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082

Case 082Market risk limits and VaRWarm up

A treasury holds Rs 800 crore of 10-year government bonds with modified duration 7.1 against a DV01 limit of Rs 25 lakh. Measure the breach and size an interest rate swap that brings the book inside the limit.

1The situation

Sarvik Capital's treasury desk holds Rs 800 crore face of 10-year government bonds, trading near par, with a modified duration of 7.1. The desk's rate risk limit is a DV01 of Rs 25 lakh: the book must not lose more than Rs 25 lakh for a one basis point rise in yields.

The desk cannot sell the bonds this week because they are pledged in a funding arrangement. It can enter a 10-year interest rate swap, paying fixed and receiving floating, whose DV01 is Rs 4.5 lakh per basis point for every Rs 100 crore of notional, and which gains when rates rise.

2Your task

What is the book's DV01, how big is the breach, and what swap notional brings it inside the limit?

Quick check

What is the bond book's DV01?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The book's DV01 is Rs 56.8 lakh, Rs 31.8 lakh over the limit, and at least Rs 707 crore of pay-fixed swap is needed to cure it. Each Rs 100 crore of swap offsets Rs 4.5 lakh. Rounding up to Rs 750 crore leaves a net DV01 of Rs 23.05 lakh, a small buffer under the limit. The book then carries swap spread risk instead: bond yields and swap rates do not move one for one.

Step 1How do you turn duration into a rupee limit?

Modified duration says how many per cent the price moves for a one point move in yield. A seesaw is a fair picture: the longer the plank on the bond's side, the further it swings for the same push. DV01The change in a position value, in rupees, for a one basis point, 0.01 percentage point, change in yield. turns that percentage into rupees for one basis point: Rs 800 crore times 7.1 times 0.0001, which is Rs 56.8 lakh. A 25 basis point rise, not a rare week, costs the desk about Rs 14.2 crore.

The relationship
DV01=800 crore×7.1×0.0001=Rs 56.8 lakh per bp\text{DV01} = 800 \text{ crore} \times 7.1 \times 0.0001 = \text{Rs } 56.8 \text{ lakh per bp}
800 croremarket value of the bond book, near par
7.1modified duration, per cent price change per 1 point of yield
0.0001one basis point
What it says in wordsA one basis point rise in yield knocks Rs 56.8 lakh off the book, which is the number the limit is written in.
Step 2How much swap brings the book inside the limit?

Size the hedge in the same unit as the limit. The book must shed Rs 31.8 lakh of DV01, and each Rs 100 crore of pay-fixed swap sheds Rs 4.5 lakh. Rs 31.8 lakh divided by Rs 4.5 lakh is 7.07 lots of Rs 100 crore, so at least Rs 707 crore of notional. Landing exactly on the limit leaves no room for the next trade or for duration drifting as yields move, so round to Rs 750 crore: the swap offsets Rs 33.75 lakh and the net book sits at Rs 23.05 lakh.

Rate risk measured and hedged in the same unit: DV01056.8Bond book-33.75Pay-fixed swap, Rs 750 cr23.05Net booklimit 25Rs lakh lost per basis point rise in yields
The Rs 800 crore bond book carries a DV01 of Rs 56.8 lakh against a Rs 25 lakh limit; a Rs 750 crore pay-fixed swap offsets Rs 33.75 lakh, leaving Rs 23.05 lakh, inside the limit.
Step 3What risk does the swap leave behind?

The hedged book is long government bonds and short swaps, so it no longer cares much where rates go, but it does care about the gap between them. If swap rates rise 10 basis points less than bond yields, the Rs 750 crore swap under-hedges by about Rs 3.4 crore, because Rs 33.75 lakh times 10 is about Rs 3.4 crore. That swap spreadThe gap between the swap rate and the government bond yield of the same maturity; it moves with bank credit, supply and demand. risk is smaller than the outright rate risk, but it is not zero, and the desk's limits should measure it separately.

A full hedge would take about Rs 1,262 crore of notional, which few desks want: the point of holding the bonds is usually to earn their carry. The desk has done its job when it brings DV01 under the limit with a buffer, reports the breach and the date it occurred, and adds swap spread to the risks it watches. Once the pledge lifts, selling part of the bonds is the cleaner cure.

Where candidates lose it

The frequent slip is a units error, reporting DV01 as Rs 5.68 lakh or Rs 5.68 crore. Say the formula out loud with 0.0001 in it and convert crore to lakh once, at the end.

The second is calling the hedged book riskless. A swap hedges the level of rates, not the gap between bond yields and swap rates, and interviewers expect you to name that leftover risk.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Yields fall 50 basis points and modified duration rises to 7.3. Is the hedged book still inside the limit?
  • Would you rather hedge with bond futures than swaps? What changes?
  • The limit is restated as a 99% one-day VaR. What extra input do you need?
← Case 081A small finance bank's maturity ladder shows negative gaps of Rs 300 crore and Rs 250 crore in the first two weeks, against a Rs 400 crore tolerance on the cumulative negative gap within 14 days. Find the breach and propose fixes.Case 083 →A bank values Rs 600 crore of illiquid corporate bonds off a proxy curve that independent price verification finds 35 basis points too tight. With duration 4, what is the valuation gap and how big a reserve do you hold?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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