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053

Case 053Diligence and red flagsCore

Interviewer-led case: Kodvik Dev Tools' ARR growth fell from 60% to 25% in a year. Ask for the data you need, find the driver, and say what you would ask next.

Insight PartnersNew York · 2021

1The situation

Kodvik Dev Tools sells a code testing tool to software teams on annual subscriptions. The interviewer opens with one fact: ARR growth has slowed from 60% last year to 25% this year. Every other number comes only when you ask for it.

If you ask for the ARR bridge, you get it. Last year opening ARR was Rs 25 crore, new-logo ARR Rs 8 crore, expansion Rs 9 crore and churn Rs 2 crore. This year opening ARR was Rs 40 crore, new-logo ARR again Rs 8 crore, expansion Rs 5 crore and churn Rs 3 crore.

2Your task

What drove the slowdown, and what is the next question you would ask the company?

Quick check

Which part of the bridge did most of the damage?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The slowdown is mostly existing customers expanding less, not a sales problem. Of the 35 points lost, expansion accounts for 23.5: net revenue retention fell from 128% to 105%. New-logo sales held at Rs 8 crore, which costs 12 points only because the base grew. The churn rate improved slightly. The next question goes to existing customers: which cohorts stopped adding seats or usage, and why.

Step 1What do you ask for first when growth slows?

Ask for the ARR bridgeA walk from opening to closing annual recurring revenue: plus new customers, plus expansion from existing customers, minus churn and downgrades., because growth is only the sum of its parts. A shop whose sales growth slows could be finding fewer new shoppers or selling less to regulars; the till total alone cannot tell you which. In an interviewer-led case, the first question you ask is scored as heavily as the answer, and a request for the bridge shows you know growth has components.

Same new-logo rupees, smaller expansion: the two ARR bridges, Rs croreLast year: 25 to 40, growth 60%25Opening+8New logos+9Expansion-2Churn40ClosingThis year: 40 to 50, growth 25%40Opening+8New logos+5Expansion-3Churn50ClosingShaded: the two bars that changed
Kodvik added Rs 8 crore of new-logo ARR in both years, but expansion fell from Rs 9 crore to Rs 5 crore and churn rose from Rs 2 crore to Rs 3 crore, so a base that grew from 25 to 40 last year grew only from 40 to 50 this year.
Step 2Why compare the lines in points of growth rather than in rupees?

Rupees mislead here: churn rose by half in rupees, which sounds alarming. Dividing each line by opening ARR turns the bridge into points of growth, and on that basis the churn rate improved from 8% to 7.5%. New logos were 32 points last year and 20 this year, only because Rs 8 crore sits on Rs 40 crore instead of Rs 25 crore. Expansion collapsed from 36 points to 12.5. Net revenue retention, opening ARR plus expansion minus churn over opening ARR, fell from 128% to 105%.

Rs croreLast yearPointsThis yearPoints
Opening ARR2540
New logos832.0820.0
Expansion936.0512.5
Churn(2)(8.0)(3)(7.5)
Closing ARR4060.05025.0
Net revenue retention128%105%
Measured as points of opening ARR, expansion fell from 36 to 12.5, new logos from 32 to 20 on an unchanged Rs 8 crore, and churn improved from 8 to 7.5, taking growth from 60% to 25% and net retention from 128% to 105%.
Growth in points of opening ARR: where the 35 points wentLast year-8.0new 32exp 36net 60%This year-7.5new 20exp 12.5net 25%Change in points of growth:Expansion -23.5Churn rate +0.5New logos -12.0: the same Rs 8 crore on a bigger baseTotal: 60% to 25%, a fall of 35 points, two thirds of it from existing customers expanding less.
Of the 35 points of growth Kodvik lost, expansion accounts for 23.5 and the bigger base for 12 on new logos, while the churn rate improved by half a point, so two thirds of the slowdown comes from existing customers.
Step 3Is flat new-logo ARR a problem too?

Yes, but a smaller and more predictable one. To keep new logos at 32 points on a Rs 40 crore base, Kodvik would have needed Rs 12.8 crore of new-logo ARR, 60% more than it booked. Every growing company faces this: the same sales team adds fewer points each year unless it grows too. Had expansion held at 36% of the base, it would have added Rs 14.4 crore instead of Rs 5 crore, and growth would have been about 49%. The expansion miss is the surprise; the base effect was arithmetic you could have forecast a year ago.

Step 4What is the next question you ask?

Go to the customers who stopped expanding. Ask for expansion by cohort and by customer size: did last year's big expanders hit a ceiling, or did a pricing change stop seats from being added? A code testing tool usually expands as customers hire engineers, so a hiring freeze among tech customers would show up exactly here and could reverse. A competitor winning the second team inside each account would not reverse. Those two explanations lead to different valuations, and the interviewer wants to see you ask for the data that separates them.

Where candidates lose it

Most candidates see growth fall and blame sales, then spend the case on pipeline and quota. New-logo rupees were flat, so the sales team did the same job as last year; the story is in existing customers.

The second trap is reading churn in rupees and calling it the problem. As a share of the base it improved; say that, and you show the interviewer you normalise before you judge.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Kodvik's expansion comes 70% from seat growth. What would you ask about its customers' hiring?
  • How would you forecast next year's growth from this bridge?
  • What would the bridge look like if a large customer had downgraded rather than churned?

Asked at Insight Partners, Generalist, New York, 2021 (Wall Street Oasis): back to back 30 minute cases, interview led, about tech

← Case 052Hridvik Devices, a cardiac monitor maker, has no revenue and two regulatory gates ahead. Value it today with a risk-adjusted NPV and say what drives the answer.Case 054 →Paper LBO of a profitable software company: Cloudvik Software is bought at 15x EBITDA with 5x of debt and sold at 15x in year five. What are the MOIC and the IRR?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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