiling change?
← Case 054A family wants to fund a degree abroad that costs Rs 40 lakh today for a child now 5, needed in 13 years, with education costs rising 8% a year. They hold Rs 15 lakh and expect 10% a year. What monthly SIP closes the gap?Case 056 →A Rs 10 crore portfolio with a 50/40/10 target in equity, debt and gold has drifted to 62/31/7 after a rally, and Rs 80 lakh of new money arrives. Rebalance it with the fewest sales.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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