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089

Case 089Market view and security pitchCore

Give a brief stock pitch for a client portfolio: an invented food company at Rs 4,000 crore market value, 28 times earnings, 22% return on equity, 15% growth and net cash. Pitch it and size it at 3% of Rs 5 crore.

Northern TrustChicago · 2022

1The situation

Tanvika Foods, an invented company, makes regional packaged snacks and spice blends and sells them through small grocers in western and southern India. Its market value is Rs 4,000 crore and it trades at 28 times last year's earnings. Return on equity is 22%, earnings have grown about 15% a year for five years, and it has net cash and no debt.

The client's portfolio is Rs 5 crore and already diversified. The interviewer asks for a two-minute pitch, ending with the size of the position. Every figure is invented and illustrative.

2Your task

Pitch Tanvika in four parts, show what return the numbers imply under different multiples, and size the position.

Quick check

If earnings grow 15% a year for five years but the P/E falls from 28 to 18, roughly what annual return does a holder earn?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

A high-quality business at a full price: worth a 3% position, Rs 15 lakh, and not more, because the return depends on the multiple holding. Earnings of about Rs 143 crore compound at 15% with a 22% return on equity and no debt. If 28 times holds, the return is about 16% a year; if the multiple falls to 18, about 6%. At 3%, a 40% fall costs the client Rs 6 lakh, 1.2% of the portfolio, which the rest can absorb.

Step 1What shape does a two-minute client pitch take?

Four boxes, in order: what the business does, the three numbers that matter, the one risk that could break it, and how much to own. A good restaurant review names the dish, the price and the catch before the verdict. A client pitch that ends with a view but no size is unfinished, because the size is what turns an opinion into a decision the client can act on. Interviewers in private wealth listen for that last box more than for the story.

A client pitch in four boxes, and the last box is a size1 BusinessRegional packaged snacks andspices, net cash, no debtSells through small grocers2 NumbersRs 4,000 cr at 28x earningsEarnings about Rs 143 cr, ROE 22%Growth 15%, payout 32%3 RiskThe multiple: 28x pricesin years of 15% growthExit at 18x: about 6% a year4 Size3% of Rs 5 crore= Rs 15 lakh positionA 40% fall costs Rs 6 lakh
The Tanvika pitch runs business, numbers, risk and size, ending with a Rs 15 lakh position, 3% of Rs 5 crore, where a 40% fall would cost Rs 6 lakh.
Step 2What do the numbers say about the business?

Derive what the headline figures imply. Earnings are Rs 4,000 crore divided by 28, about Rs 143 crore; at a 22% return on equity the book is about Rs 649 crore, so the market pays 6.2 times book. Growing 15% while earning 22% on equity means retaining about 68% of profit, paying out 32%, a dividend yield near 1.1%. That is a business funding its own growth, which is what the return on equityProfit divided by shareholders funds; how many rupees of profit each rupee the owners left in the business earns in a year. is telling you.

Step 3Where is the risk, if the business is this good?

In the price. At 28 times, the market already expects years of 15% growth. If growth holds but the multiple eases to 22, the return falls to about 11% a year; at 18 it falls to about 6%, close to a bank deposit, for an equity risk. The business risks sit underneath: distribution through small grocers can be disrupted, and input costs such as edible oil squeeze margins. Say plainly that a good company and a good investment are different claims.

Same growth, three exit multiples: the price paid decides the returnMultiple holds at 28x16.1% a yearMultiple eases to 22x10.7% a yearMultiple falls to 18x6.4% a yearEarnings grow 15% a year in all three; the dividend adds about 1.1 points.Illustrative arithmetic on an invented company, not a forecast.
With earnings growing 15% a year for five years, Tanvika returns about 16.1% a year if the 28 times multiple holds, 10.7% at 22 times and only 6.4% at 18 times, so the multiple paid is the main risk.
Step 4Why 3%, and what would change the size?

Size to the damage the client can take, not to conviction. Rs 15 lakh is 3% of Rs 5 crore; if the stock fell 40%, a normal bad year for a richly valued mid-sized company, the client loses Rs 6 lakh, 1.2% of the portfolio. A lower multiple, say 20 times on the same growth, would justify a larger weight because less can go wrong in the price. A client already holding other consumer companies would get less, because the risks overlap.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates pitch the business, great brand, strong returns, and never test the price. The interviewer's follow-up is always what happens if the multiple falls, and a candidate without the arithmetic has no answer.

The second miss is stopping at a view. In private wealth the pitch ends with a size and what that size costs the client in a bad year.

What the interviewer asks next

  • What would make you sell the position in two years?
  • Growth slows to 10% a year and the multiple drops to 20. What is the five-year return?
  • The client already owns two other consumer staples companies. How does that change the size?

Asked at Northern Trust, Private Wealth Management, Chicago, 2022 (Wall Street Oasis): Asked about my view on some stocks and I gave a brief pitch.

← Case 088A client needs a Rs 2 crore bridge for 9 months and holds Rs 4 crore of equity at 50% loan-to-value and Rs 2 crore of debt funds at 80%. Is a loan against securities enough, and what fall in equity triggers a margin call?Case 090 →A relationship manager's scorecard shows a book of Rs 250 crore, net new money of Rs 30 crore, revenue of Rs 2.2 crore and cost of Rs 70 lakh. What are his return on assets and cost coverage, and what does the bank read from them?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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