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058

Case 058Portfolio constructionHard

A long-short pair uses stock A (beta 1.2, size exposure 0.5) and stock B (beta 0.8, size exposure -0.3) on Rs 10 crore of gross exposure. Find market-neutral weights, then show what it costs to neutralise size as well with an index future.

1The situation

Ilavari Capital likes stock A and dislikes stock B and wants a long-short pair with Rs 10 crore of gross exposure. From the risk model: A has market beta 1.2 and exposure 0.5 to the size factor (positive means it behaves like a small company); B has beta 0.8 and size exposure -0.3. Stock-specific volatility is 28% a year for A and 22% for B. The market factor's volatility is 16% a year and the size factor's is 8%.

Two futures are available: a small-cap index future with beta 1.1 and size exposure 1.0, and a large-cap index future with beta 1.0 and size exposure -0.2, each with about 2% of residual volatility. The portfolio manager asks for market-neutral weights first, then whether size should be neutralised too.

2Your task

Find the market-neutral weights, show why the two stocks cannot also be size neutral, compute the hedge with one future and with two, and decide which version Ilavari should run.

Quick check

With only stocks A and B, long A and short B, can the pair be neutral to both market and size?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Market neutral is Rs 4 crore long A and Rs 6 crore short B, which leaves +3.8 of size exposure that two stocks cannot remove. One small-cap future removes it only by moving the weights to 6.35 and 3.65, which raises annual risk from Rs 1.76 to 1.95 crore. Two futures keep the weights and trim risk to 1.73. Size is about 3% of the variance, so run the 4 / 6 pair and hedge size at book level.

Step 1What weights make the pair market neutral?

A seesaw balances when weight times distance matches on both sides, not when the weights are equal. Beta neutrality needs long A times 1.2 to equal short B times 0.8, so the long leg is the smaller one: 1.2a = 0.8b with a + b = 10 gives a = Rs 4 crore long A and b = Rs 6 crore short B. A dollar-neutral 5 / 5 pair would carry 5 x 1.2 - 5 x 0.8 = +2.0 crore of market exposure, so a 10% market fall would cost about Rs 20 lakh for reasons unrelated to the view on A and B.

Step 2Why can two stocks not neutralise size as well?

Count the knobs. With gross fixed, two stocks leave one free number, the split between them, and one free number can satisfy one condition. Here it cannot even try: long A adds +0.5 of size per rupee and short B adds +0.3, so the market-neutral pair carries 4 x 0.5 + 6 x 0.3 = +3.8 crore of size exposure, and every long A, short B pair is net small-cap. Removing it needs a third instrument whose size exposure can be traded against the stocks.

Each exposure you remove needs one more instrumentfactor exposure, Rs croreDollar neutral, 5 / 5market +2.00size +4.00gross Rs 10.00 crMarket neutral, 4 / 6market 0size +3.80gross Rs 10.00 crPlus one futuremarket 0size 0gross Rs 14.27 crPlus two futuresmarket 0size 0gross Rs 16.54 crStocks: A beta 1.2, size 0.5; B beta 0.8, size -0.3. Small-cap future: beta 1.1, size 1.0. Large-cap future: beta 1.0, size -0.2.
The market-neutral 4 / 6 pair still carries +3.8 crore of size exposure; one small-cap future removes both exposures only by shifting the stock weights to 6.35 and 3.65, while two futures remove both and keep the weights at 4 and 6.
Step 3What does the hedge cost with one future, and with two?

With the small-cap future, solve three conditions at once: gross of Rs 10 crore in stocks, zero market and zero size. The answer is Rs 6.35 crore long A, Rs 3.65 crore short B and Rs 4.27 crore short the small-cap future. The future cancels size but also brings beta of -1.1 per rupee, so the stocks must be re-weighted toward A to put that beta back. With both futures you leave the stocks at 4 / 6, short Rs 3.11 crore of the small-cap future to remove size and buy Rs 3.43 crore of the large-cap future to put back the market exposure the short added. Either way futures add gross, margin and roll cost; the second route adds Rs 6.54 crore of futures notional.

VersionLong AShort BFuturesMarketSizeAnnual risk, Rs crore
Dollar neutral, 5 / 55.005.000.00+2.00+4.001.84
Market neutral, 4 / 64.006.000.00-0.00+3.801.76
Plus one future6.353.654.27+0.00+0.001.95
Plus two futures4.006.006.54-0.00-0.001.73
Neutralising market costs nothing but a re-weighting, while neutralising size as well needs futures, and doing it with one future raises the pair's annual risk from Rs 1.76 to 1.95 crore.
Step 4Is size worth hedging in this pair at all?

Split the risk. In the market-neutral pair, stock-specific risk is about Rs 1.73 crore a year and size risk is 3.8 x 8% = Rs 0.30 crore. Because the two add in squares, size is only about 3% of the variance, and removing it with one future backfires: moving weight into the more volatile stock A adds more stock-specific risk than the hedge takes out. Two futures do remove it cleanly, cutting risk only from 1.76 to 1.73. The view for Ilavari: run the market-neutral 4 / 6 pair and net size exposure across the whole book, where many pairs' tilts can offset before any future is bought.

Removing size with one future raises total risk; two futures trim it slightlyDollar neutral, 5 / 5Rs 1.84 crMarket neutral, 4 / 6Rs 1.76 crPlus one futureRs 1.95 crPlus two futuresRs 1.73 crstock-specific share of variancefactor share of variance
Total annual risk of the pair is Rs 1.76 crore when market neutral, rises to 1.95 crore when size is removed with one future and falls only to 1.73 crore with two, because in a two-stock pair stock-specific risk dominates.

The limitation is the risk model. Betas and size exposures are estimates with error, so a pair that is exactly neutral on paper carries some residual exposure in practice, and the exposures drift as prices move. Rebalance the hedge when the exposures move, not on a calendar.

Where candidates lose it

The usual answer splits the money 5 / 5 and calls the pair market neutral. Dollar neutral is not beta neutral; with these betas it leaves Rs 2 crore of market exposure.

The second miss is assuming more neutrality is always better. Every extra factor you remove needs another instrument, and in a two-stock pair the hedge can add more stock-specific risk than the factor risk it removes. Measure before you hedge.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How would the market-neutral weights change if B's beta rose to 1.0?
  • If Ilavari holds fifty such pairs, how would you decide whether to hedge size?
  • What happens to the hedge if A's beta is estimated with a standard error of 0.2?
← Case 057A factor model of monthly returns shows a Durbin-Watson of 0.9, residual variance rising with market volatility (Breusch-Pagan p = 0.01) and variance inflation factors of 12 on two value factors. Which assumption does each break, what happens to the coefficients and t-statistics, and what is the fix?Case 059 →A Rs 100 crore book targets 10% annual volatility. The asset's volatility is 25% today against 15% last month. What gross exposure does the target imply now and then, and what happens if volatility spikes to 40%?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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