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015

Case 015Company pitchCore

Pitch Streamkosh Media, a regional-language streaming and ad-tech company that looks expensive at 33x EBITDA. Make the case on growth-adjusted EV/EBITDA, and say what has to be true.

1The situation

Streamkosh Media runs a streaming service in six regional languages and sells the advertising inventory around it through its own ad-tech platform. Revenue is Rs 1,100 crore, growing 28% a year, at an 18% EBITDA margin. It holds Rs 300 crore of net cash, and a late-stage round values its equity at Rs 6,900 crore.

Five comparable media and ad-tech companies, all invented for this case, trade at 20x to 35x EBITDA with revenue growth of 10% to 20%: Peer A at 20x and 10%, Peer B at 24x and 13%, Peer C at 28x and 15%, Peer D at 31x and 18%, and Peer E at 35x and 20%.

2Your task

Pitch Streamkosh as an investment in a few minutes: is it expensive, what does a growth-adjusted view say, and what has to be true for the pitch to work?

Quick check

What is Streamkosh's EV to EBITDA multiple?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

At 33.3x EBITDA Streamkosh is at the top of the peer range, but per point of growth it is the cheapest in the set: 1.19 turns against a peer median of 1.85. The price already assumes growth slows to about 18%, a peer-like rate. The pitch is that 28% holds for several years. It works only if regional advertising keeps growing and margins hold as content spending rises.

Step 1Is Streamkosh expensive?

Begin with the plain multiple, because the partner will. Enterprise value is equity less net cash: Rs 6,900 crore minus Rs 300 crore, Rs 6,600 crore. EBITDA is 18% of Rs 1,100 crore, Rs 198 crore. EV over EBITDA is 33.3x, near the top of a peer range of 20x to 35x, so on the headline number Streamkosh is expensive. Say that first; a pitch that hides the obvious objection loses the room.

Step 2What does the growth-adjusted view say?

Two flats at the same price per square foot are not equally priced if one is in a neighbourhood where prices are rising twice as fast. A multiple is a price for future earnings, so a faster-growing business deserves a higher one, and the fair comparison is the multiple per point of growth. This is the logic of the PEG ratio applied to EV/EBITDA. Streamkosh: 33.3 divided by 28 is 1.19. The peers run from 1.72 to 2.00, with a median of 1.85. Streamkosh pays fewer turns of EBITDA per point of growth than any peer.

Multiple paid against growth: Streamkosh sits below the peer line20x25x30x35x40x10%15%20%25%30%Peer median: 1.85x per point of growthPeer APeer BPeer CPeer DPeer EStreamkosh: 33.3x at 28%52xat peer ratioRevenue growth, last year
Peers trade at about 1.85 turns of EBITDA per point of revenue growth, which at 28% growth would mean 52x, while Streamkosh trades at 33.3x and sits well below the line.
CompanyEV/EBITDAGrowthTurns per point of growthNext-year EV/EBITDA
Peer A20x10%2.0018.2x
Peer B24x13%1.8521.2x
Peer C28x15%1.8724.3x
Peer D31x18%1.7226.3x
Peer E35x20%1.7529.2x
Streamkosh33.3x28%1.1926.0x
On next year's EBITDA, assuming each company's margin holds and its growth repeats, Streamkosh trades at 26.0x, inside the peer range of 18.2x to 29.2x, while growing faster than every peer.
Step 3What has to be true for the pitch to work?

Turn the ratio round to find what the price assumes. At the peer median, 33.3x would be fair for a company growing about 18%. So today's price already assumes Streamkosh slows to a peer-like growth rate; the pitch is a bet that it does not. Three things must hold for that. Regional-language advertising must keep taking budget from national campaigns. The ad-tech platform must keep its take rate as larger advertisers negotiate. And content costs must not grow faster than revenue, or the 18% margin falls and the EBITDA under the multiple shrinks.

Then name the limits of the tool, because a sharp partner will. A growth-adjusted multiple assumes value rises in a straight line with growth, which it does not: high growth that lasts two years is worth far less than moderate growth that lasts ten. One year of growth is also a thin base, and advertising revenue is cyclical, so a weak year for brand spending would hit Streamkosh harder than a subscription business. Close with the view: the headline multiple is high, the growth-adjusted price is the lowest in its peer set, and the case rests on how long 28% growth can last.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is pitching the growth and never computing the multiple, or computing it on equity value instead of EV. Rs 6,900 crore over Rs 198 crore is 34.8x; the Rs 300 crore of cash belongs to shareholders, not to the business being valued.

The second is treating the growth-adjusted ratio as proof. It says the price assumes peer-like growth; it says nothing about whether 28% will last, and that is where the questions will go.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Growth falls to 18% next year and the margin to 15%. What is the forward multiple, and is it still cheap?
  • Why might the market rightly pay less per point of growth for advertising revenue than for subscription revenue?
  • Which single piece of data would you ask management for to test the pitch?
← Case 014Notevik Payments raised a Rs 5 crore convertible note with interest, a discount and a valuation cap. When the Series A prices, how many shares does the noteholder receive?Case 016 →What do you think about this portfolio company? Nirikvik Logistics has grown revenue 58% since its last round, but margins are down, burn is up and eight months of cash are left. Is it a better or worse business than the one you invested in?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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