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025

Case 025Portfolio constructionCore

Build a risk-parity mix of equities (volatility 18%), bonds (6%) and gold (15%) ignoring correlations: the inverse-volatility weights, the portfolio volatility at zero correlation, and the leverage needed to reach 10% volatility.

1The situation

Trayodash Multi-Asset wants a three-sleeve portfolio of equities, government bonds and gold in which each sleeve carries the same risk. The desk's volatility estimates are 18% a year for equities, 6% for bonds and 15% for gold. For the first cut the head of desk says to ignore correlations entirely and use inverse-volatility weights.

The mandate's target is 10% annualised portfolio volatility, and the desk can borrow or use futures to lever the mix.

2Your task

Compute the inverse-volatility weights and each sleeve's risk contribution, the portfolio volatility at zero correlation, and the leverage needed to reach 10%; then say what correlations and funding costs do to the answer.

Quick check

Before computing: roughly what share of capital goes to bonds?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Inverse-volatility weights are equities 19.2%, bonds 57.7% and gold 23.1%, each contributing 3.46 points of volatility. At zero correlation the portfolio volatility is that figure times the square root of 3, about 6.0%, so reaching the 10% target needs 1.67 times leverage, borrowing about 67% of capital. Real correlations and funding costs then move the number: under the desk's correlations the risk shares drift apart and the unlevered volatility shifts, and every rupee borrowed costs the funding rate.

Step 1How do you weight three sleeves so each carries the same risk?

Give each sleeve capital in proportion to one over its volatility. One over 18%, one over 6% and one over 15% are 5.56, 16.67 and 6.67, summing to 28.89; divide through and the weights are 19.2%, 57.7% and 23.1%. Each weight times its volatility is then the same 3.46 percentage points, which is what equal risk means when the sleeves are uncorrelated. Three people carrying a sofa share the weight equally by standing where the load is equal, not by standing an equal distance apart; the bonds sleeve stands closest to the heavy end because it is the weakest mover per rupee. Compare an equal-weight book: a third each gives equities 55% of the risk and bonds 6%, which is an equity fund with a bond garnish.

The relationship
wi=1/σi∑j1/σjwbonds=1/0.061/0.18+1/0.06+1/0.15=0.577w_i = \frac{1/\sigma_i}{\sum_j 1/\sigma_j} \qquad w_{\text{bonds}} = \frac{1/0.06}{1/0.18 + 1/0.06 + 1/0.15} = 0.577
w_icapital weight of sleeve i
\sigma_iannualised volatility of sleeve i
What it says in wordsThe quietest sleeve gets the most capital, in exact proportion to how quiet it is.
Equal risk means very unequal capitalCapital weightsEquities19%Bonds58%Gold23%Risk contributions, zero correlationEquities33%Bonds33%Gold33%same bookEach sleeve contributes 3.46% of volatility: weight times volatility is equalised
The same book drawn twice: by capital it is 58% bonds, 23% gold and 19% equities, and by risk contribution at zero correlation it is one third each, because equal risk requires very unequal capital.
Step 2What is the portfolio's volatility, and why is it so low?

With zero correlation the variances add. Each sleeve contributes 3.46 points, so the portfolio volatility is 3.46 times the square root of 3, about 6.0%. That is lower than every sleeve on its own, including bonds at 6%, because three uncorrelated sources of risk partly cancel; it is also well below the 10% target, which is the normal state of a risk-parity book and the reason the strategy is nearly always levered. Say the limit: zero correlation is an assumption, not a measurement. With a desk estimate of minus 0.2 between equities and bonds, plus 0.1 between equities and gold and plus 0.2 between bonds and gold, the same weights give about 6.2% volatility, and the risk contributions are no longer equal: equities 28%, bonds 31%, gold 41%. True risk parity solves for weights that equalise contributions under the full covariance matrix; inverse volatility is the first cut the head of desk asked for.

Step 3How much leverage reaches 10%, and what does it cost?

Volatility scales with leverage, so the multiple is the target over the unlevered figure: 10% over 6.0% is 1.67 times. For every Rs 100 of capital the book holds Rs 167 of positions and borrows Rs 67, or uses futures with the same economic effect. Leverage is not free. If the desk's funding rate were 7%, borrowing 67% of capital would cost about 4.7% of capital a year before any return, and the desk must confirm its own rate rather than take that figure as given. The 1.67 times also assumes the 6% bond volatility holds; if bond volatility doubles in a rates shock, the bond sleeve that holds 58% of the capital carries far more than a third of the risk and the levered book's volatility jumps with it. That is the failure that hurts risk-parity books: the leverage was sized on the calm sleeve.

The balanced book is too quiet, so it is levered to a normal risk levelEquities alone18.0%Equal weights, a third each8.1%, equities 55% of riskInverse-volatility weights6.0%, a third eachSame mix at 1.67x leverage10.0%: borrow 67% of capitaltarget 10%Annualised portfolio volatility, correlations assumed zero
Equities alone run at 18% and an equal-weight mix at 8.1%, but the inverse-volatility mix is only 6.0% at zero correlation, so it must be levered 1.67 times, borrowing 67% of capital, to reach the 10% target.
SleeveVolatilityCapital weightWeight x volRisk share, zero corrRisk share, desk corr
Equities18%19.2%3.4633%28%
Bonds6%57.7%3.4633%31%
Gold15%23.1%3.4633%41%
Portfolio6.0% (zero corr)100%100%100% at 6.2%
Inverse-volatility weights equalise weight times volatility; under the desk's correlations the shares drift apart and the unlevered volatility moves to 6.2%, so the leverage must be re-solved with the full covariance matrix.

Close with the view. The first cut is right as far as it goes: bond-heavy capital, equal risk, about 6% volatility, levered about 1.7 times. What the desk should do before trading it is re-solve with the full covariance matrix, size the leverage on a stressed bond volatility rather than today's 6%, and put the funding cost next to the expected return of each sleeve, because a levered book of low-return assets can be equal in risk and still not worth running.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is equal risk by instinct: giving each sleeve a third of the capital and calling it balanced. That book is more than half equity risk, and the interviewer wants the arithmetic that shows it.

The second is stopping at the unlevered 6%. A risk-parity mix is quiet by construction, and a candidate who does not reach for the leverage, and name its funding cost and its dependence on calm bond volatility, has described the portfolio without understanding why it exists.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Bond volatility rises to 12% while the weights stay fixed. What are the levered book's volatility and risk shares now?
  • How would you solve for true equal risk contributions with the full covariance matrix?
  • Funding costs 7% and bonds yield 7.2%. Is the levered bond sleeve worth holding?
  • Would you lever with borrowed cash or with futures, and what changes?
← Case 024You are long 10 contracts on the number of sixes in 30 dice, bought at an average of 5.2 at Rs 100 a point, when the interviewer reveals that none of the first 12 dice shows a six. Reprice, mark your P&L and decide whether to cut.Case 026 →You and three computer quoters make markets on the sum of five cards drawn from one suit numbered 1 to 13. Each bot has seen one card and its mid is 37, 33 or 39. What did each bot see, and where do you quote?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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