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011

Case 011Diligence and red flagsHard

How would you approach the financial data? Ankvik Analytics claims Rs 36 crore of ARR. Rebuild ARR from last month's billing export and reconcile the gap.

General AtlanticNew York · 2023

1The situation

Ankvik Analytics sells pricing analytics software to retailers. Its deck claims ARR of Rs 36 crore, and the founders explain that they took last month's invoices and multiplied by twelve. The data room holds last month's billing export, which totals Rs 3.00 crore.

Reading the export line by line: Rs 24 lakh is an annual contract with one retailer, invoiced upfront for the full year. Rs 15 lakh is one-off implementation and onboarding work. Rs 8 lakh is monthly billing to three customers who have given notice and will leave at their renewal next month. The remaining Rs 2.53 crore is monthly subscriptions from 61 customers on rolling contracts.

2Your task

Rebuild ARR from the export, reconcile it to the claimed Rs 36 crore one adjustment at a time, and say how you would check the rebuilt number against other data.

Quick check

Which single error inflates the founders' Rs 36 crore the most?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Rebuilt ARR is Rs 30.6 crore, 15% below the Rs 36 crore claim. Multiplying last month's invoices by twelve counts the upfront annual contract twelve times, which is the largest error at Rs 2.64 crore. Annualising one-off implementation adds Rs 1.80 crore, and customers who have given notice add Rs 0.96 crore. Check the rebuilt number against deferred revenue and bank receipts before trusting either.

Step 1Where do you start with a company's financial data?

If a shopkeeper tells you he earns Rs 30,000 a day, you would look at the till roll before believing it, and then at the bank deposits before believing the till roll. In diligence, trust runs from the documents furthest from the founders' hands: signed contracts and bank receipts first, invoices next, management reports after, and the deck last. Here the claim is a deck number built from invoices, so rebuild it from the invoice lines and then test it against the bank and the balance sheet.

ARRAnnual recurring revenue: the yearly value of subscription contracts in force today, counting only revenue that repeats. has one job: to say how much revenue repeats over the next year if nothing else changes. So every line in the export gets one test. Will this rupee recur, and how often? Multiplying a month by twelve passes that test only when every invoice in the month is a monthly subscription that will still be there next year. This export fails on three lines.

Last month's billing export, read line by lineInvoice typeRs lakhMonthly subscriptions, 61 customers253Annual plan, Dhruvak Retail, 12 months241Implementation and onboarding152Monthly subscriptions, 3 customers on notice83Total invoiced3001Paid once a year: Rs 24 lakh of ARR,not 24 x 12 = Rs 2.88 crore2One-off work: not recurring at all,remove it from ARR entirely3Notice given: billed this month,gone at renewal, so out of ARR
Of Rs 3.00 crore invoiced last month, only Rs 2.53 crore is monthly subscriptions that will recur; the annual contract recurs once a year, implementation does not recur, and the customers on notice will not renew.
Step 2How do you rebuild ARR line by line?

Monthly subscriptions from continuing customers recur twelve times: Rs 2.53 crore times 12 is Rs 30.36 crore. The annual contract recurs once: add Rs 0.24 crore. Implementation recurs zero times. The leavers recur zero times beyond next month. Rebuilt ARR is Rs 30.36 crore plus Rs 0.24 crore, Rs 30.6 crore.

The relationship
ARR=12×(3.00−0.24−0.15−0.08)+0.24=12×2.53+0.24=30.6\text{ARR} = 12 \times (3.00 - 0.24 - 0.15 - 0.08) + 0.24 = 12 \times 2.53 + 0.24 = 30.6
3.00last month's total invoices, Rs crore
0.24the annual contract, removed from the monthly line and added back once
0.15one-off implementation
0.08billing to customers who have given notice
What it says in wordsTake only the monthly bills that will keep coming, multiply them by twelve, and add each annual contract once.
Step 3How do you reconcile the claim to the rebuild?

Walk from Rs 36 crore down, one adjustment per bar, so the founders can see exactly which line you dispute. The annual contract is the largest error: counted in a month that is then multiplied by twelve, its Rs 24 lakh becomes Rs 2.88 crore, an overstatement of Rs 2.64 crore. Implementation annualised is Rs 1.80 crore that never repeats. The leavers are Rs 0.96 crore of ARR that is already gone in substance. The three together are the whole Rs 5.4 crore gap.

From the claimed Rs 36 crore to ARR that survives the data, Rs croreVertical axis starts at Rs 26 crore36.0Claimed: lastmonth x 12-2.64Annual contractcounted 12 times-1.80Implementation fees-0.96Customers onnotice30.6Rebuilt ARR
Ankvik's claimed ARR of Rs 36 crore falls to a rebuilt Rs 30.6 crore after removing Rs 2.64 crore for the annual contract counted twelve times, Rs 1.80 crore of implementation and Rs 0.96 crore from customers on notice.
Step 4How do you check the rebuilt number against other data?

Two cross-checks, each from a document the deck did not touch. First, the balance sheet: an annual contract invoiced upfront should leave about Rs 22 lakh of deferred revenueCash or invoices received for service not yet delivered. It sits as a liability and is released into revenue month by month. after one month. If deferred revenue is much larger, there are more annual contracts than the export shows; if it is zero, the contract may not be what it seems. Second, the bank: monthly subscription receipts should be close to Rs 2.6 crore a month, allowing for timing. A rebuilt ARR is only as good as its tie to cash, so a rupee that never reached the bank does not count.

Then read the gap with judgement, not accusation. Multiplying a month by twelve is a common shortcut among first-time founders, not proof of bad faith. But a Series B priced on Rs 36 crore is priced on a number 15% too high, and the price should move with the number. The question to ask next is how many other annual contracts were billed in earlier months, because a company with lumpy annual billing can show almost any ARR depending on which month it picks.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is spotting the implementation fees, removing them, and stopping. That is the obvious one-off; the larger error is the annual contract, which looks like recurring revenue and is, just not twelve times over.

The second is leaving customers who have given notice in ARR because they are still paying this month. ARR is a forward-looking number; a customer who has resigned is not part of it.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The annual contract was invoiced last month but the cash has not arrived. Does it belong in ARR?
  • What would you look for in the prior eleven months of billing exports?
  • How should the price of the round move if rebuilt ARR is 15% below the claim?

Asked at General Atlantic, Information Technology (IT), New York, 2023 (Wall Street Oasis): Question about how I would approach financial data

← Case 010A growth fund owns 14% of Shikharik Consumer and the company lists at Rs 6,000 crore. The fund can sell only part of its stake in the IPO and must hold the rest through a lock-up. What does it actually realise?Case 012 →Chaivik Beverages offers to buy back an angel's 1.5% stake at a 30% discount to its last round. What is the price, what multiple does the angel make, and what happens to everyone else?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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