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093

Case 093Liquidity risk and ALMHard

A bank holds level 1 and level 2A liquid assets against retail and corporate deposits with different 30-day run-off rates. Compute its liquidity coverage ratio and find the cheapest fix if it falls short.

1The situation

Umbrevar Bank holds Rs 10,000 crore of level 1 liquid assets, mostly government securities, and Rs 2,000 crore of level 2A assets, high-grade corporate bonds, which count after a 15% haircut. Its deposits and illustrative 30-day run-off rates are: stable retail Rs 40,000 crore at 5%, less stable retail Rs 20,000 crore at 10%, operational corporate deposits Rs 15,000 crore at 25%, and other corporate deposits Rs 25,000 crore at 40%. Contractual inflows over the next 30 days are Rs 3,000 crore.

The run-off rates and haircut are illustrations of the framework; the current rules should be confirmed with the regulator. The bank must hold a ratio of at least 100%. Treasury can issue 91-day certificates of deposit at about 7.5% and buy treasury bills at about 6.9%. Corporate treasurers would lock deposits beyond 30 days for about 0.5% more.

2Your task

What is the LCR, which deposits drive the requirement, and what is the cheapest way to reach 100%?

Quick check

What is Umbrevar's LCR?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The LCR is 79.3%, Rs 3,050 crore short of 100%, and other corporate deposits drive 56% of the outflows. Liquid assets are Rs 11,700 crore against Rs 14,750 crore of net outflows. The cheapest illustrative fix is to issue Rs 3,050 crore of 91-day certificates and hold the cash in treasury bills, about Rs 18 crore a year. Buying bonds with money that falls due inside 30 days cannot fix it at any size.

Step 1What does the LCR compare?

It asks whether the bank could survive a month of stress on its own cash. A household that keeps three months of expenses in a savings account can lose a job without selling the house. The liquidity coverage ratioHigh-quality liquid assets divided by net cash outflows over a 30-day stress; at 100% the bank can meet a month of stressed outflows from assets it can sell or pledge at once. divides assets that can be turned into cash immediately by the cash that would leave in a 30-day stress, net of what comes in. Each deposit type gets a run-off rate for how likely it is to leave.

Step 2How do the numbers come out?

Liquid assets: Rs 10,000 crore of level 1 plus Rs 2,000 crore of level 2A after a 15% haircut, Rs 11,700 crore. Outflows: Rs 2,000 crore from stable retail, Rs 2,000 crore from less stable retail, Rs 3,750 crore from operational corporate and Rs 10,000 crore from other corporate, Rs 17,750 crore. Less Rs 3,000 crore of inflows, net outflows are Rs 14,750 crore, and the LCR is 11,700 over 14,750, 79.3%. Level 2A is 14.5% of liquid assets, inside the usual cap, and inflows are well below the usual 75% ceiling.

Liquid assets against 30-day net outflows, Rs croreLevel 1 10,000Level 2A 1,700 after haircut11,700Liquid assetsStable retail 2,000Less stable retail 2,000Operational corporate 3,750Other corporate 10,000net 14,750gross 17,750less inflows 3,00030-day outflowsLCR 79.3%short 3,050
Umbrevar's Rs 11,700 crore of liquid assets covers only 79.3% of Rs 14,750 crore of net 30-day outflows, and Rs 10,000 crore of those outflows come from other corporate deposits, a quarter of the deposit base running off at 40%.
Step 3Which deposits drive the requirement?

Weight each deposit by its run-off rate, not its size. Stable retail deposits are 40% of deposits but produce 11% of outflows; other corporate deposits are 25% of deposits and produce 56% of outflows. A rupee of corporate money that is not tied to the customer's day-to-day payments is assumed to leave eight times as fast as a rupee of stable retail money. That is why banks pay up for retail deposits even when wholesale money is cheaper.

Step 4What is the cheapest way to reach 100%?

Test each fix on both halves of the ratio. Issuing Rs 3,050 crore of 91-day certificates adds that much to liquid assets and nothing to 30-day outflows, reaching 100% for about Rs 18.3 crore a year at a 0.6% carry cost. Paying other corporate depositors 0.5% to lock money beyond 30 days works too, but each rupee removes only 40 paise of outflow, so Rs 7,625 crore must move, about Rs 38.1 crore a year. Buying bonds with money that matures inside 30 days adds the same amount to both sides and can never lift a ratio below 100% to 100%.

Three ways to close a Rs 3,050 crore gap, cost a yearA 91-day CDs into T-billsRs 18.3 crB Lock corporate deposits > 30 daysRs 38.1 crC Bonds bought with 30-day moneyadds equal amounts to both sides: never reaches 100%Rates are illustrative. Route A must be rolled: a 91-day CD enters the 30-day window after 61 days.Route B needs Rs 7,625 crore of deposits to agree, because each rupee only removes 40 paise of outflow.
At illustrative rates, closing Umbrevar's Rs 3,050 crore gap costs about Rs 18.3 crore a year with 91-day certificates held in treasury bills and about Rs 38.1 crore by paying corporates to lock deposits, while bonds funded with 30-day money cannot close it.

Close with the catch in the cheapest route. A 91-day certificate falls inside the 30-day window after 61 days, so the bank must keep rolling a ladder of them, and the cost rises if its name weakens. The durable fix is the deposit mix: shifting corporate balances into operational accounts and growing retail deposits lowers the requirement for good.

Where candidates lose it

The most common slip is leaving out the inflows and reporting 66%, or applying the haircut to level 1 assets as well. Build the ratio line by line and say which assets are haircut.

The second is proposing to borrow short-term to buy government bonds. Money that must be repaid within 30 days is itself a 100% outflow, so the fix adds to both sides; interviewers set this up to see whether you check the denominator.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Rs 5,000 crore of other corporate deposits are reclassified as operational. What is the LCR now?
  • Why does the framework cap level 2 assets and inflows?
  • The bank passes the LCR but fails its internal 60-day stress. How can both be true?
← Case 092A fund of funds must drop one of two managers: one returned 14% with 20% volatility and a 32% drawdown, the other 11% with 10% volatility and a 12% drawdown. Compare them on risk-adjusted measures and decide which to keep.Case 094 →An FX desk is long USD 50 million and short EUR 30 million against the rupee. With daily volatilities of 0.35% and 0.5% and a correlation of 0.6, compute the one-day 99% VaR and each position's component VaR, and decide which to reduce.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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