Quant interview preparation

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1. 060You backtested a strategy and it performed brilliantly, but in live trading you keep losing money. What would you do?Time seriesHardsuperdayJump TradingQuantitative Research · Chicago · 2018

   Say this

   First I would cut the size, because the priority is to stop bleeding while I diagnose. Then I would work through the causes in order of likelihood: costs and slippage, look-ahead or survivorship bias in the backtest, overfitting from too many trials, and only last the possibility that the edge was real and has decayed.

   Then walk it

   1. Costs first, because it is the most common and the easiest to check. Compare realised fill prices against the prices the backtest assumed. If the backtest filled at mid and you are paying the spread plus impact, a strategy with a one basis point edge and a two basis point cost is a losing strategy that looked like a winner. Reconstruct the P&L attribution trade by trade against the simulated trades.
   2. Then look-ahead bias. Did any feature use data timestamped after the decision, including restated fundamentals, index membership known only later, or a corporate action applied on the announcement date rather than the effective date? Survivorship bias in the universe is the same family of error.
   3. Then overfitting. How many variants did I try before this one? If the answer is hundreds, the in-sample Sharpe is a maximum over many draws, and the deflated Sharpe is the honest number. Test on a market or a period I never touched.
   4. Then regime and decay. Plot the backtest P&L by year and see whether the edge was concentrated in one period. Check whether the alpha has been crowded out, which usually shows up as the signal still predicting but the entry price already moved.
   5. And the meta-answer, which is the one they want: I would write the diagnosis as a hypothesis with a test, not a list of possibilities. For example, if costs are the cause, the loss should scale with turnover, so I would compare the live P&L of the highest and lowest turnover sleeves. Then I would say what would make me shut it off permanently, and I would set that threshold before I looked at any more data.

   Where candidates lose it

   Jumping straight to the market regime changed. That is the excuse every losing strategy gets and it is almost never the first cause. The ordered list of costs, bias, overfitting, then decay is what a research head wants to hear, along with the instinct to reduce size before you finish diagnosing.

   Expect next

   • How exactly would you test whether costs are the cause?
   • How many strategy variants did you try, and how should that change your prior?
   • At what point do you shut it off for good?

   Reported by candidates at Jump Trading (Quantitative Research, Chicago, 2018). Source: Wall Street Oasis.

Firm tags come from public, anonymous candidate reports on Wall Street Oasis: strong signal, not sworn testimony. Firms are named as the places a question was reported, not as partners of Fin Maverick. Answers are written for this page to show how to think out loud; they are not scripts to recite.