Tell me about a software trend you follow: AI assistants for accounting practices. Turn it into a thesis for Ganakvik AI, which sells to India's CA firms. Size the reachable market and say what must be true.

The reachable market is about Rs 518 crore a year, and 15% adoption gives about Rs 78 crore of ARR in five years across every vendor. That is a thesis only if one company can take most of it and the market grows beyond the base assumptions. At 60% share the leader has about Rs 47 crore, a good business but not yet a venture outcome; smaller firms, a second product and higher adoption must all come true together.

A trend is an observation; a thesis is a bet with numbers attached. Saying people are buying more scooters is a trend. Saying a scooter-servicing chain in tier two cities can reach Rs 100 crore of revenue because there will be this many scooters, each serviced this often, at this price, is a thesis. The move is to name the customer, count them, price what they would pay, and apply a believable adoption rate, so each step is an assumption someone can challenge. Interviewers ask about a trend to see whether you can make this move, not whether you can list buzzwords.

Here: 90,000 firms, 30% with five or more staff, is 27,000 firms. Eight seats each is 2,16,000 seats. Rs 2,000 a month is Rs 24,000 a year, so the reachable market is 2,16,000 times Rs 24,000, Rs 518.4 crore a year. Fifteen per cent adoption in five years is Rs 77.8 crore of ARR, shared among everyone selling such tools.

Not on these numbers alone. A leader with 60% of adopted spend would have about Rs 47 crore of ARR. That is a good software company, but a venture fund usually needs a few companies that become several times larger to carry the whole portfolio, so the thesis must explain how the market grows, not just how Ganakvik wins it. Say that plainly; an interviewer respects a candidate who sizes a market and then admits it is small.

Three things, each a test you could run. First, smaller firms buy: if the other 63,000 firms take 3 seats each, the seat count nearly doubles to 405,000. Second, price rises with a second product, such as audit or payroll compliance, taking a seat to Rs 4,000 a month. Third, adoption reaches 30%, because AI tools that save hours in tax season spread by word of mouth among accountants. Together those give a market of about Rs 1,944 crore and ARR of about Rs 583 crore at 30% adoption, Rs 350 crore for a 60% leader.

Close with what would kill it. If the large accounting software makers build the same assistant into products CA firms already pay for, Ganakvik becomes a feature. So the thesis also needs a reason the specialist wins: deeper Indian tax and filing workflows, or data from thousands of firms that improves the assistant faster than a generalist can. The limitation of the sizing is that every input is an assumption; the value is in showing which three would have to move.